First round churn after 9 weeks
This is my ESPN Insider column for the week.
There is a harsh reality we must buy into: about two-thirds of the players we draft in the first round will not earn back their draft spot. In a 15-team league, that means 10 owners will take a loss on their first round pick; only five picks will return fair value. Through nine weeks of 2017, we are nearly right on track.
The following are the six first-round draftees who are holding up their end of the bargain so far:
Mike Trout (ADP: 1, Current rank: 4): It will be interesting to see whether Trout can maintain the lead he has built despite the time he will be losing on the disabled list. To compare, Clayton Kershaw finished the 2016 season ranked ninth overall despite missing two months.
Clayton Kershaw (3, 3): There are no more superlatives.
Jose Altuve’s (4, 10) contact, hard contact and power metrics are off from 2016, so there remains a possibility that he might drop further.
Paul Goldschmidt (7, 2, pictured): If you need a $40 season, seems like you should draft him in odd-numbered years.
Bryce Harper (9, 11) has apparently calmed any doubts about whether 2015 or 2016 was the real Bryce harper.
Max Scherzer’s (12, 8) elite skills continue to cruise.
Four more players from the top 15 are earning at least $20, which means they are still producing well and could easily rise back into the upper echelon by taking their game up a notch.
Mookie Betts (2, 43) is actually making more hard contact this year, but the BABIP gods have been unkind to his batting average. His numbers will regress a bit from 2016, but we should have expected that.
Nolan Arenado (6, 31): There is absolutely nothing wrong here. His numbers are well within the range of normal statistical volatility, and when some of the early overachievers come back to earth, he will move up.
Trea Turner (10, 34) is a disappointment given the expectations, but the expectations were wrong. Give him 10-15 points of batting average and he’d be exactly where I expected.
Carlos Correa (15, 29): This is a fine growth season, ranked low only because of the early surgers. Odds are he’ll break into the top 20.
The final five could be considered early disappointments. A rebound could be possible for some of them, but none will likely end up finishing among the top 15.
Kris Bryant (5, 74): There has been some serious pullback on key metrics so far, like hard contact and raw power. The fact that he’s hit .181 since May 6 is concerning.
Manny Machado (8, 164): A lower contact rate and .229 BABIP have served to crash his batting average. There is rebound potential here, but he has to start making more contact.
Josh Donaldson’s (11, 416) contact and hard contact are off since coming off the DL, but he has a lot of ground to make up to get anywhere near his draft ranking.
Anthony Rizzo (13, 94) is making the best contact of his career, but it’s mostly soft contact, and his line drives have become groundballs. A .221 BABIP doesn’t help. Defensive shifts may be doing him in.
Madison Bumgarner (14, 405): Done in by a dirt bike.
Who are the players who have claimed spots in the current top 15? Do they have staying power?
Dallas Keuchel (ADP: 145, Current rank: 2) is no stranger to the first round, having finished No. 13 overall in 2015. But a No. 2 ranking is probably over his head given that his support metrics are not quite to 2015’s level. Thank a .222 BABIP and 87 percent strand rate, and admire that 67 percent groundball rate.
Ryan Zimmerman (406, 3) is this season’s biggest profit machine thus far, posting stats that far exceed anything he’s ever done in the past 12 years. His underlying metrics support career high numbers, but not nearly at this level. An unsustainable .413 BABIP and 30 percent home run to fly ball rate mean both his batting average and power output will regress. But he could still finish well within the top 15.
Aaron Judge (349, 6): If we’ve learned anything from players like Trea Turner and Carlos Correa, it’s that anything can happen in small data sets. Judge is the latest beneficiary of this season’s hot streak, but a 65 percent contact rate, 39 percent home run to fly ball rate and .408 BABIP mean it’s all coming down. Odds are he will fade out of the Top 15. Think Adam Dunn.
Charlie Blackmon (17, 7) was close enough to the pre-season Top 15 that his current output should be no surprise. All he needed was a healthy season, and the magic of Coors (.387/.431/.840 at home).
Chris Sale (20, 8) is still riding his 1.19 April ERA to hang on in the top 15. Since May 7, his ERA has been 4.70. He is a fine pitcher, but not first-round worthy.
Elvis Andrus (158, 11): After eight years in the majors, we thought we had Andrus pegged, but this would not be the first time a 28-year-old posted a breakout year. He’s on pace to surpass all his previous career highs in power, speed and batting average, while his support metrics show little variance from history. Can he keep up this pace? I’d bet against, but stranger things have happened.
Ervin Santana (322, 13) has displayed both brilliance and blowouts, but this is not a skill set that would ever be considered a first-rounder. His mid-4.00s BABIP is exactly where it’s always been, and two runs higher than his current ERA. June 3rd’s Anaheim blowout may be the beginning of the end.
Craig Kimbrel (73, 14): It’s rare for a closer to earn first round value (Fernando Rodney did it in 2012) but Kimbrel is posting some amazing skills metrics – 17.1 strikeout rate, 68 percent first pitch strike rate, 22 percent swinging strike rate. .094 opposition batting average and a career high 98.1 mph average fastball velocity. Even with all of that, it’s barely gotten him into the top 15 now, so odds are he drops, but… wow.
Billy Hamilton (52, 15) is doing pretty much what he’s always done, with a few more steals. He’s already driven in 17 runs, which was his total for all of 2016, so there’s that. But this is not a first-rounder.