2022 Snake Draft Strategy

(Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire)

There are lots of ways to ways to strategize snake drafts, and just as many ways to put BABS to good use. Perhaps the best edge to employ this year is to incorporate some of the insights from these risk analysis articles, which all are based in snake drafting:
Safest foundation players in 2022
Early risk exposure of each seed in 2022
A quantitative look at 2022 risk
Extreme rosters on the risk scale

Xtreme Risk: In the recent LABR experts league mixed draft, Mike Podhorzer assembled the ultimate high-risk team. Read his analysis here. Using the BABS risk cost calculation, where a $30 cost across a 23-man roster is optimal and $30-$40 is acceptable, Mike’s roster comes in at $54.75! It will be fun to watch this ultimate high-risk, high reward team.

Rd Pick Player RISK
1.9 9 Ronald Acuna Jr. OF $5.00
2.7 22 Jacob deGrom P $5.25
3.9 39 Salvador Perez C $3.25
4.7 52 Adalberto Mondesi 3B $5.00
5.9 69 Byron Buxton OF $3.25
6.7 82 Brandon Lowe 2B $-
7.9 99 Christian Yelich OF $1.00
8.7 112 Justin Verlander P $3.25
9.9 129 Willson Contreras C $1.00
10.7 142 Blake Treinen P $0.25
11.9 159 Clayton Kershaw P $3.00
12.7 172 Anthony Rizzo 1B $-
13.9 189 Dylan Floro P $0.25
14.7 202 Luis Severino P $3.00
15.9 219 Noah Syndergaard P $3.00
16.7 232 Frank Schwindel 1B $2.25
17.9 249 Carlos Carrasco P $3.00
18.7 262 Wil Myers OF $-
19.9 279 Austin Hays OF $4.00
20.7 292 Luke Voit 1B $3.00
21.9 309 Lou Trivino P $-
22.7 322 Andres Gimenez SS $2.00
23.9 339 Rowan Wick P $4.00

Looking at the current talent pool and ADP rankings, here are a few more thoughts and suggestions for 2022.

Pocket aces: This was a popular strategy the past two years, when you might have found Shane Bieber and Trevor Bauer being drafted at the Round 1/2 turn. That didn’t work out too well in 2021, and given that seven of the 11 pitchers drafted in the first two rounds were busts, we’re hearing a little less talk of pocket aces this year.

Still, it can work. The current NFBC ADPs offer up the possibility of a Max Scherzer (ER,K+) – Walker Buehler (ER,KK) pairing at the first turn. Or a top seed might have a Zack Wheeler (ER,k) – Jacob deGrom (E+,K+) pairing drop to him at Round 2/3. That, combined with Trea Turner or Fernando Tatis as the first pick, makes for a potentially powerful opening trio.

BABS offers another option for that 2/3 turn. Given Wheeler’s lesser skills profile and deGrom’s elevated risk, Robbie Ray (e,K+) and Aaron Nola (ER,KK) could be interesting alternatives. Nola, at ADP 40, is a strong positive regression candidate. Ray, at ADP 48, provides a higher strikeout upside and moves to a better home venue. And both have a much lower risk cost. Their 40/48 ADPs would seem like a “reach” over picks 30/31, but ADPs are historically bad at measuring worth, so 10 picks is not even remotely statistically significant.

This thought exercise is applicable at any stage of the draft. If you’re in Round 7 and looking at players going at picks just outside the Top 100, toss out a wider net. BABS will show you where the values are; they might be at ADPs in Round 8, or 9, or 15.

Innings: Accumulating playing time is everything in this game, but there are several top-ranked starters who are projected for innings totals far lower than we would want as staff anchors. BABS tells us that these Top 60 pitchers could be a higher risk to return the innings you need to provide a foundation for your team ERA. All are projected for fewer than 180 IP at present. Ranked by ADP:

  1. Corbin Burnes (E+,K+) – Risk $0
  2. Max Scherzer (ER,K+) – Risk $3.75
  3. Jacob deGrom (E+,K+) – Risk $5.25
  4. Robbie Ray (e,K+) – Risk $0.50
  5. Chris Sale (ER,K+) – Risk $5.00 (pictured)
  6. Freddy Peralta (e,KK) – Risk $0.25
  7. Logan Webb (ER,k) – Risk $4.25

Yes, Robbie Ray is both a recommendation and a caution. Nobody said this game was easy.

Preparation: There is no one size fits all strategy. With so many different ways to attack the draft, it helps to know your draft slot and the types of players who might fall to you at each seed. We always recommend mock drafting for this purpose.

Mock drafting will help you learn the talent pool, but that is only half the challenge. There is also the challenge of learning optimal roster construction. A good way to do this is to freeze the ADPs and engage in some mock draft solitaire. This provides practice in trying multiple strategies in a controlled environment.