2022 Updates from previous articles

(Photo by Bennett Cohen/Icon Sportswire)

In a normal year, most of the major player movement occurs earlier in the off-season. By the time we reach this final update, all we need to do is some minor cleanup. But this has not been a normal year.

What follows are updates from previous analyses that have become outdated.

 

 

POSITION ANALYSES

  • Mitch Garver (P+,a) will likely benefit from the trade to Texas where he has less competition for PT at catcher. Staying healthy is his key to topping 400 ABs for the first time in his career which, in turn, could lead to a 35 HR season.
  • Jesus Aguilar was listed as the last full-time 1B available with both Power and Batting Effectiveness assets. The health of Garrett Cooper and signing of Jorge Soler in Miami changed Jesus Aguilar’s projection to Mid-time.
  • Luis Urias (SS) was recommended as a (p,a) with profit potential. A quad injury is likely to sideline him through Opening Day. His ADP has fallen some 30 spots to the 190 range. Which is still a starting player. Alternate plans must be made for the early part of the season while he likely eats a reserve slot.

ASSET GROUP ANALYSES

(p,AV)

  • With the addition of Carlos Correa (p,a), Jorge Polanco (p,AV) slides over to the keystone, thus giving him multi-position flexibility (for at least this year).

(PW,a)

  • Following Cincinnati’s trade of Jesse Winker (p,A+) and Nick Castellanos’ (P+,AV) signing with the Phillies, Joey Votto (PW,a) is now surrounded by a much less-potent lineup and, while his skills are unaffected, his counting stats likely will be.

(p,a)

  • Connor Joe was mentioned as Full-time with an OBP * bump. The Rockies’ signing of Kris Bryant to play LF relegated Joe to Mid-time, but he’s still only a contact-challenged Sam Hilliard slow start away from FT.
  • Mid-timer Eddie Rosario has since snagged a Full-time role with the Braves.
  • Unsigned FA Michael Conforto (pictured) was projected to get a Full-time gig that hasn’t materialized. Unless the Mets take him back into the fold, he comes with the loss of a draft pick if signed prior to this year’s June draft. Halfway through spring training, he’s in danger of missing half the season.

Market—Playing Time Inefficiencies 

  • Eddie Rosario’s likely increase from Mid-time to Full-time was also highlighted here.
  • Speculation that then Mid-timer Marcel Ozuna might not land a Full-time role proved incorrect, rendering moot the suggestion of holding off on reaching for him ahead of then Full-timers Jeimer Candelario, Anthony Santander, Jesus Aguilar, or perhaps even Connor Joe. The health of Garrett Cooper and signing of Jorge Soler in Miami changed Jesus Aguilar’s projection to Mid-time, and the Rockies’ signing of Kris Bryant to play LF relegated Connor Joe to Mid-time.
  • Of the highlighted late-round/dollar day targets without skill liabilities from single-asset groups (a) and (p), the arrival of Eugenio Suarez in Seattle pushed Abraham Toro from Full-time to Mid-time, and Nick Solak slipped to Part-time in Texas.

BABS Looks at the National League DH

  • Miami. Jorge Soler (PW) joined the Marlins, and he could make for an ideal DH candidate, having done so previously in Kansas City. This will squeeze playing time from the previous DH candidates Jesus Aguilar (p,a), Garrett Cooper (AV) and talented youngsters such as Jesus Sanchez (PW,a) and Lewin Diaz (PW|-A). Diaz in fact has already been assigned to minor league camp.
  • Philadelphia. Both Nick Castellanos (PW,AV) and Kyle Schwarber (P+) may have their defensive issues, but both are premium bats, and one can be hidden at DH in what is shaping up as a powerful Phillies attack.
  • Washington. The signing of Nelson Cruz (PW,a) locks up the DH spot for the Nats. BABS says Cruz still provides assets in power and batting skills, and his price has never been cheaper.
  • Chicago Cubs signed Seiya Suzuki (p,a) and Jonathan Villar (|-P), making for a more offensive roster, including at the DH role. BABS had suggested that the DH could allow for catchers Willson Contreras (PW) and Yan Gomes (p,a) to both see full time at bats, but that outlook is muddied with Villar possibly taking the 3B job, and Suzuki starting in the OF. This would push power bats Patrick Wisdom (P+|-A) and Ian Happ (PW) into the DH mix, although BABS does not believe Villar has the skills to keep the job long term.
  • Milwaukee. The signing of veteran Andrew McCutcheon (PW) further dilutes the available Brewers at bats in the OF and at DH. BABS still bristles at the potential of Tyrone Taylor (p,SB,a) and his triple assets. Perhaps Taylor becomes an even greater draft day bargain.
  • Colorado. The Rockies have added Kris Bryant (PW,AV) for LF, Randal Grichuk (p) in center and Jose Iglesias (A+|-P)as SS, leaving the last lineup spot to be a battle between skillful outfielders Sam Hilliard (PW,s|-A), Connor Joe (p,a) and a BABS favorite speedster Garrett Hampson (p,S+|-A). This competition is too close to call.
  • Free Agents. As of this writing, Michael Conforto (p,a|inj-) is the one major free agent who could still find a landing spot for an NL team which could impact playing time for players competing for the DH position. Stay tuned.

2022 Salary Cap Game Strategy

BABS provided a process and a sample lineup for the NFBC Diamond Challenge (DC) salary cap contest, however, since that time a few players have hit the injured reserve who should be replaced:

  • Fernando Tatis (P+,SB,AV), $1600. Replace with Trea Turner (S+,A+), $1600.
  • Brandon Belt (P+,AV), $790. Replace with CJ Cron (PW,a), $900.
  • Shane Baz (ER,K+), $850. Replace with Justin Verlander (ER,KK), $820.

FINAL NOTE

A Coors Field/BABS collaborative short story:

  • Free agent Kris Bryant (p,a | ADP 91). 
  • Colorado Kris Bryant: (PW,AV | ADP < 60). 

Normally, a sharp ballpark change only merits a a (Pk+) or (Pk-) designation on a player’s balance sheet since there is no change in underlying skill. The ranges of each BABS rating are so broad that a park change won’t affect most players. However, there are rare exceptions, particularly when a player’s skills metrics are already close to the cusp of a BABS rating cut-off. As it turns out, that happens to be the case with Bryant.