2021 Snake Draft Strategy

(Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)

by Pat Cloghessy

There is no one size fits all strategy. With so many different ways to attack the draft, it helps to know your draft slot, and first things first…Practice. Then do it again. 

So I can’t regale you with the perfect plan. That, unfortunately, is up to you. What I can do, is take you behind the curtain of one BABSian’s attempt at roster construction. There are tried-and-true methods and zigs and zags. Risks and reaches and steals. Read on for the full report, including the attempt to find an island in the sun of the cloudy pitching landscape.

Here is the draft board for The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI): League 28. As of this writing, the draft is through 28 of 30 rounds. Plenty of data to mine.

For those unfamiliar with the setup: This is a slow draft run through the NFBC, with 29 leagues of 15 teams all competing for the right to be crowned grand champion. 

Of course, BABS helped navigate. Here is the roster grid, drafting out of the 4th slot: 

BATTERS Round Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Av Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg
Murphy,Sean 12 C OAK M p a * INJ EX
Trevino,Jose 28 C TEX M – EX
Voit,Luke 5 1B NYY F PW a inj-
Taylor,Chris 14 2B LAD F p s
Bell,Josh 11 CI WAS F p a * Nw
McNeil,Jeff 6 3B NYM F A+ Rg-
Crawford,J.P. 21 SS SEA F s -P e
Dubon,Mauricio 18 MI SFG F s a EX Rg-
Betts,Mookie 1 OF LAD F PW SB AV *
Marte,Starling 3 OF MIA F SB AV
Judge,Aaron 4 OF NYY F P+ a * INJ
Soler,Jorge 9 OF KCR F P+ *
Winker,Jesse 15 OF CIN F p AV *
Pederson,Joc 19 UT CHC F PW Rg+ Nw
Targets   12 11 5 10 1 3 4
15 Mixed 13 14 7 14 0 4 4
PITCHERS Pos Tm PT Er K Sv Pk Rg Er Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg
Castillo,Luis 2 SP CIN M ER KK
Musgrove,Joe 8 SP SDP M e KK Nw
Sanchez,Sixto 10 SP MIA M e k EX
Ohtani,Shohei 13 SP LAA P e KK INJ EX Rg-
Heaney,Andrew 16 SP LAA M KK
German,Domingo 20 SP NYY P KK -E e
Neris,Hector 22 rp PHI e K+ sv-
Karinchak,James 7 rp CLE E+ K+ SV EX
Garrett,Amir 17 rp CIN ER K+ sv- Rg-
Targets    6/3 7 9 3 1 1 4
15 Mixed  7/2 6 6 2 0 2 2
Hilliard,Sam 23 O COL F P+ s -A EX
Belt,Brandon 25 1 SFG F PW a * INJ Rg-
Brosseau,Michael 27 1 TBR M PW EX Rg-
Garcia,Deivi 30 SP NYY M KK -E EX
Kopech,Michael 26 SP CWS P e KK INJ EX
Peralta,Freddy 24 rp MLW P e K+ e
Pagan,Emilio 29 rp SDP e KK
Ohtani,Shohei D LAA M p a Rg+ e

The first thing that jumps out on the offensive side is playing time. Targeting full-timers was an essential tenet of the overarching strategy. There are certainly deficiencies with this squad. Maybe some of those can be mitigated, to some extent, by sheer volume.  

This was an extremely challenging room with excellent players. So the fact that the roster didn’t gain (aside from catcher) anything less than an (F) in playing time until the 16th offensive player was selected (Brosseau in the 27th), is a minor miracle. 

Reaching the BABS batting asset targets can be a tall order, especially in a 15-teamer. In this draft, the benchmarks wound up being more aspirational than attainable. That said, power and batting effectiveness look fairly strong, particularly in light of the dearth of nicks on the skill liability side. J.P. Crawford is the lone offender there (-P). If spring training is any indication, Crawford could be hitting atop the Mariners lineup, at least against RHP. Score one for volume?

Staying under the liability targets seemed easier, as there are just three injury demerits in total. This was an important part of the process, since playing time projections are directly correlated with injury risk. Each round, my bag of selectable players was filled with injury-free options first. This may have occasionally forced higher skills out, but assets can’t play from the IL. Calculated bets in rounds 4 / 5 (Judge/Voit) could come back to haunt. That’s why it was important to fill the bench with as much pop as possible.

Speed. That fickle beast. There were some targeted players that I let slip in hopes they would return to me on the comeback. (Spoiler: they didn’t.) Garret Hampson (S+) and Raimel Tapia (SB,AV) were shelved in favor of Jesse Winker in the 15th. At that point, Winker had bubbled to the top of the FISH list, screaming value. He was simply the best (most BABSian) player available. That said, this roster has cobbled together enough speed to potentially finish more towards the middle than the bottom of the category. This without sacrificing too much in other areas. Again, just Crawford emerges as a one trick pony. 

The outfield seems to be the strength of this offense, with four out of five presenting with two or more assets. The outlier is Jorge Soler, who brings one elite asset (P+) and zero liabilities. Sam Hilliard (P+,s) is listed on the bench here, but is projected for full-time plate appearances in a favorite hitters paradise. It won’t take much convincing to slot him somewhere in the starting lineup. 

For maximum flexibility, it is always nice to roster players who are eligible at multiple positions. This roster counts four batters who fit the bill: Chris Taylor (2B,SS,OF), Jeff McNeil (2B,3B,OF), Mauricio Dubon (2B,SS,OF) and Mike Brosseau (1B,2B,3B). Each position on the roster is covered 3x over, save third base and catcher. Maybe it’s not the sexiest group of names, but each one has playable assets. The dog days could be less stressful with this foursome in tow. 

Since much of the early draft capital was spent on hitting (four out of the first five picks), pitching necessarily came later. How’d we do? Well, we (me and BABS) escaped with a highly skilled staff, though maybe short on the playing-time side. Is it really though? There has been much public discussion already about how teams will handle pitchers’ workloads this season. In short: it appears there will be reductions. From Part 2 of the BABS Game Plan, there’s also this:

“Full-time” playing projections are based on historical markers that were interrupted by The Great Interruption. What will the landscape look like in September? Will some of the elite full-timers have had their workload reduced throughout the season in order to save them for a playoff push? Will the mid-timers’ innings totals be, on average, closer to the full-time guys? It’s possible that innings-pitched totals will huddle closer to the mean than they have in the past. Add in the perpetual shift away from “quality starts” and third times through the order, and the picture is even blurrier. 

Uncertainty can breed many different things. Anxiety and panic, for example. But maybe most importantly: opportunity. This pitching staff is an outgrowth of the idea that there could be a market inefficiency in the unknown of 2021. There are a finite number of full-timers with rosterable skills. And they leave the draft very quickly. 

So this is a bit of a “hunch” pitching room. We stacked some skilled mid-timers in rounds 2, 8, 10 and 16. Mixed in a high upside, risky part-timer in round 13 (Ohtani), and probable 5th starter in NY, Domingo German. Not earth-shattering, but at a certain stage of the draft, targeting “good innings” became paramount. I’d prefer 100-120 skilled innings as opposed to 150 middling or below average innings. Ideally, this results in heavy K numbers and decent to good rate stats. As opposed to extra wins with inflated ERA/WHIP numbers.

Which leads to the Freddy Peralta (e,K+ – pictured) and Michael Kopech (e,KK) selections. These two are slated to be swing guys on their respective staffs. Sure, there are risks, but in rounds 24 and 26, why not? There is virtually zero cost prohibition to their upside. They can steal wins in two different ways: filling innings on the back of an opener, or just by the nature of throwing more innings than a typical bullpen arm. All the while (hopefully) showcasing their strikeout upside. There will be others like them, it just seems these two have clearer roles (and monstrous skills!) at this early stage of the season.

The perennially volatile class of pitchers is the closer. The unpredictable nature of the position makes it difficult for this drafter to spend big there. Karinchak (E+,K+,SV) has the Josh Hader skillset, and was the fifth closer off the board. The last of the (IMO) elite tier. Garrett and Neris are likely in committees. They are also the most asset-laden options in each respective pen. Emilio Pagan is an end-game dart throw with upside. Let the chips fall where they may. Then, there’s always FAAB. 

At no point in this draft did I tabulate projected stats for this team. It is BABS: au naturale. The FISH list was utilized in a major way through about round 20. After that, the variance between ADP and actual selections was so wide that I went with the Master Draft Spreadsheet. As always, BABS provided plenty of value picks. It worked. 

Oh, and one more thing… the above roster is projected to finish in second place. So, there’s that.