Deconstructing Ozzie Albies

by Chris Doyle

Usually scouts have an idea of who players are before they reach the major leagues.

“Player X is a power-speed guy who has the potential to go 20-20 someday.”

“Player Y throws hard but he has command issues.”

That said, every now and then someone surprises even the most experienced baseball people with skills that few saw coming.

With that in mind, who exactly is Ozzie Albies?

Originally touted as a defense-first contact hitter with speed, Albies is morphing into much more than that. Let’s dive a bit deeper into the three main offensive skills: speed, hitting and power.

Speed

BABS views Albies as a significant asset in the speed department (S+), and it’s obviously tough to argue with that based on his minor league track record.

Over the past three minor league seasons, Albies has posted stolen base totals of 29, 30 and 21, with the latter coming in just 97 games in 2017 before being summoned to Atlanta in August.

A quick look at the Statcast leaderboards for 2017 certainly backed up this skill: Albies ranked 25th in sprint speed at 28.9 MPH, equaling the marks put up by noted speedsters Adam Eaton and Whit Merrifield. He swiped eight bags in nine attempts once he reached the big leagues last season.

The speed is for real, and hitting atop the Braves lineup should afford him plenty opportunities to run.

Hitting ability

When Albies first entered the Braves system he was a high contact, high average hitter with little pop but a great approach at the plate. Across two levels of Rookie ball in 2014 as a 17-year old, Albies walked more than his struck out and maintained an extremely high .400+ BABIP that was clearly aided by his immense speed and propensity to hit the ball on the ground (over 50% ground ball rate).

His approach has significantly changed over the years, beginning with his batted ball profile. Through 2016, Albies hovered right around the 50% GB mark but he clearly made alterations heading into 2017. In those 97 games and 411 at-bats at Triple-A, Albies dropped his GB rate to 42.4%. Previously a .300 hitter in the minors, Albies’ average fell to .285 with fewer opportunities to use his legs to his advantage.

His walk and strikeout rates continued to diverge, too; his 6.3 BB% and 20.1 K% at Triple-A in 2017 were the lowest and highest of his career, respectively. To many, this could be seen as a sign of trouble, but it’s become obvious what his endgame was.

Power

In three seasons from 2014-2016, Albies hit a total of seven home runs in 1,296 plate appearances. Once his approach changed in 2017, that number spiked to nine homers in just 448 PA. Albies was hitting more fly balls and they were leaving the yard at a career-best 7.6%.

When the Braves recalled him at the start of August, he was a much different hitter than when he broke into the system back in 2014. Albies finished the year in Atlanta posting a .286/.354/.456 slash line, including six home runs, nine doubles and five triples and defying all expectations as a 20-year-old.

So, is this version the new Albies going forward?

2018

Albies has picked up right where he left off last season.

Through 14 games and 67 PA, the Curaçao native has slugged five homers, eight doubles and a triple for an eye-popping .703 slugging percentage. His fly ball rate has climbed to 45.3% while his ground ball rate has plummeted to 35.8%, the lowest in his North American baseball career.

He’s pulling the ball nearly half the time (46.3%), a good sign for his power numbers, and to top it all off his contact rates are trending up as well. Albies has been more aggressive on pitches in the strike zone so far in 2018, swinging 76.4% of the time compared to 73.4% last season. In addition, he’s putting bat to ball more often on these swings at 86.4%, up from 84.8%. His overall swinging strike rate has fallen from 10.3% to 9.1%, and the increase in chase rate is hardly noticeable (33.3% to 34.3%).

One area of concern is his walk rate, as he’s taken just one free pass in 67 PA, but his strikeout rate is still a manageable 16.4%. His .313 average is supported by an not-otherworldly .313 BABIP, too.

Conclusion

In short, this wave is one worth riding. Sample sizes are still very small, of course, but the new version of Albies has been marinating for some time now. If he continues to hit the ball in the air at his current pace, he won’t be quite the batting average stud he was originally predicted to be, but the increased thump at a power-starved position will more than make up for the loss of a few percentage points.

Ronald Acuna gets all the attention as the Braves star of the future, but Albies is less than a year older and already has a 1.9 WAR major league season under his belt – in only 57 games.

It’s not hard to envision Albies blossoming into a multi-skilled BABS monster very soon.