The BABS Forgotten

by Mark Simmons

Below are profiles of several players who BABS has been virtually ignoring but whose ratings may be on the rise when the next update is posted. Ownership % are based upon ESPN leagues at the time of writing.

Considering the vitriol posted on several message boards regarding Tommy Pham (F, no assets), it’s surprising to see he’s still owned in 92 percent of ESPN leagues. If you consult the BABS July database, you aren’t champing at the bit to add Pham. He’s listed alongside such prodigious full-time hitters as Jordy Mercer and Marcus Semien.

However, Pham could be the poster child for Patrick Cloghessy’s Friday article about patience. His pre-season BABS rating was (F, p,s,a,*).  He has a 48 percent hard hit rate, easily the highest of his career. His xBA and xSLG are .282 and .499 respectively, much more in line with the expectations of his draft position. You aren’t likely to see Pham on your waiver wire, but it’s very possible you could trade for him at a discount and reap the benefits.

Both Nick Williams (M, no assets) and Brian Anderson (F, a) are practically invisible to BABS. Before this season, neither had played more than half a season in the majors. Both Williams (.283) and Anderson (.285) have xBAs on par with AV asset hitters like Buster Posey, Mitch Moreland, and Xander Bogaerts. Furthermore, Statcast suggests both players could see a spike in power to complement their solid hitting asset. The difference between current SLG% and xSLG% for both players is significant. Williams (.435/.490) and Anderson (.419/.488) both project as players who can contribute some power in addition to their average. Both have higher xSLG than Kris Bryant and Travis Shaw, who each get a PW asset. 

If you look beyond the flaws, there might just be some value in Nick Pivetta and German Marquez. Both are projected by BABS as part-time contributors, and are young, so innings limits may play a role in the last few months of their season. They are however, also on contending teams and could play key roles down the stretch. Pivetta (k) has an xBAA of .233 (better than Corey Kluber, Luis Severino and Noah Syndergaard) and his SIERA is 3.37. That’s in the top 15 among all starting pitchers.

BABS is less kind to Marquez. His BABS rating is (k | -ER) and is only owned in 12 percent of leagues. But look closer; there are skills to like. The difference between his realized and expected opposition batting average is the largest in baseball. Based upon batted ball data, Statcast predicts a .230 BAA. His xFIP of 3.78 is in the same range as guys like Jose Berrios, Mike Clevinger, and Miles Mikolas, who are owned in almost all leagues. Coors Field certainly affects Marquez’s value, but managed carefully (i.e. started when he pitches on the road), there’s very good value here. 

Finally, there is Jon Gray. His ownership is only 51%, but there is enough skill to sing his praises and encourage you to buy. He has now made two starts since his brief demotion, and it appears the trip to the farm helped him figure something out.

Even before being sent down, Gray’s peripherals were elite. Despite a bloated (5.14) ERA, only Chris Sale, Patrick Corbin, and Jacob deGrom are better than his full-season 2.86 xFIP.  BABS rates Gray as (KK | -ER). Owning a pitcher who throws half his games in Coors is a scary proposition, but Gray’s two most recent starts were in Denver, against very good lineups (Seattle and Houston), and he posted a 1.26 ERA and 0.63 WHIP. If Gray’s owner has held on this long, the chances of trading for him now that he’s showing signs of realizing these expected stats is slim, but nothing ventured, nothing gained.