2022 BABS Longshot Caucus

For many years when I was at BaseballHQ.com, we conducted what I called our  annual Longshot Caucus. This exercise was slightly different than the standard “bold projections” fare published elsewhere. These were not just random “Joey Gallo will hit 50 HR” proclamations. The writers were instructed to toss off the shackles of preconception and consider more “what-ifs” and contingencies. I encouraged them to look at the season as a blank slate.

This exercise often generates a handful of surprise hits. Last year’s Caucus speculated on a Corbin Burnes breakout, a Francisco Lindor disappointment, a 100-RBI season for Hunter Renfroe, and Alex Reyes assuming the closer role in St. Louis. Our illustrious writing quintet here at BABSBaseball.com now checks in on a bunch of educated speculations for 2022.

Willy Adames (PW,a) hits 30+ bombs, scores 100 runs. The power has been festering since 2019. Punt 2020 into the sun, and see what Adames did with the Brewers in 2021. Then salivate over what’s possible with ~300 plate appearances in the hitter’s haven that is American Family Field. 

Aristides Aquino (P+|-A) hits 40 HRs for Cincinnati. In 2019, Aquino swatted 48 long balls across three levels for the Reds, took the majors by storm but crashed just as quickly. He has since retooled his swing, and with the departures of Castellanos, Winker and Suarez, along with the universal DH, now has a path to return to a starting position.

Brandon Belt (P+,AV) finally hits 30 HRs. The skills have been there for awhile, and last year’s 29 HRs in only 325 AB sets the stage. Yes, injuries have been a constant issue and he’s 34, but who does he have to beat out for playing time? 35-year-old Darin Ruff? Underachieving utility infielder Wilmer Flores? Let’s give him his due, just this once.

Byron Buxton (PW,SB,AV) wins the Triple Crown. Pictured, he sheds the injury tag and goes on to log over 550 ABs and post a 46/122/.329 line. He wins the AL MVP to go along with his second Gold Glove.

Cleveland finishes with its worst record in the past 10 seasons. We already know that the Guardian offense is below par, but deep, talented rotations have been a staple in the past. Not in 2022.  The lone highly rated starter is Shane Bieber (ER,K+), but his heavy workload led to shoulder woes. Triston McKenzie (KK) has swing-and-miss ability, but had an ERA around 5.00. There is not a BABS asset to be found among the rest of the rotation hopefuls… Zach Plesac (-), Cal Quantrill (-), Aaron Civale (|-K), Eli Morgan (|-E) and Logan Allen (|-EK).

Bobby Dalbec (P+) hits 40 HR and staves off highly-touted Triston Casas at 1B for Boston. Note Dalbec’s 2021 1st half to 2nd half improvements: BA from .215 to .268; HR from 10 to 15; OBP from .264 to .335; contact rate from 60% to 66%; and OPS+ vs. RHP from 84 to 122.

Tanner Houck (ER,KK) wins 15 games with a 3.25 to lead the Red Sox staff. Seemingly assured to win a spot in the Boston rotation, Houck has perhaps the best underlying skills set, with the exception of Chris Sale, who is going to miss a bunch of time. By Opening Day, his ADP will likely be down into the high 100s, but BABS still puts him in the same group as Walker Buehler and Brandon Woodruff. His only liability is inexperience.

Jose Iglesias (A+|-P) wins the NL batting title. Iglesias does not hit the ball hard and he rarely accepts a walk, but he makes contact at an elite level. In the shortened 2020 season, he posted a .373 BA for the Orioles. Last season, he batted .356 in September as Boston’s starting 2Bman. Now he lands a full-time gig where he can spray the ball around the spacious Coors outfield.

Michael Kopech (e,K+) becomes the White Sox ace by year end. While Giolito, Lynn and Cease are set to begin the season as the Big Trio for the Chisox, BABS rates Kopech superior to all three. In 2021, he averaged over 97 MPH on his heater, which led to a K-rate of 34% and a 2.96 FIP. This year the White Sox fully remove the shackles, and Kopech delivers the type of season Chicago envisioned when they acquired him in the Chris Sale deal.

Nick Lodolo (E+,K+) wins NL Rookie of the Year. Cincy’s 6’6” lefty invites Chris Sale comparisons, commanding four effective pitches from his 3/4 arm slot. Lodolo’s innings will be limited at first, as he threw only 50 in 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A, but the Reds will unleash him in the second half.

Two of our analysts had the same target. Compare:

Gavin Lux (a) posts a .300/.400/.500 line with 20 HRs, living up to the former prospect hype. He takes over as the Dodgers full-time LF when A.J. Pollock goes down with (yet another) injury in early May, and makes his first All-Star appearance.

Gavin Lux (a) bats .280 with 15 HR over 450 plate appearances. He adds OF eligibility to his 2B/SS, making him a plug-and-play all throughout the summer. The paths to playing time are varied and numerous. Lux’ ADP in recent drafts has sunk to almost 300. He’s still just 24 years old, and ssshhhh… In 2021, Gavin’s walk and K rates crept toward the levels he displayed in the minors, when his bat made him one of the top prospects in the game.

Nick Madrigal (s,A+) wins a batting title, swipes 20 bags. The bat-to-ball skills have always been there. With the Cubs in rebuild mode, Nick gets all the playing time his body can handle. The DH slot could even keep him in the lineup more as he works his way back to full health.

Julio Rodriguez (s,a) posts a line of 94/28/101/25/.318, winning the A.L. Rookie of the Year Award. He leads the Mariners to the post-season for the first time since 2001. This causes folks on the West Coast to say, “Mike who?”

Dominic Smith (p,a) hits 30 HRs. Smith has a history of (PW) power ratings, since lowered after last year’s disappointment. But he was reportedly playing through shoulder, groin and wrist issues, so let’s discount 2021 a bit. Now with a clearer path to playing time, the 27-year-old should finally put it all together.

Once more, two of our analysts had the same target. Compare:

Kevin Smith (PW,s) wins AL Rookie of the Year with a near 20-20 season. In 355 AB at Triple-A Buffalo in 2021, Smith had a 21-18 season with a .285 BA and .367 OBP. Once again, Billy Beane proves the A’s know how to rebuild on the fly.

Kevin Smith (PW,s) wins AL Rookie of the Year, taking over as Oakland’s third baseman less than a month into the season and putting up 33 HRs and 22 SBs.

Perhaps Smith is not that much of a longshot.

The Tigers lead the Majors in stolen bases. Check out these BABS speed ratings in Detroit:

• Javier Baez (SB)
• Akil Baddoo (SB)
• Riley Greene (SB)
• Derek Hill (S+)
• Willi Castro (SB)
• Victor Reyes (SB)
• Daz Cameron (S+)

Last year, Robbie Grossman aggressively stole 20 bags despite below average BABS speed skill. Manager A.J. Hinch shows a willingness to run, and that was before the Motown arrival of El Mago and the rest of the kids.

Christian Yelich (p,s,a) and Cody Bellinger (p,s,a) will not combine to produce even the lesser of their MVP-chase 2019 lines. Their worsts from that bygone year made up a slash line of .305/.406/.629 with 44 HR and 15 SB. Neither former phenom will reach .300/.400/.600, hit 32+ HR, or steal 12+ bases.

It’s all about the good, the bad and the ugly… even as longshots.