BABS Bruises and Brawn at the Break

[MEMBERS ONLY] Here’s a stat to blow your socks off… As of the All Star Break, 56 percent of the pre-season Top 300 players have already lost time to the IL or have been demoted. Injured players alone make up 51 percent of that total. The single season record for attrition (in the 12 years we’ve kept records) was the 60 percent of players who lost time during the entirety of 2018.

Ten of the 15 first-rounders have lost time. That includes Trevor Bauer, whose departure will be likely be long-term, if not permanent. The only first-rounders who have earned back their draft round so far are Ronald Acuna, Fernando Tatis, Jr., Jacob deGrom, Trea Turner and Gerrit Cole. And of course, with Acuna’s season-ending injury, he will eventually slide off this list by the end of the season.

BABS’ mid-season update is online now. As always, even half a season is too small a sample size to fully trust the ratings. So approach this data with caution.

To demonstrate how volatile the data is, let’s take a look at a few things that have changed since the previous update six weeks ago.

Adolis Garcia is one of 2021’s biggest surprises and his (P+,SB,AV) rating in May placed him among the top four batters overall. However, even though he’s averaged about a HR a week in the time since, plus a pair of SBs — and podcasters continue to extol his achievements — his rating has dropped to (P+,s).

Although it doesn’t outwardly seem that much has changed, Jazz Chisolm has dropped from (P+,S+) to (PW,SB) since Memorial Day. Akil Baddoo has doubled his plate appearances since May and tacked on eight SBs to the five he had back then, but has seen his rating drop from (P+,S+) to (p,SB).  And BABS is finally starting to come on board with Vlad Guerrero, Jr. after not recognizing his power potential during the pre-season. His May rating was (p,A+); now it is (PW,A+). This was one of her bigger misses this spring.

As for Acuna owners who are lamenting their lot, there is another player with an identical (P+,s,AV) rating. It may be tough to pry Yordan Alvarez away from his current owner, but just know that the underlying skills have been comparable. And if you can afford to sacrifice a bit of BA, Franmil Reyes (P+,s,a) is pretty close too.

On the pitching side, May’s update had nine pitchers atop the rankings with identical (E+,K+) ratings, and another seven at (E+,KK). Those counts are now down to six and four, respectively, as gravity takes hold. Dropping from the top group are Trevor Bauer and Freddie Peralta (ER,K+) and Joe Musgrove (ER,KK). Gone from the (E+,KK) list are Yu Darvish and Lance Lynn (ER,KK), and Danny Duffy (ER,k). There were no risers into those groups.

Six frontline closers merited the (E+,K+) rating on Memorial Day. Five are left, with Alex Reyes (ER,K+) and the suddenly struggling Aroldis Chapmen (e,K+) dropping out, and Kenley Jansen rising into the elite asset group.

Click here to access the database. Make sure the year is set to 2021 and the Report Type is set to In-Season Rankings (batter or pitcher). There are two relevant sorts you can choose now — alpha and BABS.