A BABS trade analysis

by Chris Dowd

With most fantasy trade deadlines approaching this month, we thought it was a good time to tackle a very real trade offer sent in by a reader and break down how BABS can be used to evaluate a deal.

We tend to lean on BABS most heavily at draft time when all slates are blank, as it’s easier to craft a balanced roster without any constraints in place. It becomes more difficult when multiple pieces are involved.

Here’s the trade offer:

Max Muncy and A.J. Pollock
for
Eddie Rosario and Matt Olson

Let’s break this down.

First, a BABS rating comparison:

Max Muncy (M, P+, a | EX)
A.J. Pollock (M, P+, SB, AV | INJ)

Eddie Rosario (F, PW, AV)
Matt Olson (F, P+ | EX)

Holistically, the most noticeable thing about this potential trade is the amount of risk on both sides.

Muncy has come out of nowhere and is a huge reason the Dodgers are still in the playoff hunt. He has already surpassed his career high for plate appearances with 331 and he’s made the most of them with 24 homers. BABS’ July 1 update still shows an M for playing time but that’s simply because he wasn’t a lineup mainstay until mid-May. Based on performance there’s no way he comes out of the lineup even after the acquisitions of Manny Machado and Brian Dozier make for a crowded infield.

Muncy has been selective at the plate, chasing pitches at a 22% clip, which places him 13th in all of baseball among players with at least 300 plate appearances. That’s better than MVP candidate Jose Ramirez, who is known for his command of the strike zone. He’s also pounding the baseball with a 45% hard hit rate and just a 11% soft contact rate while hitting plenty of fly balls (45%), a recipe that’s concocted a .315 ISO.

What holds Muncy back is his sketchy track record. Look back at his historical BABS ratings and you’ll see almost nothing but batting average liabilities. His lack of major league at-bats results in a -EX liability despite the fact he turns 28 this month. The peripherals look solid, but true breakouts at this age are uncommon, despite the recent performances of players like Tommy Pham and Jesus Aguilar clouding our judgement.

The other part of this deal is Pollock (pictured), one of the unluckiest players over the last few seasons. Pollock has dealt with a litany of different injuries that have derailed his ascent to fantasy stardom, but the skills remain. As of the July update, Pollock had managed just 150 ABs after suffering a fractured thumb in May, but he put up 11 HR and 9 SB while hitting .293 in that span. Since returning on July 2, Pollock has cooled from his hot start but any concerns about his thumb affecting his bat can be put to rest. He’s knocked four homers and posted a .286 average, and while he’s stolen just one bag, the opportunities have still been there. Steals can come in bunches so there could be a pile coming any time.

On the other side of the deal, the main piece here is Rosario, who has sustained his mini-breakout from 2017. His strikeout and walk rates are relatively unchanged from last season, he’s traded some ground balls for fly balls while maintaining his line drive rate, and he’s hitting the ball harder. We’re likely seeing his peak, but a .290 hitter with 25-30 homer potential and anywhere from a half dozen to dozen steals is a valuable contributor. There’s not much else to be said here.

That brings us to Olson, who could be the biggest wildcard of the four. A .772 OPS is far from impressive, but one glance at his Statcast data shows there could be a major correction coming. Take a look at his actual versus expected BA and SLG:

Actual: .238 BA, .445 SLG
Expected: .263 BA, .539 SLG

That’s nearly a 100 point difference in slugging percentage. The underlying metrics support a refined approach: fewer chases, more contact inside the strike zone, more liners and fewer grounders, and a hard-hit percentage that ranks fourth in baseball, right up there with Aaron Judge and J.D. Martinez. It just hasn’t fully translated to big-time numbers yet.

The downside for Olson, like Muncy, is experience. He’s only in his first full season, but at age 24 and with a prospect pedigree, he’s still got plenty of room left for growth. Playing half his games in Oakland doesn’t help, but he’s managed 10 of his 21 homers at home in fewer at-bats than on the road. With an average HR distance of 415 feet (10th in the majors), not even Oakland Coliseum can suppress the power.

The Verdict

This trade boils down to risk tolerance, because all four players have plenty to offer. The top performer in the group has been Rosario, while Olson is holding up the rear. Pollock has the more well-rounded skillset, but he’s a significant injury risk. Muncy has defied expectations (well, there were none in the first place). But is it reasonable to expect more of the same from someone who has stepped to the plate less than 300 times prior to this season, and is closer to 30 than 25?

Pollock’s upside is unmatched by anyone else in this deal, but at this point in the season I’m taking Rosario’s high floor and Olson’s tremendous power potential over an injury risk and a regression candidate. Remember, BABS is not only about maximizing assets, it’s also about minimizing liabilities, and the Rosario/Olsen side of the deal is less likely to result in disappointment but provides some significant upside as well.

What side would you take?