Teoscar, Nimmo and the BABS narrative

by Patrick Cloghessy

Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, Jose Altuve. The headliners. The crossover superstars. These men attract the casual fan.  Long form personal profiles and ad campaigns mythologize and deify them in the public consciousness.  These things help define the narrative. Fantasy owners are human too. We love these guys.

Enter BABS. She does not care about popular opinion. She doesn’t read the blogs or the newspapers. She does not overreact to a good week. BABS cuts through the noise and analyzes the marketplace.

Can she spot the next titans of baseball? Maybe, maybe not. She does not control the media (yet).  She can see who is performing like a star, and compare players in simple terms, without preconceived notions. Let’s explore…

At the draft table, Charlie Blackmon (PW,s,A+) was a consensus first round pick, and for good reason. At the same time, a player with the same attributes (PW) as Shohei Ohtani (batter) and Matt Adams, was lurking in a crowded Toronto outfield. He was projected for a $0 season, driven largely by his non-existent playing time projection.

Cut to the June 2 update and BABS has identified a (slightly) underperforming Charlie Blackmon (F,PW,s,a) as essentially equivalent to Teoscar Hernandez (F,PW,s,a).

Imagine telling your friends that these two were the same player? Ha! Right? We get ushered out of polite society for that one.  But wait! One of BABS’ strongest attributes is her ability to identify market inefficiency. Players within the same asset group are not exactly the same — they are expected to perform within a normal range of variability for their respective skills profiles.

BABS liked Teoscar’s power at the draft (PW), and the rest he has exhibited over the first 2+ months of the season, with a projection for (F) playing time.  This sharp analysis gives us the ability to identify a cheaper version of Charlie Blackmon.

Brandon Nimmo (pictured) began the season as an afterthought (NFBC ADP 463).  He bided his time in the minors, waiting for his chance. When the opportunity arose, Brandon Nimmo did not waste it.  The kid from Wyoming, with a reworked swing, took the NL by storm.  

Narrative alert! Nimmo is getting ink in major sports periodicals.  Should we resist?

The only part of his game BABS commented on pre-season was an *, denoting his value-add potential in OBP/OPS leagues.  She now sees his skills as (M,PW,SB, AV). How skeptical should we be?

The truth is, confirming breakout players at this juncture if an iffy proposition.

We cannot be certain trends will continue. For batters, past research tells us that a strong April correlates with a strong season only 39% of the time.  (A strong April meaning a player earns $10+ more than projected [h/t Baseball Forecaster])

The upshot: BABS is already running on 2+ months of available data.  Even with a sample of that size, some conclusions can be drawn.  

Certain stats become reliable validators of skill at low levels of PA.

Skill               PA
================   ===
Contact rate        60
Walk rate          120
Isolated power     160
HR rate            170

Contact rate is a leading indicator of expected batting average (xBA). BABS likes that.

ISO and HR rate feed nicely into BABS’ power assessment.  

Through the end of May, Hernandez tallied 178 plate appearances, Nimmo 165. It will be interesting to see the July BABS update.  

Are there any other players who were ignored on draft day,  now performing impressions of fantasy stalwarts?

Well, yes. There are many!

Dee Gordon and Starling Marte.  Great players. Purveyors of speed.  BABS (June 2) agrees. Both sit in the upper echelon of BABS’ overall rankings, with skills of (S+, AV).  

Previously discussed doppelgangers who present the same skills: Travis Jankowski (S+, AV) and Harrison Bader (S+, AV). These players face the same PT obstacle Teoscar Hernandez overcame.  Buy skills, not roles. Especially in this day and age.  

Jesus Aguilar is displaying the same (P+, AV) as Aaron Judge.  

Andrelton Simmons on the same level (s, A+) as Jose Altuve and Jean Segura? Check.

Would you believe, Mitch Haniger and Travis Shaw (PW, a)  are the same as Bryce Harper? Sacrilege! BABS the blasphemer! But remember that all statistical performances are within a normal error bar. All three are within that expected range.

BABS’ intuitive assessments can challenge even the most open-minded fantasy player.  This is a good thing. Being complacent by resting on “common knowledge” in a dynamic environment can lead to hasty, regrettable decisions. Even worse, FoMO.

The players chronicled here will not have their stories fully told until season’s end.  Along the way, we can write our own stories, in the standings, propped up by the knowledge that we were able to leverage market analysis into counting stats (we really just want the stats).