BABS loves the 2019 Outfield pool

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by Doug Gruber

Welcome to the outfield, where the skills are extreme, diverse and plentiful…more than enough for even the deepest mixed league. From superstars to end game speculations, BABS provides bountiful possibilities to fill every owner’s outfield roster needs.

Extreme skills are rare and treasured. The outfield pool contains 11 mid/full-time players who carry the coveted BABS “+” rating. Are you searching for multi-category players? BABS has identified seven triple asset outfielders, along with a deep supporting cast of 33 double asset players. More important, the cream of this crop comes with little risk, as about two-thirds of the top 25 rated outfielders have a clean sheet on the liability ledger! When combined with the additional 43 OFs who bring at least a single asset, there is a lot to love within this year’s outfield choices.

BABS also says you don’t need to pay top dollar or grab all your outfielders in the early rounds. In fact, there are 11 multi-asset mid/full-time OFs with ADPs outside the top 200. Another dozen part-time players offer two or more skills, some of whom are being bypassed in early drafts.

Let’s check out the BABS ratings for this deep list of outfielders:

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help), Pk (Park help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Av (Batting Ineffectiveness), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Nw (New team), Pk (Park hurt), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt)

At the top, BABS gives the slight edge to Mookie Betts (PW,SB,A+) over Mike Trout (P+,s,AV) in the battle of current and former AL MVPs. BABS also concurs that NL MVP Christian Yelich (p,s,A+) and triple crown threat J.D. Martinez (P+, AV) possess outstanding skills worthy of a first round selection.

Beyond the obvious stars, the (P+,a*) group provides our first market leverage opportunity. Rhys Hoskins can be selected more than a full round after the mega hyped Yankee duo of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. A bigger opportunity exists in the (PW,AV) class, where Matt Kemp is a market afterthought at ADP 324, versus the early rounders Nick Castellanos and David Dahl.

In the (PW,a) group, BABS says Michael Conforto (pictured) is basically the same player as the annually over-drafted Bryce Harper and can be taken in the 7-8 round. And don’t overlook peer Joc Pederson after round 20, who may see more PT this year in a less crowded Dodger outfield. BABS points to identical skill sets (s,AV) for Ender Inciarte and Adam Eaton, both available more than 100 picks later than Andrew Benintendi.

BABS provides some intriguing two-player asset groups as potential profit plays. Tommy Pham brings across-the-board skills in the (p,s,a) asset group, but BABS thinks Chris Owings is a similar player, albeit in less playing time. Owings moves to KC, where the incumbent outfielders are mostly devoid of skills. In the (SB,AV) group, Lorenzo Cain, fresh off a 30 SB, .308 season can be acquired 30 picks after Starling Marte. Further down the list, Victor Robles (SB,a) carries a 10 round premium to Manny Margot, yet another example of market place love for the new shiny toy versus the post-hype used model.

There are several tiers within the well-stocked (p,AV) asset group. Undrafted a year ago, the market now covets teenage phenom Juan Soto in the early 3rd round. But BABS says that you can wait five more rounds for similar players such as A.J. Pollock or David Peralta. Even larger discounts are available near rounds 14-15 in the likes of Corey Dickerson, Ryan Braun and Jesse Winker. In the (p,a) class, you will pay a five round premium for George Springer over classmates Aaron Hicks and Stephen Piscotty, both of whom delivered $20+ seasons in 2018.

Last year BABS identified Mallex Smith as a late round S+ player. Smith more than delivered with 40 SBs while also hitting .296 in 480 ABs. The result was a $27 season, providing tremendous returns for Smith owners who capitalized on BABS’ advice. This year, Smith is rated higher at (S+,a), but the market remains somewhat skeptical with a current ADP of 100/$13. BABS says draft with confidence.

A familiar name in the S+ group is Royals newcomer Billy Hamilton. End-gamers Roman Quinn and Travis Jankowski bring similar elite skills. Byron Buxton offers extreme speed as well but carries a large bag packed with risks, not to mention the memories still haunting his 2018 owners. But BABS says his Speed still looks attractive to her.

On the extreme power side (P+), Randall Grichuk makes for an enticing selection at ADP 250.

In the part-timer groups, several players possess interesting skills profiles, the question of course is whether any will get the necessary at bats. The market is already betting as such on Eloy Jimenez (p,AV), who is being drafted in the 8th round as if he will be given a full-time role in Chicago. Triple-asset player Austin Meadows (p,s,a) is also moving up the draft boards.

BABS provides other intriguing part time options who aren’t currently being selected on most 30-player rosters, players such as Garrett Cooper (PW,a) and Raimel Tapia (SB,AV).

A year ago, few owners expected skilled outfielders like Greg Allen and Teoscar Hernandez to provide 2018 fantasy value, or better yet…how many called the season that Juan Soto delivered? Chances are, when playing time opportunities open during 2019, BABS will have identified those skilled outfielders most likely to take the job and run, and hit.