BABS: Meet Statcast
by Patrick Cloghessy
By the time you read this, it will have been days since David Bote (pictured) slammed the Cubs to a walk-off win last Sunday night. You will have seen it, read stories about it, bought the tee shirt. Inevitably, these stories will reference Bote’s newfound swing. His swing is (of course) tailored to launch the ball at an advantageous angle.
“Wonderful” you’re thinking, “I’ve been tricked into reading another story about the air-ball revolution.” Not exactly. There are plenty of places to find a think piece on the subject. Only here will you encounter the crossover between Statcast and BABS.
David Bote (p,AV) is the latest poster boy for what technology has allowed us to swiftly quantify — baseballs that are hit really hard. We have metrics dating back to 2002 that measure quality of contact, but Statcast has forced into baseball an immediate measurability, and even brand new ideas.
Do any of these new stats, such as Barrels, relate at all to fantasy baseball? To BABS? Put simply, a Barrel is a batted ball event within an optimum range:
“…the Barrel classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015.”
It would appear that players most adept at this skill would produce the most power. How does the BABS power asset measure up?
Seen here, Statcast can measure league leaders in terms of Barrels as a percentage of overall plate appearances. Here are the top 10 (min 150 AB):
Player Barrels/PA % BABS (In-season) ================ ============ ================ J.D. Martinez 12.4 P+ Khris Davis 11.5 P+ Mookie Betts 11.3 PW Joey Gallo 11.3 P+ Teoscar Hernandez 10.8 PW Daniel Palka 9.9 P+ Randal Grichuk 9.8 P+ Gary Sanchez 9.7 PW Max Muncy 9.4 PW Nelson Cruz 9.4 P+
Seems BABS and new tech are getting on swimmingly. Next on the list are guys like Mike Trout (P+), Aaron Judge (P+), Matt Carpenter (P+), Javier Baez (PW) and even Ronald Acuna (p). Young Ronald’s recent power surge is included in the Statcast rankings. Will BABS line up in the next update? Her compatibility so far would say yes.
BABS’ assets have mass appeal, which is what makes her such a tempting mistress. New fangled stats driven by incredibly innovative technology? BABS reflects that too? It appears so.
How can we talk about Statcast without mentioning exit velocity? MLB holds the technology to measure it, and would like you to know about it. It is an intuitive stat. Balls hit hardest at the highest rate tend to lead to positive results. The leaders in average exit velo (min. 150 batted ball events):
Player Avg Exit Velo (MPH) BABS (In-Season) ================== =================== ================ Aaron Judge 95.8 P+,a Nelson Cruz 94.5 P+,a Giancarlo Stanton 94.4 P+,s,a Miguel Cabrera 94.2 p,AV Robinson Cano 93.9 AV Ryan Zimmerman 93.9 p Joey Gallo 93.8 P+ Matt Olson 93.6 P+ J.D. Martinez 93.3 P+,A+ Khris Davis 93.1 P+
A lot of the same names as the list above. At first glance, it may be perplexing that many of these bats are bereft of BA talent. Statcast only measures batted ball events, and many on this list suffer from below average contact rates, limiting their BA upside. Regarding the trio of Cabrera, Cano and Zimmerman, we can surmise that extenuating circumstances sapped their power. It could be injuries, a high ground ball rate or (possibly) lack of PEDs. Zimmerman appears to have come back to health and power. He was also unlucky with a BABIP 40 points below his career average.
We have long been enamored by power. It’s understandable that Major League Baseball is using Statcast technology to highlight this fact. As BABS disciples, we are wise to appreciate the prowess of these home run kings, while soberly judging their overall profile on its merits. BABS provides a cold referendum in the simplest of terms.
David Bote is a great example. He was the talk of the league. Should the collective fascination continue? Will it continue? The sample size is small, but let’s check his Statcast numbers. Avg Exit Velo: 96.1 MPH (would place him 1st ahead of Aaron Judge). Barrels/PA %: 8.8 (24th). Finally, Hard Hit % (number of batted balls at 95 MPH+) 62.1% (1st). BABS already likes Bote’s talent, showing assets of (p,AV). What will the September update bring?