An early view of 2019 BABS ratings

by Patrick Cloghessy

Let’s cut to the chase. We are here for a reckoning. Will BABS confirm our love for Ronald Acuna? Will she throw cold water on Walker Buehler (pictured)?

We know it’s instructive to overlay BABS’ rankings with ADP. As of this writing, there have been 76 completed NFBC drafts. BABS appears to be mostly satisfied with the early draft market. Mostly is the operative term.

There are exceptions. Francisco Lindor (p,AV), Alex Bregman (p,AV) and Manny Machado (p,AV) all appear in the top 15 ADP, but BABS has questions. They are all tremendous players and all returned first round value in 2018. They were all helped into the top tier with their legs. But BABS does not buy the speed.

Machado’s SB totals in the last five years: 2 (in 327 AB),20,0,9,14. Hardly a model of consistency. Lindor ran more with less success to a career high 25 bags in 2018. He was caught 10 times in 35 attempts. Could that lead to fewer tries in 2019? Bregman swiped 17 in 2017 and 10 in 2018. He has league average speed. BABS looks for above average skill; anything less is risky to project.

One final note: Lindor, Bregman and Machado all logged over 600 plate appearances in 2018. This is obviously a plus. Their ability to stay on the field allowed for the maximization of their skills (into prodigious counting stat totals). Is the health skill enough to justify a first round choice?

While BABS has questions about some top bats, she seems to be in harmony with the starting pitching market. Chris Sale (E+,K+) holds the top skills, but owns an (inj-) liability. Max Scherzer (ER,K+), Jacob deGrom (E+,KK) are justified in BABS’ eyes as the top two pitchers off the board. Clayton Kershaw (E+,KK) owns the same elite assets as deGrom, along with INJ risk.

The quest to find a fantasy ace could lead to BABS’ group of (ER,KK) starting pitchers. The Klubers, Verlanders, Coles and Carrascos are all this asset group. Also represented are Blake Snell, Trevor Bauer, Luis Severino and Patrick Corbin. The old guard and the new wave. These staff anchors are free of injury liability save for Bauer (-inj). Some have regression risk, some are getting older.

The (ER,KK) group also contains some uber-talented yet injury-prone arms. Walker Buehler, Noah Syndergaard, James Paxton and Stephen Strasburg are tabbed by BABS as mid-timers (M).  

The  ADP range of the entire (ER,KK) set is tight: 24 (Kluber) on the low end and 58 (Strasburg) on the high end. No outliers here. Be prepared to pay up.

What about the players we came here to see? How has BABS judged last season’s studs and breakouts?

J.D. Martinez (P+,AV) owns the skills to return as a big contributor in several categories, but BABS does warn of regression (Rg).

Trevor Story stands alone with the unique skills (P+,s,a). If BABS is correct, Story could even turn a slight profit at ADP 19.

A similarly well-rounded list of assets belongs to Javier Baez (p,SB,a). BABS has questions about Javy’s power. Can he produce 30+ HR again with a 32% fly ball rate? Can he knock it out of the park at over 20% per fly ball for a third straight season? Baez is being drafted 6 picks ahead of Story at ADP 13.

Ronald Acuna (PW,s,a) seems to have it all. Is that enough to warrant a first round pick (ADP 8)? Recency bias and FOMO are likely the biggest drivers of Acuna’s ADP.

Speed is a common trait among the top 15 picks in 2019 (so far). BABS sees Trea Turner (S+,a) as a source of plentiful SB and decent BA. There are two others BABS identifies with the same assets (S+,a): Mallex Smith (ADP 98) and Amed Rosario (ADP 139). Turner’s ADP is 10. Might the market be undervaluing Smith and Rosario? Overvaluing Turner? The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

There’s more…

Has the recent decline in league-wide stolen base totals led to a market shift? Speed, and specifically elite speed that can garner 30+ SB is a valuable commodity. Only 11 players accomplished this feat in 2018. That is less than one elite speedster per team in any league that has 12 teams or more. If we go back to 2017, only 6 players stole 30+.

If rostering an elite bag-swiper can make a remarkable impact on league standings, then why is Dee Gordon (S+,AV) sitting at ADP 114? Has he not averaged 53 SB per season in his last four healthy campaigns? According to BABS, Dee Gordon is the only player in baseball with (S+,AV).

BABS is revving her engines for 2019. Stay tuned.