BABS evaluates the young crop
By Justin Cary
Predicting a full year of a player can be a risky endeavor when you only have one year of historical data. BABS’ Experience liability tells you that the performance of these players is not set in stone and that their skill sets could look different a year from now. So which young players own their skills and which ones should owners stay away from?
The Power Group
When you look at the power group, the ADPs of Cody Bellinger (P+,s,a) and Rhys Hoskins (P+,a) show how bullish the industry has become, ranking them Nos. 24 and 50, respectively. It may be seem to be too easy to expect a regression entering their second season, but BABS continues to project their skills are real and probably safe to speculate on.
Everyone has read about the coming regression for Aaron Judge (P+), but his ADP is currently 18! BABS expects the batting average to regress, but the power to maintain. Not saying Judge is an average player; just don’t overpay.
Another possible regression alert but still a nice player could be Andrew Benintendi at No. 42. Many websites expect him to reach 20 steals, but BABS questions his speed skill. Ultimately, that puts Benintendi in a later asset group (p,AV) with options like Ryan Braun and Eddie Rosario.
One standout that BABS has not fully bought into yet is Rafael Devers (a). Devers posted solid power numbers in his first action and projections on multiple websites indicate 25-30 HR upside. BABS questions his power metrics and owners should anticipate those numbers falling short. Instead, look at Matt Olson, Paul DeJong, or Yoan Moncada at similar ADPs.
The strikeout rates put up by DeJong (PW,a) and Moncada (p,a) continue to be concerning, but BABS is a believer in their power. Furthermore, their BABIP, contact rates, and hard hit rates support solid batting averages. Owners should be bullish on these middle infielders.
The Speed Group
The second year Speed Group includes Manuel Margot (SB,a), Bradley Zimmer (SB), Amed Rosario (SB,a), Ozzy Albies (S+), and David Dahl (SB,a). Margot and Zimmer made solid debuts with over 15 steals apiece in 2017. BABS indicates that Albies has the elite speed of the group. Does the data support even more upside?
| Ct% | Walk% | AVG | BABIP | |
| Margot | 81% | 6.60% | .263 | .309 |
| Zimmer | 70% | 7.80% | .241 | .328 |
| Albies | 80% | 8.60% | .286 | .316 |
| Rosario | 68% | 1.80% | .248 | .330 |
| Dahl | 72% | 6.30% | .243 | .294 |
The metrics indicate that Margot and Albies are the standouts; their ADPs are similar at around 140. Rosario and Dahl (pictured) have similar skill sets but both are being discounted 100 picks and could be undervalued.
The Pitchers
Luke Weaver and Luis Castillo (both Er,k) are the most sought after second year starters. BABS rates them in the same asset group as Madison Bumgarner, Carlos Martinez and Zack Greinke, who all go 50 picks earlier. Buying opportunity here.
One player that had a nice debut was Jordan Montgomery, but BABS has her doubts about a repeat performance (k), as does the marketplace (250 ADP). Instead, owners might consider an interesting grouping of strikeout artists Dinelson Lamet (KK), Luiz Gohara (KK), and Jake Faria (k). If you dare to speculate, the FIP for Gohara seems more enticing than the other two.
| ADP | ERA | FIP | ||
| Dinelson | Lamet | 220 | 4.57 | 4.35 |
| Jake | Faria | 243 | 3.43 | 4.12 |
| Luiz | Gohara | 290 | 4.91 | 2.75 |
The Rookies
We can probably speculate and analyze to death the upcoming rookies this year but BABS highlights the potential. Early BABS scans paint a clearer picture of Ryan McMahon (p, AV), Victor Robles (SB, AV), and Nick Senzel (p, AV) as the ones to get aggressive with while BABS is still uncertain about Ronald Acuna, Lewis Brinson, and Gleyber Torres but BABS’ Major League equivalent ratings are optimistic – Acuna is (s,A+), Brinson is (p,s,AV) and Torres is (p,AV).
If you are looking for a late draft pick with big time pitching potential, BABS has her eyes on Michael Kopech (e,KK). Should he get his chance, his skill set potentially puts him in the same asset group as Chris Archer, Rich Hill and Lance McCullers.
Ron,
I know you have said that the team a pitcher plays for is not a predictor of their win totals … that teams often underperform or overperform. However, when looking at a pitcher like Faria, should we consider that the Rays face the Yankees and Red Sox 16 times apiece? Should that factor into taking a Lamet or Goahara over him?
The problem is not in identifying what seems like a logical edge. In this case, it is. The problem is assuming that edge is predictable enough for you to make decision. Yes, Faria is going to have to face the Yanks and BoSox. But Lamet is going to have to face the Dodgers, D-backs and pitch in Coors Field. Gohara will have to face the Nats and rejuvenated Mets (yes they are, and not just because I’m a fan). You might say, well, Yanks-Sox trumps Nat-Mets, but you would start to get so deeply into the weeds that any decision you make would be overcome with small sample variability and noise. Just pick the pitcher with the best potential skill and opportunity for playing time.
I love BABS, and the hitter portion of this article seemed right on to me. But I must respectfully disagree with the Castillo, Weaver conclusions. It would have seemed more BABSian to me if you said “…Castillo and Weaver have demonstrated Er, k skill sets but the small sample size makes them too risky for where they are going in drafts.” In fact, I am not sure how either carry an F when neither has logged even 100 IPs at major league levels? I get why Paxton, Richards, Wood, maybe Tanaka are shown as M in that class, but i don’t get why Castillo and Weaver aren’t also M and rated accordingly. This makes it seem like we should pass on MadBum and Greinke and take Castillo and Weaver instead. Which normally is the great thing about BABS. But in this case I dont get it…
I get what you are saying on the playing time issue and I’m having a hard time with that myself. I will let Ron opine on the playing time issue you are referring.
I would say that I don’t think it’s an either/or issue. Its how you want to construct your staff. If you want Madbum or Greinke, take them. All BABS is telling you is the skill sets of Castillo and Weaver are the same but they should be discounted for that EX liability which is a risk. Castillo and Weaver are discounted 50 picks which is probably appropriate, but BABS is bullish on the skill set. However, we do not want to take those guys as our #1 or maybe #2 starters (depends on how many have been taken). For example, I tend to avoid all liabilities in my starters to begin my draft but as I work my way down to the #3, #4 spots, you would buy these guys. The key to BABS/winning is to buy the higher skill set at a lower price.
Anybody, who is Fernando Tatis Jr and why is he being added to so many teams?
Thanks Justin. I agree with your overall comments on roster construction for your pitchers, and how BABS can be a great guide when doing so.
My hangup, though, is that when we get into the specifics of Castillo and Weaver, they are being drafted in rounds 5-6, and AAV of $16-22. Which means they are not going to be your #3 or #4 starter. Further, in the BABS ranking of Full time SPs, they rank #13, 14 respectively. Worst case #16, 17 if we include the 3 M SPs listed ahead of them by skills. As such, I guess my main point remains that taking either of these 2 guys at their current ADP/AAV doesn’t therefore seem to fit the BABs approach to selecting our staff.
Thanks again, and no doubt one of these guys will now be Cy Young this year…on another roster but mine 🙂
Tatis Jr is one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball and a dynasty league gem. I’d expect he’s being added solely on the speculation he continues his ascent and somehow reaches the majors in 2018, but that seems far-fetched to me. He hasn’t yet hit above Double-A and at 19 years old there’s no reason for the Padres to rush him. Even as an end-gamer I’m not sure I’d use a roster spot on him this year.