BABS’ Take on Off-Season Player Movement… So Far

by Doug Gruber

MLB’s Collective Bargaining Agreement expired on December 2, prompting the owners to lock out the players and start baseball’s first work stoppage in 26 years. Free agency and other player movements have been brought to a halt, pending a new deal.

Prior to this, a few teams were highly active on the free agent and trade markets. Let’s look at the major transactions that took place, and view those from a BABS perspective for the affected teams.

Max Scherzer (ER,K+|inj-) and the New York Mets agreed to a three-year, $130 million contract.

BABS Take: Scherzer teaming with Jacob DeGrom (E+,K+|INJ) means the Mets now employ two of the highest rated BABS starters. And the move to a pitcher-friendly park should only help, where Scherzer’s career numbers at Citi Field in 14 starts include a 10-2 record, ratios of 2.14/0.90, and 125 strikeouts. He makes for a staff anchor once again.

The Mets handed out nearly $100 million to sign outfielder Starling Marte (S+,AV|inj-) and infielder Eduardo Escobar (p,a).

BABS Take: BABS places Marte in one of the highest rated asset groups, but he also carries risks of health, a new team and could be due for regression after his outstanding 2021 campaign. Meanwhile Escobar may be undervalued at ADP 190, especially if he lands a spot in the heart of the Mets order.

The Seattle Mariners and AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray (e,K+) finalized a 5-year deal.

BABS Take: BABS has always recognized Ray’s extreme strikeout skills, where he has consistently delivered a K% in the low 30s. In 2021, Ray also significantly reduced his BB rate and increased his first pitch strikes, leading to career bests in ERA and WHIP. BABS now places Ray atop the asset group with Freddy Peralta and Blake Snell,  while moving to a better park for pitchers and away from the AL East. Invest with confidence!

The Rangers have cemented a new middle infield with the signing of Corey Seager (p,A+|INJ) to a 10-year deal and Marcus Semien (p,a) for seven years.

BABS Take: A substantial upgrade for the Rangers! BABS however says Semien’s market price exceeds his skill set, despite his career year stat line from 2021. Seager, who is one of the few A+ rated players, makes for a more attractive target, with his current ADP falling three rounds after Semien. It also creates a log jam at 3B between Andy Ibanez (a|inj-,EX), Josh Jung (a|EX), Nick Solak (a|e) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (SB,a,-P), making it difficult to target any of these in early drafts.

The Rangers also bolstered their rotation by signing former Rockies SP Jon Gray (e,k|inj-).

BABS Take: Gray finally escapes Coors and could make for a profitable later round target.

Detroit was busy. The Tigers signed LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (e,KK|INJ) to a five-year deal and landed SS Javier Baez (p,SB,AV) for six years.

BABS Take: If healthy, Rodriguez’s skills and workhorse history, coupled with a move to the AL Central and Comerica Park, should make him an arm to target in Rounds 10-11. For Baez, BABS rates him as having a triple asset skill set, very valuable and very cheap at a 5th round ADP.

The Dodgers and the versatile Chris Taylor (p,SB,a) agreed on a four-year contract worth $60 million.

BABS Take: BABS agrees with the Dodgers commitment to Taylor, rating him as a triple asset player, who offers multi-position flexibility and is liability free. Target him at his Round 10 ADP.

The Dodgers kicked off the free agent season by signing former Angel Andrew Haney (KK) to a one-year $8 million contract.

BABS Take: Heaney continues to be a reliable source of strikeouts, and with his change of scenery could provide a return on a 20th round investment.

The Blue Jays inked Kevin Gausman (ER,KK) to a five-year deal, to replace the departed Robbie Ray.

BABS Take: BABS rates Gausman as owning significant skills in both Er and K, but his market price is higher than others in his asset group, like Joe Musgrove, Frankie Montas and Charlie Morton. Gausman also must adjust to a new league and a less friendly home ballpark.

The Giants came to an agreement with RHP Alex Cobb (e|INJ), and re-upped RHP Anthony DeSclafani (-|inj-).

BABS Take: Cobb won’t fill the huge hole created for the Giants with Gausman’s departure, but for your fantasy team BABS thinks Cobb could be source of profit at ADP 275. BABS believes DeSclafani had a magical year but does not expect a repeat as his 2021 stats were significantly better than his underlying skills.

The Cardinals and LHP Steven Matz (e,k|inj-) agreed to a four-year, $44 million deal.

BABS Take: BABS rates Matz as having above average skills in both Er and K, and he should receive a boost joining Yadier Molina and the Cards’ exceptional defense. Matz makes for an attractive draft target at his 17th round ADP.

The Diamondbacks signed Mark Melancon (ER,sv-) to a 2-year contract.

BABS Take: Melancon outperformed his skills and delivered 39 saves for the Padres. He now moves to a rebuilding team in Arizona, where saves may be harder to come by. BABS says do not overpay, but knowing he will own the ninth inning role, he could still provide value. Meanwhile, this move creates an opening in San Diego for their closer role. BABS is skeptical that Emilio Pagan (KK,-E) has closer worthy skills, and leans towards Pierce Johnson (e,KK,sv-|inj-,e) as being the more skillful RP for the job.

The Phillies signed right-handed pitcher Corey Knebel (E+,K+,sv-|INJ) to a one-year, $10 million contract.

BABS Take: BABS loves Knebel’s skills, rating him as extreme in both asset categories, which puts him in the same class as names like Hader, Hendriks and Pressly. The question of course is health, but the Phillies bullpen was a mess in 2021, making Knebel a prime target at ADP 220.

The Red Sox added RHP Michael Wacha (-E|INJ) and LHP Rich Hill (-E|inj-) to one-year deals.

BABS Take: Wacha and Hill are upgrades over Garrett Richards and Martin Perez for the Sox roster, however, BABS says neither is worth a spot on your fantasy roster.

Marcus Stroman (e|inj-) announced that he had reached a deal with the Chicago Cubs at three years, $71 million.

BABS Take: Stroman is coming off his best season, logging 179 IP after missing 2020 with his Covid opt-out. BABS says do not count on a repeat, based on his skills, and his move out of Citi Field.

Twins and RHP Dylan Bundy (k,-E|inj-) agreed to a one year $5 million contract.

BABS Take: While Bundy joins a rotation devoid of competent arms, BABS does not rate Bundy’s skills as worthy of your roster consideration.

The Baltimore Orioles agreed to a one-year deal with Rougned Odor (-A|inj-).

BABS Take: While Odor is only 28 years old and gets a shot at a full-time role in a hitter’s park, BABS is skeptical that his skills will lead to fantasy value. His ADP says he is free, just know he could be harmful to your roster.

Tampa sent infielder Mike Brosseau (p,-A|e)to the Brewers and Joey Wendle (SB,a) to the Marlins for minor league prospects.

BABS Take: For Tampa these moves clear the way for increased playing time for their talented prospects, notably Josh Lowe (p,SB|EX) and Vidal Brujan (S+,a,-P|EX) who make for attractive speculative targets.

The Marlins traded for the aforementioned Joey Wendle (SB,a), signed OF Avisail Garcia (p,a|inj-) to a four-year contract and acquired Pirates Gold Glove catcher Jacob Stallings (-|e).

BABS Take: BABS views all three additions as upgrades for the young Marlins. Wendle’s combination of speed/batting along with his 350 ADP makes him the most attractive target of this trio, although Stallings’s defense should ensure his playing time, which is valuable in 2-catcher formats.