Opening week standouts
By Chris Doyle
Jumping to conclusions is hard to avoid this early in the season.
Winters are long and spring training is noisy, so when we finally get some legitimate data it’s easy to get caught up. One of the most satisfying things to do is proclaim how right you were about that breakout pick of yours.
But putting too much weight into early-season performances can be a dangerous game. An 0-for-18 start to the season is no different than an 0-for-18 in July, but with no statistical base it looks much worse in April.
That said, let’s look at some of the standouts – good and bad.
The strong starters
Matt Davidson of the White Sox started things with a bang on opening day, swatting 3 HR and putting him firmly on the fantasy radar. Davidson has never lacked pop; in fact, his power is borderline elite. BABS awarded him a (P+) rating last season after he clubbed 26 HR in just 414 AB and a (PW) tag heading into 2018.
The downside to the power, however, is the swing-and-miss, which manifests itself in an (-AV) liability. With no other assets to speak of currently – plus additional health (inj-) and experience (e) liability grades – counting on Davidson as anything more than an empty power source is ill-advised.
That said, the (really) early returns outside the power department are somewhat encouraging. Davidson has struck out only twice in his first 13 plate appearances to go along with a pair of walks, and his minor league track record suggests he knows how to work a free pass. He’s the perfect example of a low-risk waiver pickup, provided you have someone you can reasonably afford to cut.
Adam Eaton (s,AV) is a BABS darling and someone who doesn’t seem to get the respect he deserves in fantasy circles. His early-season success, when you put it up against what he did last April before going down for the season, looks legit.
Eaton was a top-20 outfielder in 2015 and 2016, hitting in a below average lineup, and other than his freak injury last season he has no liabilities to speak of. He’s as safe a play as you can find and a sure bet to have a solid and potentially outstanding season, albeit not quite at the breakneck pace he’s shown through early games.
How about Paul DeJong? The power and average (PW,a) have been on display, the sophomore shortstop is hitting .467 with 3 HR already. But that’s on the strength of a .667 BABIP and he’s struck out six times in 16 PA (37.5 K%). The nosedive is coming eventually, it’s just a matter of when and how far he will fall. No harm in riding the hot hand, though.
Speaking of hot, Xander Bogaerts (s,AV) has been scorching, and he looks like a completely different hitter. Heading into Tuesday’s action, Bogaerts (pictured) was slugging .818 on the strength of an MLB-best five doubles. Never a flyball hitter, Bogaerts has lifted more than half of his balls in the air so far this season, and while his hard contact is down, so is his soft contact. Bogaerts has generally run up some high BABIPs that have helped him remain an asset in the batting average category since 2015, but that won’t be easy to do if he keeps hitting the ball in the air. That said, you won’t see too many complaints if he trades some average for power.
The slow starters
To reiterate, it’s much too soon to sound the alarm on anyone in particular but certain trends bear watching. When you see a pitcher’s velocity drop, that can signify trouble to come. Danny Duffy’s average fastball velocity was a shade under 95 MPH in 2016 and fell to 92.8 in 2017. Through his first start in 2018 it sits at 91.2. That’s troublesome. Two seasons ago, Duffy was an asset in the strikeout department (KK) but BABS didn’t paint the same picture in 2017 after an injury-plagued campaign. She found it in her heart to forecast some positive regression for 2018 (e,k) but with another velocity dive that may prove to be a difficult task.
Should we be concerned about Aaron Judge’s start? Not yet, but we can certainly look under the hood and see if there’s smoke. If you’re a Judge owner this season you should have drafted him banking only on the power (P+), which will come eventually. His hard contact rate (22%) is half what it was last year, he’s pulling more balls (55% to 41% in 2017) and two-thirds of his batted balls have been infield pop-ups. It looks like he may simply be pressing a bit right now. Give him time.
Byron Buxton has also had a rough go in his first four games, going 3-for-15 with 6 K and 0 BB. Similar to Judge though, you’re mainly owning Buxton for his one elite asset. In this case it’s his speed, and he hasn’t disappointed on the basepaths, going 2-for-2 in the earlygoing. Nothing to worry about here at the moment.
Conclusion
Remember, don’t put too much stock in the extremes.
But, it’s ok to get excited, too. After all, it is fantasy.
If you are drafting (bidding) this coming weekend (4/8), would you give any potential boost/decrease due to hot or cold starts if stats are retroactive?
The only thing I do differently is, in a mixed league, I won’t take on a pitcher that has been shelled badly in his first outing. Too many other options available. But other than that, I try to treat it as background noise and not let it affect my thinking.
The last thing you want to do is completely change your draft strategy based on one outing or a handful of games, especially for players who have previously proven themselves. But if it’s a late round pick then perhaps that early cold start is a deciding factor. Keep in mind though that one bad start or a few o-fers can happen any time, and they all count the same in the end.
No way I’m letting one start affect my draft strategy at this point. Everything too unpredictable in first month. I feel like you do have more of an idea on guys like Jose Martinez versus Ryan McMahon on playing time. Another example is the The Brewers outfield situation because they are all quality adds but obviously some playing time cut for Thames and Santana. That is the only thing I would look to adjust. Ron always says it best, “give it 2 months before doing anything or making any conclusions”.
Avoiding a few pitchers in a Mixed league where there is plenty of other similar options is not completely changing up the draft strategy. Unless it is an upper-tier pitcher, then there are plenty others I can pursue. A 1.1 inning, 8 ER shelling is not something I have to roster. In a single AL/NL league, I get your point, but in a shallow mixed league… onto the next.
Unless a player’s cold start is the sign of an injury—or the lingering effects of a prior injury that has not yet healed—, I would not re-value that player’s assets to differ from those that BABS has identified. Her valuation represents 3 years of collected data; a cold start represents (at the moment) 5 games. That is 3% of one year.
The stats accumulated during that cold period will be off-set by the remaining performance over the course of the season. To give a concrete example, I would want to pick up Carlos Martinez, even though he was shelled on his Opening Day start. Those initial stats won’t hurt for long.
I not advocating re-evaluating a pitcher. I’m saying in a shallow mixed league, if it’s a run of the mill starter, there are PLENTY of other nearly identical pitchers to chose from, without taking the board-up-side-the-head outing. Carlos Martinez is not in that category. He’s an upper tier starter that sits in the same BABS Asset group as Bumgarner, Grienke, Nola and Castillo. You don’t have the luxury of just picking another similar pitcher. If Michael Wacha gets hammered, there are many others with the exact same skill set and that will cost about the same.
Sorry Merv–I wasn’t meaning to respond so much to your comment, as to Rick’s initial question about boosting or decreasing a player’s value according to a hot or cold start. It’s in that context that I had intended my example of Carlos Martinez to be understood.
If, as you indicate, a manager decides to pick a player comparable to Michael Wacha, but with better initial stats, that makes sense. The players are interchangeable since, by definition, they share the same skill set. An extra win or a better ERA is extra icing on the same cake.
To backup Merv that hot early starts count for something, Joe Panik F AV, was somewhat similar but perhaps less favored than Kolten Wong F s a -inj last week. Ownership in shallow leagues at RT Sports is 13% for Panik and 3% for Wong, and I’d go with the group on that one. The lower we go in the rankings, the more players we have clumped together, the more we can temper our focus on skills and consider playing time changes, hot starts, or spot in the batting order. I mean, even if I drop Wong, I can pick him up again in 97% of leagues so there’s no harm there.
Hi Chris … I have used BABS for the last 2 years in our auctions, but still trying to get a handle on the best way to leverage BABS. You comment on Eaton being a “darling” and “safe play” surprised me a bit as Eaton had a INJ liability this pre-season. I have to admit I dont remember the specific circumstances around Eaton’s injury last season, but you mentioned it was a “freak” one.
I understand you are not the one creating these ratings, but could you share how you quantified Eaton’s INJ rating for your personal ratings this year? Thanx