BABS help on the farm
by Chris Doyle
We’re at the point in the season where many heralded prospects have already made the leap, while others are waiting in the wings for their chance. But what about some other minor leaguers knocking on the door? There are plenty of players who could help you out down the stretch with widespread availability, and now is the time to begin taking note of who they are and when they are expected to arrive.
(BABS ratings in parentheses are from the preseason Minor League BABS report.)
Adalberto Mondesi (p, S+, AV) has great tools but was inexplicably banished to Triple-A before the start of the season despite having nothing left to prove in a Royals organization starved for big league talent. The 22-year-old was recently summoned to Kansas City despite a ho-hum 133 plate appearances in the minors, where he batted .250. He did manage a .492 SLG though, knocking 5 HR while also stealing 10 bags without being caught. Mondesi (pictured) has shown he can hit for a bit of power and be an asset on the basepaths, but his penchant for striking out (33.3% for his MLB career in 234 PA) depresses his value. That being said, he figures to regain shortstop eligibility soon, and with the lack of depth at the position, Mondesi could be a factor in the counting stats going forward.
Edwin Rios (p, AV) is a solid hitter with great raw power and an improving approach at the plate. Rios returned from injury in late May and has been raking ever since, posting a .330 BA and a .536 SLG. He hit .317 in 77 games at Double-A and .296 in 51 games at Triple-A in 2017 while combining for 26 HR across both levels. So far in 2018 the numbers look good on the surface, but he’s got a few things working against him: 1) his BABIP is an astronomical .459, 2) he’s struck out 32% of the time and 3) his defense leaves a lot to be desired. The third point is especially noteworthy as there’s nowhere for the Dodgers to hide him in the field. Like Willie Calhoun before him though, there’s always a chance he gets traded to an American League team before the deadline.
Speaking of Willie Calhoun (p, a), he’s started to heat up at Triple-A and could soon be in line for a promotion. Not breaking camp with the Rangers really put Calhoun into a tailspin and it showed in his performance as he struggled to a .229/.308/.365 April. Since then, his OPS has gone from .673 to .740 in May to .784 in June. He doesn’t walk a ton but he also doesn’t strike out very often at just 11%. The Rangers have nothing left to play for already so it shouldn’t be long before he’s in Texas.
The first base situation in Queens is far from settled and Peter Alonso could wind up being “the guy.” Alonso was not on BABS’ radar before the season but he’s trending in the right direction. He hasn’t posted a K rate higher than 18.5% in three seasons (he’s currently at 31.8% at Triple-A but in just 44 PA) and he’s upped his walk rate well into the double digits at the same time. After smashing Double-A with a 1.012 OPS in 65 games to start the year, Alonso has posted a .927 OPS in his brief stint at Triple-A and it won’t be long before the Mets’ patience with Dom Smith runs out. Adrian Gonzalez is gone and Wilmer Flores doesn’t appear to be the answer everyday, so Alonso has a favorable path.
Where does Oscar Mercado (SB, a) fit in St. Louis? The Cardinals still have a glut of outfielders but it’s hard to ignore what Mercado has been doing in the minors, especially the last two seasons. The 23-year-old has always possessed excellent speed but he’s recently added a little bit of pop while also improving his contact. His .432 SLG and .136 ISO marks are virtually identical to the career-bests he put up in 2017 and he’s seen his walk rate jump from 6% to 9.5% and his strikeout rate fall from 21% to 14%. To top it all off, his stolen base success rate has climbed up as well (72% from 66%). This is a guy who has stolen at least 33 bases in three straight years, including 50 back in 2015 and 38 last season. Injuries or a trade are the only ways he can make an impact at the major league level right now, but ‘tis the season.
On the pitching side, we’ve already seen debuts for guys like Shane Bieber (ER), Freddy Peralta (ER, K+) and Michael Soroka (e) so it’s a bit tougher to find an under-the-radar but highly rated starter who looks like he could make an immediate impact. Kolby Allard has had a solid season at Triple-A Gwinnett (2.60 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) but his strikeout potential has taken a huge hit over the past few years and sits at just 7.0 per nine innings. Jalen Beeks has dominated Triple-A with a 2.40 ERA (2.44 xFIP) and 12.1 K/9 but faltered in his major league debut a few weeks ago. He’s likely to get another shot, however, and he’s worth stashing based on his recent minor league track record. And on the off chance Michael Kopech (e, KK) is unowned, you may want to make room on your roster. The walks are troubling but the strikeout potential (97 in 73.1 IP at Triple-A) is monstrous. If the raw talent happens to come together for an extended stretch, he’s fantasy gold.