Early first round underperformers

This is my weekly article for ESPN Insider.

When we draft players in the first round, or spend $30 or more for them in auctions, we expect them to provide a statistical foundation to our teams. Although we are only a month into the season, the fates of these players are likely tied tightly into our own current success or failure.

Of course, those lucky enough to own the early surprises – players like Jed Lowrie, Mitch Haniger and Patrick Corbin – are likely riding the surge in their league standings. But those who drafted to fair value – players like Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Max Scherzer – are probably faring well too.

But not all those in the pre-season top 15 are playing to expectation. In fact, six of them are currently earning less than $20, leaving their owners at least $10 in the red. Of course, a $15 earner is still contributing to your team, but those are statistics you can get in the eighth round, not the first.

As such, it is worthwhile to see whether the struggling first-rounders are likely to turn things around. Our teams’ fates depend on it.

Pre-season ADP No. 3. Nolan Arenado (Currently earning $15, pictured): Most Arenado owners are not likely concerned about the slow start (4 HR, 13 RBI, .310) because a .300-plus batting average still has great value these days. In addition, his five-game suspension represented a full 20 percent loss in playing time at this early stage of the season, which also impacted his earnings.

However, there are a few foreign indicators in his skill set. Career highs in walk rate (15 percent) and BABIP (.354), and career low in contact rate (78 percent) question whether there is some batting average downside. His fly ball rate has dropped below 40 percent for the first time in five years, which might impact his power output. His other underlying metrics remain strong, so this all might normalize on their own.

5. Clayton Kershaw ($11): Through six starts, Kershaw’s stats are not super-human, just normal, run-of-the-mill elite (2.84 ERA, 42 strikeouts, but just 1-4). Still, there are a few warning signs. His 9.9 strikeout rate is at a five-year low. His 2.1 walk rate is at a six-year high. His 91.0 mph fastball velocity has declined in each of the past three years. And his 3.41 FIP is at its highest level since his rookie year.

That said, Kershaw has had slow starts before. Back in 2015, he came out of April with a 3.73 ERA and even opened June at 3.86. He finished that season with an ERA of 2.13 in 232.2 innings. That was also the last season he reached the 200-inning plateau. So if there is any concern now, it should only be about the innings.

6. Paul Goldschmidt ($18): Early returns on the humidor in Arizona seem to point to its effectiveness in suppressing offense. But Goldschmidt owners certainly cannot afford for his numbers (4 HR, 11 RBI, .273) to be impacted to this extent.

Goldschmidt’s 64 percent contact rate is 10 percent off from his career levels, which feeds into a batting average that is at least 25 points from his norms. Equally worrisome is that his .390 BABIP could mean further batting average downside. And Goldschmidt is still homerless at home, with a .231/.464/.385 slash line. The sample sizes are still small, but I’d be cautious with expectations.

8. Giancarlo Stanton ($17): Recency bias elevated Stanton’s ADP after the massive breakout in 2017, but his volatile track record always presented the possibility of a start like this one (5 HR, 15 RBI, .230). Add in the change of team and league, and you can’t discount any early struggles.

In a snapshot, there are a few concerning indicators. His 62 percent contact rate is 11 percent off last year’s apparent improvement, but pretty much in line with what he posted pre-2017. His low 9 percent walk rate is showing less patience at the plate. His 52 percent ground ball rate is a big jump from his norms, and could impact his power numbers.

History would indicate that these are all potentially correctable, but Stanton’s history also says that anything is possible. Remember that, prior to 2017, he had never hit even 38 home runs in a season. Regression is a given; how much is the question.

12. Chris Sale ($19): In the experts leagues, Sale went for $38 (LABR) and $39 (Tout Wars). Despite his “decent” April stats (2 wins, 2.31 ERA, 45 strikeouts), drafters paid for more than just “decent.” However, there is really nothing wrong with Sale. His skills indicators show some minor regression, but nothing that can’t be explained away by normal small sample volatility.

So, why only $19? Because all rotisserie earnings are calculated within the context of how the player population is performing as a whole. As long as pitchers like Sean Manaea, Patrick Corbin and Johnny Cueto are posting ridiculously unsustainable stats, Sale’s numbers are going to look pedestrian by comparison. But we know who is for real, and as those others come down to earth, Sale’s earnings will normalize to levels we expect.

15. Kris Bryant ($7): Another factor suppressing the earnings of some of these players is the record-breaking number of April postponements that has eaten into playing time. The Cubs have lost five games and Bryant missed four more after being hit by a pitch in the head. So his earnings calculated on 102 plate appearances (2 HR, 11 RBI, .291) is going to trail someone who has missed less time, like George Springer (133 PA).

That said, Bryant’s early indicators are actually showing growth. His 15 percent walk rate and 82 percent contact rate are both career highs, and he’s hitting the ball as hard as he ever has. A depressed 32 percent fly ball rate has eaten into his home run total, as has his 10 percent home run to fly ball rate, which is likely a small sample anomaly.

In the end, it’s just one month. April aberrations are common. When it comes to first-rounders, patience is still the watchword.

BABSNotes: The first in-season BABS update has been posted. Here is an early look at the pre-season and current BABS ratings for these players.

ADP	PLAYER	Pre-Season	Current
3	Nolan Arenado	P+   A+	P+   A+
5	Clayton Kershaw	E+   KK	ER   KK
6	Paul Goldschmidt	PW   AV	P+   SB
8	Giancarlo Stanton	P+   AV	P+   SB
12	Chris Sale	E+   K+	E+   KK
15	Kris Bryant	PW   AV	PW   AV

Arenado and Bryant are exactly where we expected them to be. Pitchers Kershaw and Sale are showing some minor regression, but that has to be expected from the heights where they have been perched. Goldschmidt and Stanton are showing some early batting average loss and some anomalous speed assets which are the result of small sample sizes. As always, BABS is a long-view tool so some of these aberrations will wash out over time.