Is a .400 BABIP sustainable?
My ESPN column for the week.
Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is one of those leading indicator metrics that can identify potential outlying performances. It is not a perfect gauge, but extremes are rarely sustainable. Pitchers’ BABIPs tend to regress to something near .300. Batters’ BABIPs tend to regress to their own established career rate, which typically does not stray far from .300.
In the history of Major League Baseball, there have been only 26 instances where a player has gone an entire season (minimum 500 plate appearances) with a BABIP of .400. Ty Cobb alone makes up seven of those 26 instances, including the all-time record of .444 in 1911. George Sisler, Rogers Hornsby and Shoeless Joe Jackson each make two appearances on the list.
There are only four players who’ve accomplished the feat since 1936: Roberto Clemente (.403 in 1967), Rod Carew (.408 in 1977), Manny Ramirez (.403 in 2000) and Jose Hernandez (.404 in 2002, pictured).
In general terms, there are two ways to construct a .400 BABIP. Almost three quarters of the players listed had contact rates of 90% or better, but likely benefitted from the more porous defenses of pre-1936 baseball. The other path to .400 is by putting fewer balls in play and being more efficient in the batted balls that can be fielded. That makes it possible for a high-strikeout hitter to accomplish the feat, though it is not easy.
The most recent names on the list – Ramirez and Hernandez – managed to fall into this latter group. In fact, Hernandez was an extreme outlier. Of the 26 players on the list…
- He was the only one who batted under .350. (.288)
- He was the only one with an on base average under .400. (.356)
- He was the only one with a slugging average under .500. (.478)
- He was one of two with a contact rate under 82 percent. (64%)
- He was one of three who led the league in strikeouts. (188)
Hernandez represents the only player in the history of the game who assembled this unique set of metrics. However, there are six players this season currently on pace for 500 plate appearances and a .400-plus BABIP; several of them own a Hernandez-like profile. Given the outlying nature of many of this year’s performances, might this be the recipe for adding more names to the list?
Here are the candidates, in order of current Rotisserie earnings:
Aaron Judge ($44): In less than 220 AB, Judge has posted numbers that most young players would love to have over a full season. But it’s tough to project out this level of productivity over another three-plus months. A .347 batting average can’t hold up with a 66 percent contact rate and .437 BABIP. A 42 percent home run to fly ball rate is extreme and unsustainable. Simply put, if Judge were able to keep this pace for the entire season – 57 HR, 127 RBI, .347 BA – it would rank among the top 10 single season performances in the history of the game.
Ryan Zimmerman ($34): A .365 batting average with a 79 percent contact rate is a little more interesting. At least there is some underlying skill here that goes beyond his .397 BABIP. However, for a player with an extensive injury history, who is currently nursing a sore back, the percentage play would be to bet against 500 plate appearances.
Avisail Garcia ($26): After four seasons in the majors, Garcia had never sustained a batting average of even .260 over more than 244 AB, so his current .333 mark (and .404 BABIP) seems anomalous. His 78 percent contact rate on June 1 lent some support, but that level has dropped 10 percent so far this month and could be a sign of impending collapse.
Miguel Sano ($22): With a .423 BABIP and miniscule 58 percent contact rate, Sano seems the least likely to sustain his current levels. In fact, his June performance alone – .273 average .320 BABIP – shows that the correction has already begun. It could sink lower.
Tim Beckham ($14) hit just .247 in 2016 yet posted a .349 BABIP – high for a sub-.250 hitter. So when he added 30 points to his batting average with a .380 BABIP to open this season, it was not all that surprising. But he’s surged even higher in June – .371 BA, .520 BABIP – pushing him into uncharted territory. Still, a season-long .394 BABIP with a 65 percent contact rate seems unsustainable.
Justin Turner ($10): Missing three weeks with a hamstring injury could put 500 plate appearances at risk, but his current stat line is still admirable. A .300-plus average is fully supportable by an 85 percent contact rate, and while his .383 level will likely regress, there is enough buffer in his .437 BABIP to make this interesting.
It’s been 15 years since Hernandez accomplished his feat, and he remains just one player in more than a century’s worth of player seasons, so it is tough to see him as a bellwether. However, his 2002 feat was during an offense-heavy time in our history. Might our current environment provide a similar confluence of factors to create another .400 BABIP season?
I look to the rising list of disabled list stays and the diluting of pitching talent in both leagues. As of today, 37 percent of the top 300 players coming into the season have spent some time on the DL. (The full season high since 2009, when records were first kept, was 53 percent in 2014.)
Then I look to see that the team with the second best record in baseball is the Colorado Rockies, with full support of their underlying metrics. Finally, I look to the Houston Astros, the team with the best record in baseball, and scan the ERAs of their current starting rotation…
Current Lifetime MLB Experience Joe Musgrove 4.81 4.43 2 years Mike Fiers 4.29 3.91 7 years Brad Peacock 3.15 4.41 6 years Francis Martes 9.82 9.82 Rookie David Paulino 6.59 6.10 2 years
…and I think that anything is possible.