Extreme rosters on the risk scale

If an average roster in a 15-team league will amass $47.50 in risk cost, is it even reasonable to expect to keep your budget to $30? Yes, and even lower.

When we looked at the best seeds to draft from, two of the seeds — 3 and 9 — provided us with the potential to roster a core of four solid players who had minimal risk cost. From there, it would just be a matter of surrounding that core with similarly reliable players from each draft round.

Without doing too much research, I quickly assembled two teams by creating a roster with the least risky players from each ADP round. Admittedly, I did not look at the asset grades — I was just drafting for risk — so these might not be the most competitive teams. That’s fine — we don’t want to draft risk-free teams anyway. We have to embrace some risk in order to grab potential upside. Still, it’s amazing what is possible:

Let’s start with the 9th seed, drafting Bryce Harper first.

POS	Pick-PLAYER	Risk$
CA	14-GARVER	3.00
CA	17-S.MURPHY	1.00
1B	8-MOUNTCASTLE	1.00
3B	16-CANDELARIO	0.00
CI	12-RIZZO	0.00
2B	6-B.LOWE	0.00
SS	3-STORY	0.00
MI	10-C.TAYLOR	0.00
OF	1-HARPER	0.25
OF	5-CASTELLANOS	0.00
OF	8-MEADOWS	1.00
OF	19-W.MYERS	0.00
OF	20-J.RODRIGUEZ	2.00
UT	22-FLETCHER	2.00
SP	2-WHEELER	0.00
SP	4-F.PERALTA	0.25
SP	11-STROMAN	1.50
SP	13-SKUBAL	1.00
SP	15-J.MONTGOMERY	0.00
SP	21-JAVIER	1.00
RP	7-W.SMITH	1.00
RP	18-BARNES	1.00
RP	23-SEWALD	0.00

This roster comes in at just $16.00 in risk cost. But we can do even better. From Seed 3, starting with Juan Soto:

POS	Pick-PLAYER	Risk$
CA	8-GRANDAL	3.00
CA	18-NARVAEZ	0.00
1B	4-ALONSO	0.00
3B	12-MCMAHON	0.00
CI	10-J.BELL	0.00
2B	2-SEMIEN	0.25
SS	5-BAEZ	0.50
MI	20-KINER-FALEFA	1.00
OF	1-SOTO	0.00
OF	7-REYNOLDS	0.00
OF	15-LAUREANO	0.00
OF	17-BRANTLEY	1.00
OF	21-MCNEIL	1.00
UT	23-MCCUTCHEN	1.00
SP	6-MUSGROVE	1.00
SP	9-MAHLE	0.00
SP	11-MANAEA	0.00
SP	14-DECLAFANI	1.00
SP	16-G.MARQUEZ	0.00
SP	19-J.GRAY	1.25
RP	3-HENDRIKS	0.00
RP	13-S.BARLOW	0.25
RP	22-D.WILLIAMS	2.00

A little light on the pitching, given that I went with the market and took a closer in the 3rd round, but interesting nonetheless. This roster comes in at just $13.25 in risk cost. So, it is possible to draft an extremely “safe” roster. Not necessarily advisable, but possible.

Then, there is the other end of the extreme scale. We can also specifically target high risk players and see what that buys us. Let’s start from the top seed, but instead of opening with Trea Turner, let’s start with Fernando Tatis, Jr. and accumulate as many risky players as possible from there.

POS	Pick-PLAYER	Risk$
CA	3-S.PEREZ	3.25
CA	16-KIRK	5.00
1B	22-TELLEZ	4.00
3B	10-K.HAYES	4.00
CI	13-CHAPMAN	6.00
2B	11-B.RODGERS	4.25
SS	1-TATIS	3.00
MI	21-ARRAEZ	5.00
OF	6-K.MARTE	3.25
OF	7-BELLINGER	3.00
OF	12-KIRILLOFF	5.00
OF	14-A.HAYS	4.00
OF	20-K.LEWIS	8.00
UT	2-Y.ALVAREZ	7.00
SP	4-WEBB	7.25
SP	5-FLAHERTY	3.00
SP	9-RODON	3.25
SP	17-WHITLOCK	2.25
SP	18-CIVALE	5.00
SP	19-JS.GRAY	5.00
RP	8-ROMANO	2.25
RP	15-KNEBEL	3.50
RP	23-WICK	4.00

You might consider this an excellent roster — perhaps even better than any of the others above — but you’ve amassed an amazing $100.25 in risk cost. Many drafters won’t think twice about considering the downside potential of such roster construction and then wonder why it implodes; that’s why we have BABS here for perspective.

But the truth is that either extreme is not optimal. You have to find a balance between safer players and some educated risks. The question is, when do you venture into each pool? For my draft dollar, I have to play it conservative in the first 4-6 rounds and then start opening up the gates.