Not-so-bold June projections

This is my ESPN Insider column for the week.

A month ago, I wrote a column called, “No-so-bold May projections.” The focus was on players whose underlying metrics pointed to a change in fortunes and a rough time frame for when those fortunes might change.

I received a bunch of good feedback on that piece, but more important, many of my rough projections actually came to pass. (Dirty little secret: Nobody can really predict the future.)

In all, I made 14 assertions and hit paydirt on 10 of them. I wrote that the Rockies would not fade. They’re still a dozen games over .500. I described why Jose Altuve’s .326 batting average would drop. He’s hit .278 since. I looked at Lance McCullers’ 4.34 ERA and projected that his next three starts would yield a 2.45 mark. I missed here as his ERA was actually 0.00 over his next four starts!

Here are a few other highlights from May, where I also wrote:

• Starlin Castro’s batting average correction would start with the series against the Cubs. He went 1-for-8 in that epic 18-inning game on May 7, which kicked off a 3-for-22 slump.
• The 13-10 White Sox would crash, beginning in Baltimore. They were swept by the Orioles to start a six-game losing streak and went on to lose 16 of their next 25 games.
• Jeremy Hellickson’s 1.80 ERA would not survive his May 2 start in Wrigley. He went just four innings in that one, allowing six earned runs and ended up with a 7.04 ERA for the month.
• Jonathan Lucroy’s .206 batting average would turn. He’s hit .313 since.
• Kenta Maeda’s 6.58 ERA would begin a march back to relevancy. I give you a 2.95 ERA in three May outings.
• Blake Snell’s 3.42 ERA would not hold up and there would be a massacre in Fenway mid-month. He had a 6.89 ERA this month, including a six-run outing in Fenway that would result in a demotion.
• Joey Votto’s .256 average would normalize. He has hit.310 since the calendar page last turned.

In short, I was very, very lucky.

So, let’s tempt fate and do the same thing again. With stats a bit more stable now, there are fewer players likely to make sharp moves. I make no claims about any of these not-so-bold projections for June:

Erick Aybar is struggling to get his batting average over the Mendoza Line, but there may be some better days ahead. His support metrics are nearly identical to last year, when he batted about 50 points higher, with the exception of an increase in soft contact. The Padres’ June schedule may help turn things around. He’ll be facing weak pitching staffs at home – Colorado, Kansas City, Cincinnati – and playing in some better hitter parks on the road, in Arizona and Milwaukee.

Zack Cozart has maintained his lofty .340-plus batting average for far longer than anyone would have expected. He started fast in 2016 as well – hitting .361 in April, but he tanked quickly, hitting .247 in May and .210 in June. How long can he keep it up this year? Probably not much longer.

Aside from the fact that his current .397 BABIP is unsustainable, his Reds have a tough schedule this month. After hosting the Braves this weekend, every other game this month is either against a tough competitor or in a pitchers’ park. They have 12 games against the Cardinals, Dodgers and Nationals, and six in San Diego and Tampa. Cozart’s average should sink below .300 by month’s end.

Up until one week ago, Miguel Sano was still hitting .300. Some analysts were projecting that he could maintain that lofty level thanks to his huge 53% hard hit contact rate (strikeouts and BABIP be damned!), but nobody in history has ever hit .300 with a 55% contact rate.

In fact, there have only been five players in history who have gone an entire season with a contact rate under 60% (minimum 400 plate appearances). Note their batting averages:

Player             Team   Year    PA    Contact%  Average
Jack Cust          OAK    2008    598     59%     .231
Adam Dunn          CHW    2012    649     59%     .204
Jack Cust          OAK    2007    507     58%     .256
Chris Carter       HOU    2013    585     58%     .223
Mark Reynolds      ARI    2010    596     58%     .198

Sano has gone 2 for 20 in the past week, which might look like the beginning of the end, but the Twins’ June schedule could keep his BA afloat a little while longer. A West Coast road trip has him facing the weak and hobbled pitching in Anaheim, Seattle and San Francisco; six games against the Indians seem like the only real competition this month. But if you’re buying into the rest of the season, his current BA has only one direction it can go.

In 10 starts this year, Trevor Bauer (pictured) has pitched into the seventh inning only twice and has allowed fewer than three runs only twice. It would seem that his 6.00 ERA is well-deserved. But his support metrics portend better, a 60 percent strand rate being largely responsible for his elevated ERA. In fact, his 3.42 xFIP is the best of his career.

Cleveland’s June schedule should help. Last night’s start against the A’s – 7 innings, 14 strikeouts – may be a first hint of what’s to come, even if it didn’t reduce his ERA all that much. If the Tribe’s current rotation holds, he’ll start the last game against Kansas City and miss having to pitch in Coors. Then he’ll get the White Sox, which should give him three easier opponents in a row. That might be enough to right the ship.

It’s tough to peg Jeff Samardzija’s career. His ERAs have been all over the board, fluctuating by a run or more every year since 2014. But his skills generally supported whatever level his ERA indicated, until this year. Currently, his 4.63 ERA masks a 2.90 xFIP.

Ordinarily, we’d project some ERA improvement, but his upcoming opponents won’t likely cooperate. After last night’s 4 inning, 3 earned run start against the Nationals, he’ll be facing the resurgent Brewers and Twins, then will probably have to pitch in Colorado. It’s not the formula for a turnaround, at least not yet.

Andrew Cashner’s 2.92 ERA seems to be surviving on a wing and a prayer. With just 23 strikeouts against 27 walks in 52 innings, it’s not surprising that his 5.48 xFIP is the highest of his career and likely more representative of his true skill level.

It’s also not surprising that six of his nine starts have been against sub-.500 teams. His ERA against the others – 5.40. Coming up in his June rotation turns will be starts against Houston, Washington, Houston, Toronto and the Yankees. Odds are his ERA won’t survive the month.