BABS June 2018 Update – Batters
Access the second BABS update of the season here.
by Chris Doyle
We’re two months into the season and things are finally starting to crystalize. Have we learned anything after the first third of the schedule? Let’s see if we can draw any conclusions.
Cream of the crop
Mookie Betts (PW, SB, A+)
Mike Trout (PW, s, A+)
It’s certainly not abnormal to see these two at the top, and when it comes to choosing fantasy baseball’s best player you can make an argument for both. However, Trout’s worst BABS assessment since 2014 is (P+, AV) while Betts is only now showing true signs of a power breakout. If I’m forced to choose one it’s still Trout due to the longer track record, but the gap isn’t nearly as big anymore. Consider them a class of their own.
Next up?
Nick Castellanos (PW, SB, A+)
The Castellanos breakout has been on the radar for years, but is it finally here? Some might consider last year his coming out party but based on early returns in 2018 this could be the year he takes a true step forward. The home run totals don’t leap off the page (6 HR in his first 218 AB) but his expected slugging percentage (.557) is 36 points higher than his actual slugging. Despite a sky high .411 BABIP contributing to his .336 average, his xAVG is still an excellent .310. He makes a ton of hard contact and hits a boatload of line drives and fly balls, and with a HR/FB rate of just 9%, the homers are due to come. If a leaguemate is looking to sell due to his perceived lack of power, now’s the time to pounce.
A diverse group
Manny Machado/Jose Ramirez/Freddie Freeman/Matt Kemp (PW, A+)
This might be my favorite asset group. It would be difficult to see these four players in the same light by only watching them on the field, but in terms of their offensive profiles they’re quite alike. Machado is just now entering his prime years and looks poised to earn one of the most lucrative free agent deals in history this off-season. Jose Ramirez has earned a PW tag for the first time in his career and can now be seen as one of the game’s elite hitters with his combination of power (38 extra base hits, first in baseball), contact skills (87% 11th overall) and plate discipline (1.25 BB/K, second in the majors). Freddie Freeman (pictured) was basically elite already, but he’s putting up even better numbers this season in a potent Braves lineup – his .988 OPS is seventh in the bigs. And then there’s Matt Kemp. The old adage of “once you display a skill, you own it” certainly rings true here; from 2014 to 2016 BABS viewed Kemp as a legit power threat (minimum PW rating). The bad news: he’s hitting an unsustainable .341 through 173 AB with a BABIP hovering around .400 that’s due to regress, and health is still a concern. Regardless, for what you likely invested in him at the draft table, he’s proving to be quite the profit center.
What’s old is new again
Mitch Moreland (P+, A+)
Brandon Belt (P+, s, AV)
Matt Adams/Jesus Aguilar (P+, AV)
We’ve seen quite a rankings turnover at first base. Sitting at the top is veteran Mitch Moreland, who’s been crushing the ball for the Red Sox. Now that Hanley Ramirez is out of the picture Moreland has transitioned to everyday duties, which will be interesting to watch. He’s managed just a .680 OPS for his career against lefties, so while the increase in playing time means good things for his counting stats, his BA and OBP could suffer with more exposure to same-handed pitching. Brandon Belt finally looks like he’s about to bust out but a recent bout of appendicitis has put that on hold temporarily. Belt owners are hoping he doesn’t miss a beat once he returns, as BABS has presaged this type of power breakout (.240 ISO) for years. Matt Adams and Jesus Aguilar started the season as reserves but they’ve forced themselves into the conversation for starting roles even when the injured bodies return. I’m putting a bit more faith in Aguilar, as Adams is likely to cede at-bats to Mark Reynolds against left-handers. Adams was also getting some reps in the outfield but with Adam Eaton set to return soon, that may no longer be the case.
Not that different
George Springer/Eddie Rosario (p, AV)
We all know George Springer is a fine player. Coming into 2018 Springer sported a (p, a) rating and a hefty price tag; at $24 and an ADP in the mid-third round, he didn’t come cheap. Despite a slightly better (p, AV) tag, Eddie Rosario’s ADP was 123 with a dollar value of just $11. If these two are basically the same player, why does the valuation differ so much? Perhaps some still see Springer as the player who stole 16 bases in 2015, but Rosario wasn’t far off that mark the same year when he swiped 11. Neither can be counted on for speed but both are in the same boat when it comes to average and power, and one could have been rostered for much less on draft day.
New-age speedsters
Harrison Bader/Travis Jankowski (M | S+, AV)
Bader and Jankowski are exactly what fantasy leaguers were hoping Billy Hamilton would turn into: a high average, high on-base base-stealing wizard. Though both have been part-time players in 2018, the opportunity for full-time work should present itself if they continue to get on base. Jankowski in particular has been a revelation in San Diego after it appeared he was the odd man out in the Padres crowded outfield. Since being recalled from Triple-A near the end of April, he has been featured regularly atop the lineup and has managed to go 10-for-12 on stolen base attempts while posting a .381 OBP. He’s turning into the ideal leadoff hitter, a rare sight in today’s game.