Tout Wars, Take 2: BABS strikes back

I spent the summer of 2018 with the single goal of finishing higher than last place. BABS is not proud, but I can’t blame her. She is who she is. I just performed poorly. So I decided to take a different approach for this year. I would leave less to chance.

Once again, the player projections are irrelevant. What you think players are worth is irrelevant. All that matters is the marketplace. Here is the description that I have used time and time again:

“If you are convinced that a player is worth $25 and land him for $21, you will have overpaid if the rest of your league sees him as no more than a $19 player. Even if he is really worth $30.”

And in a 15-team mixed league, valuation is even less precise because there are still tons of productive players in the dollar pool. “Stars and scrubs” is the only way to go. The step-by-step approach:

1. Decide who you want.
2. Get them.

The “deciding who you want” was the part that I left up to BABS last year. I just let her pop up draftable players as the draft crept along. But not this year.

For my 2019 draft, I decided who I wanted ahead of time. I typically don’t like to target specific players, but if my personal draftable pool was deep enough, with an ample supply of fallback options, there would be less left to chance.

I identified the players who I’d be willing to go to the mat for, guys who would likely cost me into the $30s and $40s, but price was no object. I had options for each of the rough dollar tiers. And then I had about 75 potentially productive end-gamers.

Here are the full draft results (click on Mixed Auction). For the first time ever, I am linking to the actual Excel spreadsheet I took into the Tout Wars draft. My target list is the second tab; all the names listed there are bolded in the BABS spreadsheet on the primary tab. Those in red were the players I thought might drop to the end-game.

How did it go?

Well… here is my roster, in order of acquisition cost. You can judge for yourself.

1B – Paul Goldschmidt ($43)                   F   (PW,AV*)

Draft dynamics are tough to assess in advance, but Goldy was one of my primary targets in this OBP league. Problem was, some of my secondary targets went early and topped out in the mid-$30s. I decided to wait Goldy out, but apparently so were a few other people. I’m not disappointed in the price because a carefully-crafted BABS end-game should be all profit.

SP – Gerrit Cole ($36)                    F (ER,KK)

The biggest problem with drafting in New York is that the league is filled with Mets and Yankee fans. In a year when I might finally consider drafting a few of my hometown faves, the markups were steep all around. I would have liked Jacob deGrom, but I didn’t feel like going $40 when there were several other targets who were nearly as good. Cole (pictured) was one.

OF – Charlie Blackmon ($36)                   F (p,s,AV)

I think I was targeting Rhys Hoskins here, but opted to drop when he hit $34. In retrospect, I waited on a few players too long and it ended up costing me a few dollars each time. Still, there’s the end game.

2B – Whit Merrifield ($28)                       F (SB,AV)

I needed to build a speed core and expected to pay around $30 for him.

MI – Dee Gordon ($14)                  F (S+,AV-)

Gordon was not on my target list but I was surprised when the bidding stopped at $13. After having already rostered Merrifield, I didn’t need a guy like this, but it did allow me to pull back on chasing more speed later. BABS still likes him anyway.

OF – Nick Castellanos ($13)                     F (PW,AV)

Several of the Touts thought this was my best buy. I did expect to go higher.

SP – David Price ($12)                   M (e,k)

I wasn’t thrilled with the pricing on a lot of the mid-tier starters. Although I was content to stock my staff with cheap arms, I figured I should chase at least one more before that point.

RP – Corey Knebel ($12)               (E+,K+,sv-)

With Jeremy Jeffress hurting and Josh Hader more valuable in earlier innings, I consider Knebel a front-liner and BABS sees him as having the highest skills profile. Hader went for $8.

RP – Craig Kimbrel ($9)                (E+,K+,SV)

I don’t know if you’d consider this a risky play. Is there really a chance that Kimbrel won’t eventually sign somewhere to be a closer? This doesn’t technically fall under the BABS liability limits, but I was pretty successful in avoiding the INJ and EX players, so I will count this against my risk budget.

CA – Danny Jansen ($8)                  M (* | EX)

He wasn’t on my target list, but Yasmani Grandal went high ($22) and the only thing you absolutely need from catchers is that they don’t hurt you. There are a handful of catchers with high batting average floors and that is all you can ask for at $8.

3B – Jake Lamb ($7)                       F (p,* | INJ)

I really wanted Justin Turner here, but stopped bidding when he hit $18. That was probably not too smart considering the 3B pool was drying up at that point.

SP – Brad Peacock ($7)                  M (ER,KK)

BABS loves Peacock’s skills set, and so do I, but paying up for a No. 5 starter – especially one who could easily be slid back into pen work – is not a good thing. I draft by the mantra “Draft skills, not roles” and you can see the asset group where these skills reside. And now we hope.

SS – Ketel Marte ($6)                      F (SB,AV)

Not on my target list. You might be wondering, “Why did you put together a target list if you keep drafting players who are not on it?” It’s a fair question. This acquisition was a clear hiccup. I definitely did not need another player with this profile, but the multi-positional eligibility was alluring for $6.

CO – Jay Bruce ($3)                         M (P+,a | INJ)

Another BABS fave, and fellow owner Scott Swanay called it after I bought him. Now I know who is reading my stuff. I’m so proud of her.

OF – Joc Pederson ($3)                   F (PW,a)

I got into an odd bidding war with Jeff Zimmerman over Randal Grichuk, the last (P+) guy on the board but also an OBP sink. I expected to get him somewhere between $5 and $10, but the bidding kept going; I dropped when he hit $13. I’m happier with Pederson, despite the possibility of less certain playing time.

OF – Corey Dickerson ($3)                                    F (p,AV)

I was in on the bidding for targets Jesse Winker, Ryan Braun, Austin Meadows and Hunter Renfroe, but my wallet had already thinned. I decided to nominate Dickerson – who was not a target – just to accelerate my trek to the end game, and expected him to go to at least $5. I didn’t have to say $3, but I thought he was still a reasonable buy at that price. I would not have gone to $5.

UT – Kendrys Morales ($3)                       M (p)

Another non-target hiccup. Morales was an exhibit in my promotional material to demonstrate how he could potentially post a similar stat line to Kris Bryant. The point was to introduce readers to the idea that stats are deceptive and open the door to talking about BABS. But Morales is not a great BABS play and was not a good fit for my roster. I heard his name while I was distracted with something else and tossed in a token bid.

SP – Ross Stripling ($3)                 M (ER,k | inj-)

It was the end-game at this point. I had left myself enough money to pick off a bunch of BABS plays. This is one.

SP – Kenta Maeda ($3)                    M (e,KK)

Here’s another. You can’t go wrong with cheap Dodgers pitchers.

RP – Shane Greene ($2)                  (k,sv-)

If there was any uncertainty with Knebel or Kimbrel, I figured it would be good to have a backup who actually did have the closer’s role. For now, anyway.

SP – Corbin Burnes ($1)                M (e,k | EX)

Another cheap BABS end-game grab. I was kinda sad that I didn’t have more spots for these types of guys.

SW – Enrique Hernandez ($1)                 F (p,s,a*)

I saved this last spot for him, or Wilmer Flores, in quest of a multi-positional guy. I forgot that I had already rostered Ketel Marte.

CA – Chance Sisco ($1)                   M (p | -AV,EX)

“Failed Rookies for $200, Alex.” Yes, he might completely destroy the OBP foundation I’ve built, but he’s having a great spring (not that it means anything), so maybe he won’t. Worst case, I punt a $1 catcher.

Rsv – Luke Weaver             M ( | e)

I was champing at the bit for the reserves so I could grab players I wanted without being outbid. Guys with good histories, perhaps spotty recent performances, and good springs (not that it means anything) were particularly interesting targets. Weaver has a 1.59 ERA with 10 strikeouts and no walks in 11 innings this spring.

 Rsv – Jung-ho Kang             ( | e)

At the time of the draft, Kang was outplaying incumbent Colin Moran, with five home runs. Less than 48 hours later, he lands the 3B job and I look like a genius. I am hoping this is the start of a run of good luck.

 Rsv – Marcus Stroman                   M ( | INJ)

Another reclamation project, Stroman has a 2.19 ERA with 13 strikeouts and one walk in 12 innings this spring.

 Rsv – Ryan Borucki                        ( | EX)

So, I went back to the well with last year’s bad decision/good outcome pick, but not because of the good outcome. I was committed to stay away this year until I read Eno Sarris’ piece in TheAthletic about pitchers who have increased their velocity this spring. Borucki’s average fastball velocity last year was 91.5 mph but this spring he’s sitting at 94-95mph. That’s significant, but the results so far are just okay.

 Rsv – Jeremy Jeffress                     (ER,k,sv-)

Some more Knebel insurance. Funny how I wrote that I was confident that Knebel would be the primary closer, yet I drafted all these contingency plans. I couldn’t ignore the handcuff here.

 Rsv – Hernan Perez                        (s | inj-)

And yet another multi-position insurance policy. These guys are important, but rostering a bunch of them in lieu of possibly better players… well… I’m not sure I did that, but Perez might still have been a bit of overkill. Actually Marte was the one I didn’t need.

Missed Opportunities ($6)

That is what I had left when it was all over. Obviously, it’s better to spend all your money, but again, in a mixed league setting, there is so much variability and so much talent left to mine over the next six months. I do have one handicap in that my poor finish last year means I start 2019 with a lesser FAAB budget, but that only means I need to be more careful with those in-season overbids.

As for the BABS asset targets, I did fine with the pitchers but fell short with hitters. I can thank some of the missteps for that. Morales was a mistake and I probably should have targeted a more BABS-friendly 3Bman than Lamb. If Kang can tap back into the (P+,a) skills he demonstrated in 2016, that will help.

I nailed the liabilities — only four Injury and three Experience marks on the entire roster. Risk avoidance is a part of my DNA but that did not serve me well last year. Many players do overcome those obstacles, but some habits are tough to break.

Onward…