Leaders rejoice! Trailers panic! It’s April!
by Patrick Cloghessy
I am sick of Trevor Story. Ditto Aaron Judge (pictured) and Matt Carpenter. Alex Bregman’s repeat season has stumbled out of the gate. I always knew Eddie Rosario was never that good.
I don’t want to overreact, but Daniel Murphy, Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar? WTF? Why do the fantasy baseball gods hate me?
Now Trea Turner! When will it end? Have there been more injuries or contract extensions? I lost count.
There will be more injuries, and more 2-for-37 days. But in the earnest early days of the season, reactions are outsized. After months of pining for baseball, there is no deeper pit than empty stat lines.
Patience, I know, patience. These guys will hit. Chris Sale (E+,K+) will be fine. So will Corey Kluber (ER,KK).
Or will they?
In fantasy baseball, everything is great…until it isn’t.
Apprehension creeps at the edges of the mind. Doubt clouds over the sunniest of draft results.
Then Cody Bellinger hits a granny. Josh Hader bulldozes another ninth inning. Sixteen points gained in the standings today.
It’s all going to be okay.
In fact, Jacob deGrom has the best stuff of any pitcher, ever. Christian Yelich is silencing all of the fools who dared whisper “regression” or “unsustainable HR/flyball rate”. Trey Mancini is a right-handed Jim Gentile.
And Mike Trout is getting even better.
Sure, Murph went down. But that cleared the way for Ryan McMahon (p,a). He’ll slide nicely from the reserve list into the starting lineup, though it may take a little longer for that 2B eligibility. Kolten Wong (a) is here to hold that down. Is his prospect pedigree finally shining through? BABS has her questions, but hope is a strong emotion.
Hope is embodied in Enrique Hernandez (p,s,a). He secured an everyday role, even batting leadoff against southpaws. He was cheap at the draft. The hope was that his BABS attributes would play, and so far, they have. Those that took the chance may have found something to ameliorate the doldrums of a slow start, and (here’s hoping) a multi-position eligible lineup mainstay.
Pete Alonso (PW | -AV) is doing his best Aaron Judge impression. Matthew Boyd ( |-ER) and his slider are leading all SP in K/9 (18.26). Their hot starts have owners patting themselves on the back. And why not? It feels good. Unfortunately, victory laps do not stave off regression. Feeling good does not win leagues. Emotion, for our purposes, can be a problem. It’s an unavoidable, natural and necessary part of our process. How hard should we fight against it? How much of it should we allow in?
At this juncture, it’s probably wise to pump the brakes. Resist the urge to make any declarative statements. Should our antennae be raised? Most definitely. Hot starts can lead to positive season-long results, just as slow beginnings can be difficult to dig out from under. It’s just too early to be certain if what we are seeing belongs in either category.
So tell your friends your staff of Boyd, Luis Castillo (e,k), Carlos Rodon ( |INJ) and Freddy Peralta (KK,-ER | EX) are going to carry you to a fantasy title. Just don’t believe it. Is it possible? Sure. Likely? Much less so.
Go ahead, ride Matt Chapman (PW | -inj,e), Yoan Moncada (p,s | -AV,e) and Joc Pederson (PW,a) to the top of the batting categories. Could they keep you there? This group has potential, but temper expectations.
If small sample-size alarmism is not your thing, it’s tough to find much actionable data this early in the season. Pitch velocity, however, could be of use. Freddy Peralta’s velo is up. Lucas Giolito ( |-ER,e), Sandy Alcantara ( |-ER,inj-,EX), Matt Boyd, Mike Clevinger (e,k) and Julio Urias (e,k) are up as well. The results on the field have been positive for each player. The idea here is that while the pitch velocity can continue, the results could and probably will vary. Still, it’s a nice thing to file away for leagues in which some of these players are free agents. For the others, if you have been offered a trade, this could help inform your decision.
This weekend, Trevor Story (P+,s,a) will play his first games at Coors Field. He probably hasn’t even slept in his own bed yet. Remember what happened when Matt Carpenter (P+,a) struggled last April and wound up on the waiver wire? Someone got a category mover. Half of Aaron Judge’s (P+,a) friends are on the DL. It’s the first week of April. Fantasy baseball is back! Baseball is here until November.
The more shallow the league, the more actionable the data can be. I know 13 AB is a laughable sample, and I’d prefer you didn’t tell Ron, but I’m sick of looking at “Jesse Winker .000” on my roster. It’s a shallow league so I can drop Winker (p,AV) for Kike Hernandez (p,s,a), Kolten Wong with 3 recent HRs (a), or Ketel Marte (SB,AV) as the league grants waiver claims based on standings, worst team first.
Even if these guys all hit the same way for the rest of the season, it’s still better to make a move than sit still. Nobody is going to pick up Winker in a shallow league right now. An unwanted player might as well be on my bench as I can usually pick him up again later, while those other options will disappear shortly.
One might have to stick with Sale or Severino in an AL-League until August, but in a 10-team mixed league with 21-man rosters, with guys BABS had in the same general range anyway, making a move to the player who has proven he can hit a baseball seems real easy to make.
In those leagues it won’t be long before I’m looking for Josh Donaldson (PW,a) equivalents, and trying to jog my memory on who were those Andrelton Simmons (s,AV) clones mentioned at First Pitch in the New Jersey Marriott. Donaldson and Simmons might get picked up by others so I’ll need a bigger sample before making those moves. Maybe 30 AB? Maybe 35 to be safe.
I hope Sale is OK. I traded Meadows to get him and in a 12-team AL league, there are few post-draft options.
Thanks for the reminder that the very point of BABS is longer term, less emotional thinking. I’ll have her on the couch with me on Sunday night at FAAB time. In fact, I generally simply list the most interesting FAs with their BABS rating before I bid.
Yep. My team (12 team NL 4×4 auction) is build around Story, Carpenter, and Votto, so… But I did grab Kiki at a bargain price, and have Acuna and Albies as bargain keepers. Deep breathes. No panic.
Counting on small sample to become meaningless as 6 games and ~360 AB’s have yielded 4 HRs and 25 RBI’s. Should be loaded later with Betts, J. Ramirez, Blackmon, Casty, Cano, and Rendon.
Koop – Fast Eddie…take it from a Red Sox fan, he will be fine…I would be more worried about them over-managing his innings in September than whether or not he will turn it around now!
You must have been looking at my rosters in both leagues. Ready to jump off a bridge! Ha
Where is Shandler? Isn’t this his website?