How to avoid the complacency of success
by Chris Doyle
When we think of fantasy baseball advice, it’s typically the tough times that call for assistance. What’s often overlooked is the success scenario. It usually goes something like this:
“I have no holes to fill right now, this is awesome.”
“Look how great my team is doing! I knew I nailed the draft!”
While you certainly may have “nailed the draft,” assuming the remaining two-thirds of the season will go down exactly like the first is risky business. How, then, do you give yourself the best chance of sustaining early success and staying ahead of the competition?
Here are some thoughts on the proper approach:
Re-evaluate your team
Success can breed complacency, especially early on when your brain is operating in confirmation bias mode. Sure, pat yourself on the back for trusting your gut on Aaron Judge carrying over his skills from 2017 (P+, AV), but is Kevin Pillar truly the player BABS says he is (p, S+, A+)? Since the May update, Pillar’s average has fallen from .324 to .271 despite a still-high .317 BABIP. He’s also gone a full month without a home run. The speed looks to be intact (he’s 9 of 9 on the base paths) but with fewer times on base come fewer opportunities to run. Not to mention, a third of Pillar’s thefts came in one single March inning. Someone like Pillar is still a useful piece for now, but he’s a prime example of a player who may need replacing in the near future.
It’s all about balance. You want to pencil in the guys who are hot right now while at the same time trying to identify and acquire players who have proven skills but may not be at the top of their games. These types of players generally come cheap, or at least cheaper than they normally cost. If you had been following Matt Carpenter (PW | -AV) as of the May update he would have been a prime buy low candidate when he was hitting below the Mendoza Line. The underlying metrics were still strong though, and over the last 14 days he’s reached base at a .448 clip with 4 HR, 7 RBI and 9 R. His preseason projection {P+, a} is still possible, and with more at-bats comes further regression to the norm. That buy low window has now slammed shut, but there are always other similar cases out there.
Never stop looking for players who could improve your roster
It can be easy to rest on one’s laurels. The worst thing you can do is make the assumption that all your players will finish the season with prorated statistics from the first 50-60 games.
The easiest avenue to mine for talent is the waiver wire, and depending on the size of your league, there may be some significant fruit to bear. One example is Tyson Ross who, coming into the season, was not awarded any assets by BABS after missing nearly all of 2016 and 2017 due to injury. With an ADP of 550, Ross was an afterthought.
Now? Not so much. Through his first 35.2 innings, Ross pitched to a 3.28 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and 40 K to reclaim the exact same skills he earned after his stellar 2014 and 2015 campaigns (F | ER, KK). And, as of this writing, Ross is still available in nearly 50% of ESPN leagues. Even a highly successful fantasy pitching staff can use numbers like these, and his 3.46 xFIP gives hope for continued success.
The minor league ranks also provide opportunities. Though it’s important not to discard any proven or valuable assets to stash just any prospect, it would be unwise to completely ignore the minor league database altogether. Based on minor league equivalent BABS ratings, Teoscar Hernandez was seen as an asset in the power and speed categories (PW, SB) and he’s enjoyed a breakout thus far in 2018 with BABS assigning him a (P+, s, A+) rating through his first 72 AB. The average has since dropped from .292 to .247, but the power still remains (8 HR, .259 ISO).
You’d think trading would be easier when you have a plethora of high-performing players, but the opposite can be true. There’s a lot of pressure to make sure you don’t sell the wrong players, weakening your team while strengthening the competition. Perhaps people don’t see Mitch Haniger as the player BABS does (P+, AV) but with marked improvements in approach (11 BB%, 0.53 BB/K compared to 8% and 0.33 in 2017, respectively) and batted ball skills (42% hard contact versus just 35% last season), he’s someone you may want to hang on to. Other managers may also see Haniger turning into a pumpkin soon, which puts his trade value into question and makes him more profitable to keep.
Evaluate the competition
Paying close attention to the performance of your league-mates is critical, and that doesn’t just mean the standings. Yes, you should know how big of a lead you have in various categories and how close other teams are to catching you, but scouting their rosters is just as important. Whichever team has Paul Goldschmidt (pictured), for example, is bound to see a spike in power once he shakes off the early-season rust. Despite just 4 HR and 2 SB in his first 106 AB prior to the May database update, BABS still saw Goldschmidt as an extreme asset in both categories (P+, SB+). And, as a career .294 hitter, he’s likely to regress positively and provide value in batting average as well. You have to build that coming spike into your expectations for its impact on the standings.
Injuries can be just as significant. Justin Turner started the season on the disabled list and only returned in recent weeks, but he’s an impact bat (PW, AV) who can provide consistent production when healthy. Anyone who smartly stashed Turner could be due for what amounts to a free boost in offense.
Think outside the box
Don’t be afraid to get creative; it helps to be constantly brainstorming ways to improve on what you currently have. Everything rides on the performance of players you have no control over, but as long as you don’t leave any stone unturned, you can protect your place in the standings.
The moral of the story: objects in mirror are closer than they appear.