2021 Auction Draft Strategy

(Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

by Doug Gruber

Auctions play to BABS strength, which is to identify players with the best combination of skills and liabilities who are undervalued. Here is a step-by-step approach for a 15-team mixed league, from assembling our tools, analyzing the player pool, identifying our player targets and budget, and then completing our auction roster.

TOOLS

Before we start our planning, we need to do gather our tools. Here is what we need:

  1. The accounting Overview of the BABS pool, by Pat Cloghessy, found in Game Plan Part 1.
  2. The BABS Master Spreadsheet (Excel version).
  3. A blank roster worksheet, including the asset and liability targets for a 15-team mixed league.
  4. A review of other recent BABS articles…positional analyses, asset group analyses, the BABS tutorial, strategy pieces, and the FISH list.

THE PLAYER POOL

Now let’s start with studying this year’s player pool.

For hitters, our goal is to roster at least 13 of our 14 hitting positions with full-time players while also acquiring a minimum of 35 assets…14 power, 7 speed and 14 batting effectiveness. That averages to 2.5 assets for each of our 14 hitter positions…an aggressive target, but we are here to win! We also need to stay at or below our major liability objectives.

In 2021, there are only 92 hitters who are listed in asset groups containing two or more skills and projected for full-time at bats. That averages about 6 per team (we want 13!). Of the 92, more than a third contain one or more major liabilities, further restricting the pool.

For the pitchers, it has been well reported about the dwindling number of full-time starters. The BABS database currently shows only 14 starting pitchers projected for 180+ innings who possess assets in both pitching effectiveness and strikeouts. For mid-timers, we find another 31 with dual assets. That is 45 double-asset pitchers in total. To make it worse, 21 of the 45 have marks on their major liability ledger.

Our target is to roster at least two full-time and four mid-time starting pitchers, while also accumulating a minimum of 12 assets, and not rostering too much risk. Like the hitters, we need more than our fair share from the pitcher pool.

For closers, BABS lists only seven double-asset arms rated SV (more than 30 saves), a result of fewer teams committing to a solo act for the 9th inning role. Another 23 are rated as sv- (between 10 and 29 saves) who own dual skills. Our target is to obtain at least two pitchers with saves assets, preferably at least one with an SV classification.

We also cannot ignore the liabilities, which BABS has preached will do enormous damage to our rosters if we own too much risk. Also, skills liabilities such as -P are deducted from our asset totals. It therefore goes without saying (but we will say it anyhow) that rostering multiple asset players who have a clean liability sheet must be our main concern for our auction plan.

IDENTIFYING PLAYER TARGETS AND SETTING THE BUDGET

With the player pool analyzed and our overall mission outlined, let’s look closer at the Master Spreadsheet and begin to identify our player targets.

Starting with the hitters, with a reminder that we need more than two assets per player, it is logical to start with hitters who own three or more. Not many bargains at the very top, but we start to see names like Christian Yelich and Trevor Story with triple assets and a price about $10 below the top names. In (p,s,AV), Ke’Bryan Hayes is in the same group as Jose Ramirez and Bo Bichette, but at a fraction of the cost. Ditto for Trey Mancini (p,s,a) and Will D. Smith (P+,a) versus the prices for their classmates.

Continue this process for the remainder of the hitter asset groups that contain two assets, marking potential targets. For power and average, Nick Castellanos or JD Martinez can be had at a discount versus fellow (PW,AV) mates Corey Seager and Anthony Rendon. For speed, BABS says Adalberto Mondesi and Garrett Hampson have the same skill sets. The market says you would have to pay an additional $20 for Mondesi. And so on through the other asset groups…

Moving to pitchers, the top three arms are Jacob deGrom, Shane Bieber (pictured) and Gerrit Cole. These studs likely cost more than $40 each. Max Scherzer and Tyler Glasnow have virtually equivalent skills but come with injury concerns, not what we prefer for our anchor arms. Instead, we could target more reliable starters from either the (e,K+) or the (ER,KK) groups, a slight reduction in assets but pitchers who still possess significant skills. For example, Lucas Giolito brings full-time innings and a $10 discount. Others come at half the price, such as Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, or Carlos Carrasco. BABS says any of these could become our SP1 and SP2 staff anchors. Comb through the other highly rated pitcher groups, prioritizing dual-asset starters with minimal risk.

For the relief pitchers, James Karinchak comes at a markdown versus his group mates such as Hader and Hendriks. And as you finish looking at the RP asset groups, don’t rule out elite arms who may not be the current closer. Last year Devin Williams provided profits to his owners without racking up saves, and this year BABS says a player like Trevor May has equivalent extreme skills and likely can be had for a buck.

Important note…to allow our budget plan to have enough money to acquire our targets, we assumed that the AAVs shown on the Master Spreadsheet might need to be adjusted upward. For any player $30 and above, we budgeted an additional $3 above the AAV; for $15-$29 players we added $2; and, for all other players, we added at least $1 to the AAV. We then altered a few price points that still looked off versus the current market.

SAMPLE AUCTION ROSTER

We can now use a blank BABS roster grid to put together our total auction plan. Here is an example including some of the mentioned names such as Story, JD Martinez, and Smith among our hitters, and Giolito and Carrasco to anchor our pitching staff. Note that the budget R$ amounts include the juiced up AAV discussed above.

R$ BATTERS Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Av Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg
13 Smith,Will D. C LAD M P+ a * inj- EX
16 Perez,Salvador C KCR F PW a – inj- Rg-
2 Votto,Joey 1B CIN F p a * Rg+ Ag
11 Hayes,Ke’Bryan 3B PIT F p s AV EX Rg-
3 Escobar,Eduardo CO ARZ F p a Rg+
12 Moustakas,Mike 2B CIN F PW a
35 Story,Trevor SS COL F PW SB a
2 Dubon,Mauricio MI SFG F s a EX Rg-
20 Judge,Aaron O NYY F P+ a * INJ
5 Hampson,Garrett O2 COL M S+ e
8 Mancini,Trey 1B BAL F p s a INJ
3 Peralta,David O ARZ F s AV Rg-
5 Winker,Jesse D CIN F p AV *
15 Martinez,J.D. D BOS F PW AV Rg+
150 Total   12 13 7 13 0 4 4
Target   15 Mixed 13 14 7 14 0 4 4
R$ PITCHERS Pos Tm PT Er K Sv Pk Rg Er Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg
32 Giolito,Lucas SP CWS F e K+
18 Carrasco,Carlos SP NYM M ER KK Nw
10 Corbin,Patrick SP WAS F e KK
11 Musgrove,Joe SP SDP M e KK Nw
6 Eflin,Zach SP PHI M e k
5 Eovaldi,Nathan SP BOS M e k Rg+ inj-
11 Hand,Brad rp WAS ER K+ SV Nw Rg-
13 Karinchak,James rp CLE E+ K+ SV EX
1 May,Trevor rp NYM E+ K+ Pk+ Rg+ Nw
107 Total    6/3 8 10 2 0 2 1
257 Target   15 Mixed  7/2 6 6 2 0 2 2

This plan allows us to accumulate 53 total assets, well surpassing the 47 minimum asset targets. The total spending is reasonably balanced between hitting ($150) and pitching ($107), and leaves $3 for wiggle room, since the bidding in your league might vary.

Essential, we have remained at or below the total liability targets for injury and experience. And for the reserve rounds, treat it as an opportunity to stockpile additional BABS assets to allow for more roster flexibility and depth, and to address category deficits.

Once completed, it is time to take the plan to your auction. As you do so, keep in mind BABS’ advice from the BABS Project 3.0, Book 1, Chapter 1: “There is only a 65% chance that a player projected for a certain dollar value will finish the season within plus-or-minus $5 of that projection…” With that guidance, there is no need to obsess over individual dollars or overbidding. This can be very liberating and should allow more freedom to go get your players!