Trading Trout: Should you liquidate a long-term injury?
This is a special bonus ESPN Insider column for the week.
When Freddie Freeman was injured two weeks ago, his fantasy owners cried out in agony: “He’s the core of my offense! What am I going to do?! My team is toast!”
As a Freeman owner myself, I felt the pain. I paid a hefty $36 for him in Tout Wars and was sitting in second place at the time. I decided to see how others were handling the void, so I polled the readers at RonShandler.com:
You’ve just lost Freddie Freeman for 8-10 weeks. What are you going to do now?
65% Tough it out. Grab whatever I can from the free agent pool.
29% Trade whatever excess I have for a 1B replacement.
6% Trade Freeman for a better 1B replacement.
Scanning the categories, toughing it out was not an option for me. There was too much potential downside; just sliding Cory Spangenberg into Freeman’s vacated spot and picking up a free agent utilityman would not cut it. I did have some excess speed to trade, but the abundance of injuries has put everyone on the defensive about who they’d be willing to deal.
And really, when all was said and done, my most valuable trade chip was Freeman himself.
As the survey showed, most fantasy leaguers don’t readily consider this path. But elite players are worthless when they are on your bench. As long there is an expectation for future value, some other owner will want them. Someone will have enough foresight to see how that player could provide an extra boost in August and September. For the Freeman owner, having something of value to cover those eight-to-10 weeks is better than the alternative.
For me, the problem is that I love Freeman. I tabbed him as a breakout candidate and have been giddy with joy over his performance thus far. How could I not ride this out? But, success often means letting “head” win out over “heart.” I can’t ignore the risks:
- An estimate of eight-to-10 weeks will usually lean towards the high end, and often exceed it.
- There is no guarantee that Freeman will perform up to expectation when he returns.
- Wrist injuries tend to have a longer-term residual effect on a player’s power.
- The Braves are not going anywhere this year; there will be no reason for them to rush him back.
In truth, it is quite possible that Freeman might end up with only token playing time in September.
So I traded Freeman in a multi-player deal, alleviating myself of some excess steals and pulling in some needed saves:
Freddie Freeman and Jose Peraza
for Josh Bell and Cory Knebel
Clearly, Josh Bell is not a viable replacement for Freeman, but he is much better than anything that was in the free agent pool. The answer is borne out even further with a little math. Here are some relevant balance-of-season projections:
AB R H HR RBI SB BA Josh Bell 343 44 93 11 47 5 .271 Freddie Freeman 88 18 28 6 15 2 .318 Variance 255 26 65 5 32 3 .255
That variance line represents the stats that would have to be replaced if the trade is not made. If there is another acquisition that could meet those numbers, either via the free agent pool or a different trade, then that would be the better approach. Here, the decision is close, but I’m not convinced Freeman will be able to maintain a .300 batting average upon his return. (And I think Bell’s upside might be a tad higher.)
After the deal, I received a flurry of comments from others in the league:
“I love liquidating a long-term injury, especially in your position, where the floor is more important probably than a Freeman strong comeback.”
“That was a gutsy move. If Freeman returns full strength, then it becomes a coup for (the other guy).”
“You could have gotten more.”
Maybe. But now I have some real productivity that is better than merely replacement level.
Is this the same scenario now with Mike Trout, who is out for six-to-eight weeks? It would seem so. The Freeman bullet points are all the same, from the recovery risks of hand injuries to the Angels’ position in the standings.
In fact, I received just such a reader request today:
Should I trade Trout for George Springer?
My initial response was Yes! But let’s run the math:
AB R H HR RBI SB BA George Springer 415 72 108 20 57 5 .250 Mike Trout 231 50 74 18 46 11 .320 Variance 184 22 34 2 13 -6 .185
This variance line sets a much lower replacement bar. Since Trout’s numbers are so far superior than Springer’s (and just about anyone else’s), it would require a better player to make this trade worthwhile. There is likely a free agent who could exceed these numbers for the time that Trout will be out. Of course, if you think that Trout won’t meet this projection, then the decision becomes a bit less clear.
But I’d still shop Trout around. The cachet of owning a player with the name “Trout” could well exceed another owner’s ability to make a well-reasoned trade. Play the “heart over head” card here, then do the math.
Thanks, interesting article. A slight variance on this theme for your comment: I own Ryan Zimmerman. Yesterday’s BaseballHQ article about him has me considering trading him now. First of all, do you agree with Ray that trading him now might be a good idea? I need SP. It appears as if I could receive one of the following pitchers in a trade for Ryan: Gray, Gio Gonzalez, Severino, Wacha and Taijuan Walker. If I listen to Ray, what about a trade for Severino? Thanks!
I think there is a situation where you can “have your cake and eat it too.” Many leagues have DL spots or room on their bench. I have three bench spots available in the league in which I have Freeman. I am in a 10 team league and was able to pick up Justin Smoak from the FA pool. I have Smoak at 1B and Freeman is taking up one of my three bench spots. What he can do when he returns is debatable, but at least I have options when he returns, and I think Smoak is a viable replacement.
Sure, in shallow 10-team leagues, this is not an issue. But in 15-teamers, and especially in AL/NL-only leagues, there is no way a Justin Smoak would be available in the free agent pool.
History has shown that you can’t dispute the findings in the Facts/Flukes Spotlights that HQ runs on occasion. But Ray talks about using Zim to diversify, and I think you could get MORE than just a starting pitcher for him, especially if you sell all the positive attributes that he brings to the table. Severino is definitely a good target, and here you can sell Severino’s short track record to try to get a sweetener. If you target any of the other pitchers you list, then you should definitely try to get a solid second player in the deal.
I’m a Freeman owner that was sitting in 1st place (keeper league) and voted to tough it out. My reasoning was that any replacement that I might get in my 12 team NL-only league could also get hurt, traded to the other league or befall some other such calamity that it made trading Freddy a “hold” in my opinion. Besides, doesn’t BABS eschew using ROS projections?
I can see your point, but I can also see mine. As REO Speedwagon says in their song The Key, “all I really know is what I see, and everybody sees it differently.”
I don’t like making decisions based on something that MIGHT happen.
BABS does not eschew ROS projections – she eschews all projections. But that article was for the ESPN audience and they have not been exposed to BABSian philosophy.
Interesting article Ron especially since I own Freeman in few leagues and Trout in one.
It has my actually thinking of it from the other side. When do I trade for Trout or Freeman and how much to offer.
When? Now is a good time, after the Trout/Freeman owner has had a week or two to suffer with the sub-par replacement he’s been using. What you offer is someone who is about halfway between the value of his replacement and Trout/Freeman. But the more important question is whether this is something that YOU can afford to do. Remember that it’s now you who is going to have to deal with the roster void.
Thanks
I have a team with Smoak, Bour and T Joseph at 1b, CI and UT.
Seems like I’m primed to make an offer. Maybe a 2:2.
The Angels are toughing it out and are off to an interesting start with a homerun from Eric Young, Jr? Could fantasy players follow suit? This seems to put an end to any hidden value in Ben Revere. Not that Revere’s value was on everyone’s mind this season.
Um… I drafted Revere this season… on purpose. One down season is not necessarily career-ending. So why are we suddenly interested in EYJr after being M.I.A. for essentially 2+ seasons? Passing judgment after 19 AB?
Shoot. EYJr is available. I was hoping you’d say that it looks like he’s figured it all out and will be a great source of steals. I like Ben Revere too, apparently more than the Angels do anyway. The plan for drafting Ben Revere was that he’d be a bench player who could gain at-bats when the opportunity arose. When that opportunity arrived, the dastardly Angels picked up EYJr out of the blue instead. I empathize with your situation
with Revere. For Angels management to do that is pretty unfair to the fantasy community, and I intend on sending hem a strongly-worded letter.
I’m curious of how you would look at a SP trade of the same stature. I know MadBum was hurt but back by July we hope.
Does the same reasoning take place for a Kershaw, MadBum type of pitcher if they got hurt?
Kershaw, like Trout, would be tough to find an equitable deal. MadBum might be similar. But if the math works, I’d do it.
Ron :
Mike Trout is the premier player in the game. After looking at his ROS projections, I can only say, maybe he reaches them maybe he does not. Clearly hand/wrist injuries are a roll of the dice, and I wouldn’t want to speculate on what his ROS will look like. The one thing I truly believe (very strongly), is if you are planning on him stealing 11 bases (and this figures into value), I seriously doubt that the Angels are going to permit this. Yes he could wear a glove, or slide differently (feet first, this raises another potential problem). I seriously doubt that Trout steals another 5 bases the rest of the way. He literally is their franchise. I just dont see many SBO for him, the rest of the way, and if Steals are a significant part of a trading equation, then I dont believe Trout will be a good play going forward. Just an opinion, we’ll see how it plays out. In a Power Era , steals are not really a significant part of real life baseball anymore. I don’t think the Angels will run the risk.
We’re still in June and reading about Freeman’s possible return. It was a wrist injury so how much power he’ll have it unknown, but there has to be some worry that giving up on him was a terrible mistake. Btw, I saw the Tanaka poll. Having dropped Verlander around the All-star break last year, I can’t repeat that move. Pitcher performances are so volatile that I just gotta leave him on the bench. If he’s still pitching terribly in August then maybe I’ll consider a change.
Any news about a Freeman accelerated return is mostly noise at this point. The wrist issue is potentially real, so if I had to do it over again, I still would have traded him.
I’m surprised to hear you say that, but it makes sense. I remember Teixeira had no power in the season he came back from a wrist injury. I’m sure there are dozens of other examples that I can’t remember. Freeman is only a sample size of one, but he merits discussion because he’s such a great player when healthy. That’s what keeps the hope going, but also what gives him value in a trade – even when injured.
I dropped Freeman in an NL-League (with 0 DL-spots, 5 bench spots, and no trades allowed) and picked up Duda who was luckily available. In a mixed league I dropped him a while back, and then was able to pick him back up again a few days ago as he was still sitting in the free agent pool. I have a bet in both directions on this one. Anyway, I was excited about Freeman saying he felt healthy, but your sobering comment reminds me that they all say that. If I was in my 20s, and in great shape, I’d always say it too.