2023 Auction Strategy

by Doug Gruber

Auctions are the only format where you can bid on any player, having access to the entire player pool. This plays to BABS’ strength, serving players with the best combination of skills and risk costs who are undervalued at the auction table.

In this article we will take a step-by-step approach to an auction, from gathering our tools, analyzing the player pool, setting our budget for players and risks, identifying our player targets, and then completing our desired auction roster.

TOOLS

First, we need to collect our tools. Here is what we need:

  1. The Positional Overview articles for Batters and Pitchers, by Curt Brooks, found in Game Plan Part 1.
  2. The BABS Master Spreadsheet (Excel version).
  3. A blank roster worksheet, including the asset targets and risk budget.
  4. Other recent BABS articles…such as the BABS tutorial, positional analyses, asset group analyses and strategy pieces.

THE PLAYER POOL AND OUR BUDGETS

For hitters, our goal is to roster at least 13 of 14 positions with full-time (FT) players while amassing a minimum of 35 assets…14 power, 7 speed and 14 batting effectiveness. A very aggressive target indeed, but we are in it to win it!  That’s an average of 2 1/2 assets for each of our 14 batters.

To accomplish this, we must prioritize the FT batters holding two or more skills. For 2023, there are only 101 such hitters…simple math says that’s less than seven per team. We crave twice that many, with the greatest importance placed on those triple-asset bats.

For the pitchers, our target is to roster at least two FT and four mid-time (MT) starting pitchers, while accumulating a minimum of 12 Er plus K assets. To do so we must plan for the declining number of FT starters. BABS shows only 16 starting pitchers projected for 180+ innings who possess assets in both pitching effectiveness and strikeouts. We want two or more! For mid-timers, we find another 61 with dual Er/K assets. That’s 77 in total, and while not as scarce as the hitters, we still need more than our fair share from the pitcher pool.

Regarding closers, BABS lists only five double-asset arms projected to save more than 30 saves (SV), as the trend continues toward fewer solo acts for the 9th inning role. Another 27 are shown as (sv-), between 10-29 saves, who own dual skills. Our target is to obtain at least two pitchers with saves assets, preferably at least one of the five with an SV classification.

Turning to the liabilities, we will target the “Exceptional” level for our Risk Cost budget, which is $30 or under to deliberately minimize our risk exposure. As a reminder, the risk cost not only includes the injury and experience risks but also the skills liabilities such as (|-P) or (|-E), which BABS has preached could do enormous damage to our categories. BABS includes the Risk cost for each player on the far right of the Master Spreadsheet.

IDENTIFYING OUR PLAYER TARGETS

With the player pool analyzed and our overall mission outlined, let us begin to identify our specific targets.

Starting with the hitters, with yet another reminder that we need more than two assets per player, it is logical to start with hitters who own three or more. Not many bargains at the very top, until we notice a pair of 2Bmen in Jazz Chisholm and Jose Altuve. We will choose Altuve as he counts as four towards our asset total while carrying zero risk cost! BABS also provides us with three triple-asset shortstops who are similarly priced in Corey Seager, Wander Franco and Dansby Swanson. Seager is our selection, as he is slightly higher rated and is liability free.

For speed, Arizona teammates Corbin Carroll and Jake McCarthy share the (S+,a) group but we can save a few dollars with McCarthy. And then the (p,SB,a) group contains some attractive names, though Gunnar Henderson is about half the price of his classmates, albeit with more risk. The plan is coming together… four players, 13 assets, little risk, AAVs in the $10-25 range.

Continue this process through the remaining dual-asset classes. This is where the asset group articles are particularly helpful. For significant power and average, Nick Castellanos and Kris Bryant are a huge discount versus classmates Manny Machado and Pete Alonso. In (SB,a), why pay $15 or more for Cedric Mullins or Tommy Edman when Christian Yelich or Vaughn Grissom are comparable players at a nice savings.  And so on…

Moving to pitchers, the top-rated arms include Corbin Burnes and Shohei Ohtani, but these studs will run you more than $30 each. Jake deGrom, Max Scherzer and Spencer Strider hold elevated risk costs along with their hefty price tags, not what we prefer for our aces. Instead, we target more reliable starters from either the (ER,K+) or the (ER,KK) groups, a slight reduction in assets but pitchers who still possess significant skills. For example, Kevin Gausman and Aaron Nola bring full-time innings and a $5-10 discount. Others come even cheaper, such as Yu Darvish. BABS says any of these could become our SP1 and SP2 staff anchors.

Continue to comb through the other favorably rated pitcher groups, prioritizing dual-asset starters with price discounts and low risk costs. Such as Pablo Lopez in the (ER,KK) group or Patrick Sandoval (e,KK).

For the relief pitchers, in the highest skilled class sits Ryan Pressly (E+,K+,SV) who comes with a markdown versus group mates Edwin Diaz and Emmanuel Clase. Further down, BABS provides several good candidates in (e,K+,sv-) who can be had for a dollar or two to round out your staff.

Important note…to have sufficient money to acquire our targets, we adjusted upward the AAVs shown on the Master Spreadsheet. For any player $30 and above, we budgeted an additional $3 above the AAV; for $15-$29 players we tacked on $2; and, for all other players, we added at least $1. Then we altered any price points that still looked low compared to the market.

SAMPLE AUCTION ROSTER (Excel file)

It’s time to pull together our total auction plan, using the blank BABS worksheet. Here is an example. It includes some of the mentioned names such as Altuve, Seager and Henderson, with Nola and Gausman to anchor our staff. Our example is a “spread the risk” team, as our most expensive targets are two players at $25 and another ten costing between $10-24. Note that the budget R$ amounts include the juiced up AAVs discussed above.

This sample team accumulates 58 total assets, well surpassing the 49 minimum asset targets. Total spending is reasonably balanced between hitting ($163/63%) and pitching ($94/37%), and leaves $3 for wiggle room, knowing that the bidding will fluctuate.

Another vital aspect of this roster is that we remained below our Exceptional risk budget, totaling $26.00 versus a goal of $30.00 or below. We also included three multi-positional players as well as several who may be due for favorable regression this season.

Remember…this is just one example. You might have other players that you would rather own. Perhaps a “Stars and Scrubs” construction. Grab the BABS spreadsheet and build the roster that you want. And be sure to highlight alternatives because auctions hardly ever go as envisioned.

For the reserve rounds, treat it as an opportunity to stockpile extra BABS assets for roster flexibility and depth, and to address potential category deficits. This sample team exceeded the batting effectiveness and strikeout targets, so maybe lean towards the other categories in the end game. Or shoot for the moon since our risk budget has a great foundation with room to take more gambles.

It’s now show time, let the auction begin! As you do so, recall this advice from BABS: “There is only a 65% chance that a player projected for a certain dollar value will finish the season within plus-or-minus $5 of that projection…”  Don’t obsess over a dollar or two, go get your guys. Good luck!