The dwindling 200-IP pitcher

This week’s BABS-enhanced ESPN piece.

Here is the stat for today:

In 2016, there were 61 pitchers from among the ADP Top 300 who spent some time on the disabled list. Just 11 weeks into this season, there are already 52 pitchers from the Top 300 who’ve spent some time on the shelf.

That stat is not necessarily as dire as it sounds as the new 10-day DL has had some impact. But even if there was a 20 percent increase in DL stints, we would have expected only about 30-35 pitchers to have hit the DL so far, not 52.

The logical fallout from increased DL stays is fewer pitchers reaching the 200 inning threshold. Currently, there are 20 pitchers who are on that pace. History has shown that this number will likely erode as the season wears on, perhaps by as much as 30-40 percent. The increase in injuries could push it to the high end of the scale. That would leave us with an interesting trend:

Number of 200-Inning Pitchers, By Year

2008:   34
2009:   36
2010:   45
2011:   39
2012:   31
2013:   36
2014:   34
2015:   28
2016:   15
2017:   12-14 projected

Injuries and the increase in specialization are the key factors driving this trend. From a fantasy perspective, it’s a worthwhile exercise to do a quick scan of the 20 pitchers currently on the 200-IP pace to see where the attrition is most likely to come from. Injuries can happen to anyone, but previous health histories, workload track records, overall team performance and age can be useful to identify weak spots.

Here are the pitchers on pace for 200 innings, in order of IP to date. For our website, I’ve added the current BABS ratings for each one, which provides just a bit more insight.

Clayton Kershaw (ER, K+) leads the pack and is on pace for over 230 innings, which would match the workload from his injury-free seasons. But we can’t ignore the injury threat, especially since his support metrics are slightly off from previous levels (on a scale from 1 to 10, he was an 11; now he’s a 10.) But barring injury, he’s already halfway to 200 and should easily reach it.

Max Scherzer (ER,K+) is on pace for 225 IP, which matches his past three season’s output. He is also already halfway to 200 and should easily reach it.

Chris Sale (ER,K+) pitched a career-high 227 innings last year and is on pace for nearly the same this year. This could be the first season that he posts a sub-3.00 ERA in over 200 innings.

Chris Archer (e,K+) is on pace for 220 innings, which would be a career high. He is also facing more than 27 batters per game, which is also a career high by over a batter per game. From a skills metrics perspective, this is one of his best years, and he’s underperforming his xFIP by half a run. I’d ride it out.

Ivan Nova (e) is on pace for 215 innings, which would be his first 200 IP season and exceed his previous career high by 45 IP. At age 30, he can probably shoulder the additional workload, though there might be a question whether the Pirates will push his innings if they fall out of the race.

Ervin Santana (ER) has reached the 200 IP level five times in his 12-year career and is on pace for 215 innings now. Most of his previous high-inning seasons were supported by solid skills, but at 34, and with a horrible 4.91 xFIP, odds are the wall will come crashing down at some point. When that happens, his innings count will fade.

Carlos Martinez (ER,KK) has been building up his workload over the past few years, and so the 210-inning pace he’s on at age 25 could be sustainable.

Clayton Richard ( ) hurled 219 innings in 2012 but has not reached even 70 innings in a season since. He is currently on pace for 210 IP with a 4.20 ERA. If he stays healthy, he may be forced to absorb many bad innings on a bad team.

Yu Darvish (e,KK) tossed 210 innings in 2013, and since then has spent 332 days on the disabled list. Though he’s on pace for 210 IP again, he’s a high risk to reach 200.

Johnny Cueto (k) is on pace for 210 innings but is posting his worst ERA and xFIP of this decade. With the Giants likely beyond hope of contending, odds are they won’t push his innings.

Rick Porcello’s (k) post-Cy Young recoil is not as bad as it looks, thanks to a .366 BABIP. On pace for 210 innings, he could make it if his ERA normalizes.

Dylan Bundy’s ( ) workload has been monitored closely as the Orioles try to keep the 24-year-old healthy. After tossing 110 innings in 2016, a 150-175 IP target might have been more prudent, but he’s currently on pace for 210. I’m dubious.

Jeff Samardzija (e,KK) has thrown over 200 innings for four straight years, regardless of the quality of his performance. So there’s no reason to doubt his current 205-inning pace.

Stephen Strasburg (ER,KK) managed a 215-inning campaign in 2014 but has battled injuries to his oblique, neck, elbow and back in the two seasons since. I’d bet the under on his current 205-inning pace.

Tyler Chatwood ( ) missed nearly all of 2014 and 2015 after Tommy John surgery, then managed 158 IP in 2016. He’s not a high-skilled pitcher, though he’s been maximizing his starts outside of Coors Field. His 205-IP pace is probably a 50-50 shot.

Gerrit Cole’s ( ) skills have paled compared to 2015, and while he appears healthy, the Pirates might not push his 205-inning pace.

Zack Greinke (ER,KK), pictured, has shouldered 200-inning seasons six times in his career and there seems little reason to doubt his 205-IP pace in this rebound year.

Jon Lester (k) has been a workhorse, posting 200-IP seasons for five straight years, and eight of the last nine. Barring injury, his current 200-IP pace seems assured.

Jacob deGrom (K+) would post his first 200-IP season if he keeps up his current pace. Given the Mets’ hobbling pitching staff, he may be pushed to that point.

Marcus Stroman (ER) threw 204 innings last year and is on pace for 200 again. He’d be a good bet to repeat.