PLAYER PREMONITION #170417
Every so often, something about a player will rise to my consciousness. A hidden indicator. A revelation that wakes me up at night. I’ll call these periodic posts Player Premonitions.
I am always intrigued by players who go undrafted in 15-team mixed leagues with 6-man reserves, and then draw hefty FAAB interest in the middle of April. I can understand it with major role changes, like a pitcher moving into the closer’s role. But for ordinary everyday regulars, one would think we picked the pool pretty clean on draft day.
But here we are just two weeks into the season and Chicago White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia is batting .465 with a pair of home runs and 10 RBI. He went undrafted in the Tout Wars-Mixed league, and even slipped past the FAAB bidders after his 8-for-16 opening week. Owners likely thought he was not for real then, but his 12-for-27 followup week could not be ignored.
However, after five seasons in the majors, the last two as a nondescript regular, what has changed? Just two weeks ago, he was tossed off as a player with nothing more than 10-15 HR, .250 potential. He was the epitome of a “replacement player” in a 15-team mixer.
Ordinarily, I’d ignore him, but a look back at some history has me intrigued. Garcia was rated as a “9E” player by the Minor League Baseball Analyst, back in 2012. That translates to an elite player in terms of upside potential but only a 10 percent probability of reaching that level. A year later, those odds were increased to 20 percent.
Still, his potential was viewed as “elite,” and the aura of “skills ownership” forces us to at least take another look. Players all follow their own path to success or failure; some hit the ground running, others take years. Garcia was described as a “toolsy prospect. Though best known for his power, he has a strong tool-set across the board: good bat speed, good defender, good speed and base running instincts, and strong arm from the outfield. He needs to improve his plate discipline and pitch recognition, though he has recently started to decrease his strikeout totals. Garcia makes solid contact at the plate and is not afraid to go with the pitch and drive it to the opposite field. Still young enough that power will improve over time.” At age 26, now was a good time.
For me, it was enough to consider a moderate bid from the $922 remaining in my budget. My outfield is pretty set and his acquisition would force me to reserve or cut one of Ben Revere, Nori Aoki, Michael Conforto, or one of my minor leaguers. At first, I thought “mid-50s” but then settled on $45.
He went for $188. Oddly, the only losing bids were $127, $45 and $4. Weird market.
Would you drop any of these 3 to pick-up Garcia?
Curtis Granderson
David Peralta
Jarrod Dyson-would like to keep for SB’s
The rest of my outfield looks like this.
Hunter Pence
Kris Davis
Dexter Fowler
Yasmany Tomas
Jackie Bradley
Aaron Judge
We start 5 OF and have 7 bench positions, and 5 DL slots
As you can see I already have too many outfielders once Bradley comes off the DL but would Garcia be better then who I have.
I’m also a Sox fan so I know his ups and downs, as we always heard about his potential. Is this his breakout year at age 26?
Short answer is “no.” Garcia COULD be better but since there is no track record and we’re just speculating, it’s not a percentage play you’d want to follow with your roster.
Have you drank the Trey Mancini Kool-Aid since last year? Or is he still on your list of eyewash candidates?
I agree, thanks Ron.
Saw Garcia vs Yanks last night. Reportedly after losing 18 pounds (on chicken and fish diet) he and now feels “more alive.” I was convinced after he beat the throw to first on routine grounder to short. I added to my teams where he was still available.
Mancini seems to be the type of player who puts up good numbers in bunches until opposing pitchers uncover his flaws. He not as good of an athlete as others so his ceiling is lower.
With Marte suspended now for 80 games, I put in a bid for Garcia and would drop Marte. I also put in a bid for Max Kepler who someone just dropped and would drop
Alex Gordon. My other OF are, Betts, Tomas, Dickerson, and Parra and I have Dahl on DL. Sound like something you might do?
Thanks
Yes, I might.
After week one, Thames was doing well but Brandon Belt was a free agent as someone dropped him for Greg Bird the week before. Seeing a chance for a bit of an upgrade I picked up Belt for $36 of FAAB and dropped Eric Thames. After a week of homeruns, I put in a bid to get Thames back, but another team got him for $225. I’m that guy, the one that dropped the player who Fangraphs now describes as hitting like Babe Ruth. I feel like the Ubaldo Jimenez of Fantasy Baseball. I guess there’s always next year.
That’s why I never look at the stats until May 1.
Would you drop Randall Grichuk to sign Avisail Garcia; I am thinking that Grichuk has more upside but I am in a weekly matchup league that deducts points for strikeouts so I am not sure. Using your old company’s database as relates to points earned in my league setup Grichuk earns more points over the year than Garcia
Current projections systems are not going to pick up on the speculative nature of these Player Premonitions, so the Grichuks of the world will always be rated higher. You have to decide whether your team is in position to take a chance on such a speculation.
We play Ultra, so we have 23 man auction rosters and 17 round reserve draft, yet Garcia still slipped through the cracks. Our first week of FAAB bidding is May 1, so I will have some more time to track his progress and get a better feel for his staying power. This also means the bidding for Garcia could be fierce if he does look like the real deal.
NL only standard 5×5, 2 catcher, ROTO league. Which, if any of these catchers would you keep and/or play? Pina, Cervelli, Hedges, Mesaraco? Thanks!