Outfielders provide big skill, but lots of health risk

11 Comments

1. Brad Crenshaw on February 20, 2018 at 6:36 am

   Good Morning Ron–

   I notice that Yelich has been reconsidered in this spreadsheet, relative to his asset group in the overall spreadsheet released on the 19th. Here he is placed at s/AV, and grouped with Inciarte–which represents a considerable fall from grace. On the full spreadsheet he is considered s/A+, and grouped with Brantley and above Mookie Betts. Which of these two assessments is BABS most recent valuation?

   Brad

   
   
   
2. shandler on February 20, 2018 at 7:50 am

   I apologize for that. There is a time lapse between the updating of the spreadsheet and these articles that are written a little in advance. The Feb 19 spreadsheet is the more updated data.

   
   
   
3. Brad Crenshaw on February 20, 2018 at 9:02 am

   Thanks Ron—no apology needed, of course. I appreciate the detail of BABS assessments—and the Devil’s in those details. Every year she offers the most useful, sensible means of managing the information upon which we depend to make choices.

   
   
   
4. Chris Wilson on February 20, 2018 at 12:57 pm

   Further to the S+ discussion, Dyson’s signing w/ AZ seemingly puts him in that category w/ Buxton, Smith, Davis, et al. Only Pollock and Tomas (both with deserved INJ designations) in the way of quality OF playing time.

   
   
   
5. Andrew on February 20, 2018 at 3:19 pm

   Oh, what to do with Michael Conforto? He was a great BABS pick last year… well… until his shoulder popped out swinging for the fences. In fact, I have him at a very low price in my NL-only 10-team limited keeper league (keep three players for this year only). My last keeper decision is between Conforto ($2) and Contreras ($19). There’s profit in each, especially given the scarcity at catcher, but there is likely more profit in Conforto’s keeper price at current NL-only market values which sit around $13.

   BUT, and it’s a big but, will he come back by May 1st? And when (if?) he does, will he display the power right away? BABS is on my right shoulder saying to steer clear of Conforto because one shouldn’t keep players with major liabilities on the balance sheet. She also suggests that Conforto’s market price will be discounted at the auction table due to missing time at the beginning of the year, so I could likely get him at a discount and keep him next year (but unlikely for $2). My old way of thinking sits on my left shoulder and says for $2, there’s only upside.

   Which shoulder is more on point here?

   
   
   
6. Randal Divinski on February 20, 2018 at 3:45 pm

   How is it possible for Stanton NOT to have an injury liability? Does one “clean” year clear the slate?

   
   
   
7. shandler on February 20, 2018 at 4:13 pm

   BABS uses a two-year scan for injuries. For Stanton, it was one clean year, plus he was on the DL for only 23 days in 2016. Not enough to nudge the BABS injury indicator.

   
   
   
8. shandler on February 20, 2018 at 4:18 pm

   I don’t have answers to your questions about Conforto’s health and I don’t think the Mets do either (and I live here in Port St Lucie). But you can’t make this decision in a vacuum. Do you have a sense of what will be available in the catcher pool once all keepers are announced? If there are enough other options, then maybe you throw Contreras back. But if you do have to keep Contreras, odds are there will be a TON of outfielders to pick from.

   
   
   
9. Andrew on February 20, 2018 at 6:57 pm

   I hear you. I tried to give enough information, but I got too hung up on the shoulder puns!

   To add some more color, Posey was the high water mark for catchers last year at $25. Grandal went for $17 and Realmuto for $11. I would expect Contreras would go for Posey money this year. There do not look to be many (if any) decent keeper options at the catcher position. The way the league trends at catcher is that owners spend for top 5 or so catchers, and then scoop up what’s left near the back end for less than $5 each.

   What I think I hear BABS saying is speculate on Conforto for $2, pick up Contreras for $5-$6 over his keeper value (if that’s the way I want to go, or go with low risk, single asset players as your article suggests). It’s not like Contreras doesn’t have liabilities, and Conforto has a plus asset. Or maybe I’m just hearing things.

   
   
   
10. jeff Prescia on February 23, 2018 at 5:23 am

    Ron, any chance to get the printable version of the OF BABS ratings?

    
    
    
11. shandler on February 23, 2018 at 7:53 am

    You can print this page. You can sort and print the spreadsheet. You can generate an OF report from the database and then print.