BABS June 2018 Update – Pitchers

See the latest BABS update here.

by Chris Doyle

Strikeouts continue to rise in baseball, which means you’ve got more options when it comes to building your balance sheet. Averaging a strikeout per inning is no longer special and is almost a requisite for being considered a fantasy starter.

With that said, here are some noteworthy ratings on the pitching side of last week’s database update:

Mike Foltynewicz (F | E+, KK)

A glance at the top two asset groups and you’ll notice the usual suspects, but one name sticks out like a sore thumb. Mike Foltynewicz has quietly been ace-like over the season’s first two months with a 2.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 80 strikeouts in his first 69 innings prior to the update. That he’s managed to do this despite an increase in walks is either impressive or alarming, depending on how you look at it. Folty’s walk rate has now increased each season since 2016 with his current 4.0 BB/9 mark representing the highest of his career. If the free passes continue to pile up, his 3.49 xFIP looks more fitting than his current low 2’s ERA. But, if he can harness his control and regress towards his 3.2 BB/9 career average, watch out.

Ross Stripling/Walker Buehler (M | E+, KK)

The best pitcher in Los Angeles has not been who many would have expected. Instead, it’s been a pair of inexperienced right-handers who have carried the rotation. We knew about Buehler’s (pictured) potential coming into the season but he’s been even more impressive than anyone could have expected with a 2.74 ERA and 50 strikeouts in his first 46 innings. The bigger revelation has been Stripling. The 28-year-old is sporting a K/9 of 11.1 which would put him ninth overall if he had enough innings to qualify. So long as Stripling can continue to limit hard contact and induce nearly 50% ground balls, he should be able to outperform his xFIP and SIERA marks, which both check in at more than a run higher than his 1.52 ERA.

Trevor Cahill/Seth Lugo/Carlos Martinez (M | E+, k)

These three pitchers couldn’t be more different at first glance yet here we are with an intriguing grouping. Cahill has enjoyed a renaissance in his second go around with Oakland, but if you paid attention to his first half last season with the Padres you could have seen this coming. Lugo has been used mainly as a multi-inning reliever but with 37 IP and a K/9 right around 9.0 as of early June he’s been a valuable contributor. Martinez missed almost all of May due to injury and was rusty in his return this past week but he entered June with a tiny 1.62 ERA and is sporting his usual 50% + ground ball rate. Of note is his velocity, which is down about 2.0 mph on his all his pitches and could be a contributing factor to a strikeout rate that has dipped from 9.5 in 2017 to 8.7 this season.

Blake Snell (F | ER, KK)

Snell has been one of the true breakout pitchers of 2018. He’s always had strikeout stuff (career 9.3 K/9 plus a minor league average well above that mark over five full seasons) but it’s been his control that’s held him back. He seems to have figured something out this year, as his 2.7 BB/9 is the best of his young career by a long shot. His first pitch strike percentage is up a couple of percentage points but still sits at just 56%, so there’s room for even more improvement there. What’s helping the most is a jump in swinging strike rate; he’s now at 13% which is 12th among qualified pitchers and ahead of names like Verlander and Severino. Acquire if you can.

Josh Hader (E+, K+, sv-)

No relief pitcher has been as dominant as Hader, who could very well set the single-season record for most strikeouts by a reliever if he continues this pace. Hader is providing as much value in the K department as many starters, but with elite ratios. While his 1.05 ERA is obviously impressive, his 1.04 SIERA proves this is no fluke.

Wade Davis/Kenley Jansen (ER, KK, SV)

You know it’s a good year for closers when two of the game’s elite are buried just ahead of Kenyon Middleton and Arodys Vizcaino in BABS’ rankings. Both Davis and Jansen have put up solid numbers, but they simply haven’t been otherworldly like they have shown they can be in the past. Instead, we’re seeing names like Brad Boxberger, Edwin Diaz, Sean Doolittle and Brad Hand (along with regulars Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel) in the first tier of stoppers.

Clayton Kershaw (M | ER, KK)

It’s only June and Kershaw is already on his second DL stint. Exactly how much of his performance can be attributed to his health is uncertain, but the numbers certainly show that something’s not right. His swinging strike rate is the lowest it’s been since 2013, hitters aren’t chasing pitches nearly as often (31%, down from the mid-30s each of the last five seasons) and his average fastball velocity is at an all-time low of 91.8 mph. His first few starts once he returns will be key. Both Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez experienced velocity dips around age 30, and one of the two has since rebounded. It’s obvious which path Kershaw owners hope he takes.