2022 Asset Group Analysis – (e,KK)
(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)
by Doug Gruber
Asset groups are a key component of the BABS system. They are our means to assemble players with comparable skills profiles and then review how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. As described in Chapter 2 of The BABS Project 3.1, that’s not always the case. Here is where we can uncover opportunities to build profit into our rosters.
(e,KK)
| ADP | R$ | PITCHER | Pos | Tm | PT | Er | K | Sv | Pk | Rg | Sk- | Inj | Ex | Nw | Ag | Pk | Rg | RISK | ||
| 42 | $21 | Giolito,Lucas | SP | CWS | F | e | KK | inj- | 3.00 | |||||||||||
| 56 | $18 | Peralta,Freddy | SP | MLW | M | e | KK | Rg- | 0.25 | |||||||||||
| 64 | $17 | Lynn,Lance | SP | CWS | F | e | KK | inj- | Rg- | 1.25 | ||||||||||
| 72 | $16 | Flaherty,Jack | SP | STL | M | e | KK | INJ | 3.00 | |||||||||||
| 83 | $14 | Castillo,Luis | SP | CIN | F | e | KK | Rg+ | 0 | |||||||||||
| 85 | $14 | Cease,Dylan | SP | CWS | F | e | KK | e | 1.00 | |||||||||||
| 93 | $13 | Manoah,Alek | SP | TOR | M | e | KK | EX | 2.00 | |||||||||||
| 94 | $13 | Rogers,Trevor | SP | MIA | M | e | KK | e | Rg- | 1.25 | ||||||||||
| 96 | $13 | Morton,Charlie | SP | ATL | M | e | KK | inj- | Ag | 1.25 | ||||||||||
| 99 | $12 | Darvish,Yu | SP | SDP | M | e | KK | Rg+ | inj- | 1.00 | ||||||||||
| 111 | $11 | Verlander,Justin | SP | HOU | P | e | KK | INJ | Ag | 3.25 | ||||||||||
| 119 | $11 | Snell,Blake | SP | SDP | M | e | KK | inj- | 1.00 | |||||||||||
| 133 | $10 | Eovaldi,Nathan | SP | BOS | M | e | KK | inj- | 1.00 | |||||||||||
| 151 | $8 | Garcia,Luis H. | SP | HOU | M | e | KK | e | 1.00 | |||||||||||
| 154 | $8 | Rodriguez,Eduardo | SP | DET | M | e | KK | Rg+ | INJ | 3.00 | ||||||||||
| 176 | $7 | Gray,Sonny | SP | CIN | M | e | KK | INJ | 3.00 | |||||||||||
| 190 | $6 | Skubal,Tarik | SP | DET | M | e | KK | e | 1.00 | |||||||||||
| 217 | $5 | Sandoval,Patrick | SP | LAA | M | e | KK | INJ | e | 4.00 | ||||||||||
| 241 | $4 | Ynoa,Huascar | SP | ATL | P | e | KK | INJ | EX | 5.00 | ||||||||||
| 401 | $0 | German,Domingo | SP | NYY | P | e | KK | INJ | 3.00 |
The (e,KK) pitcher asset group is a deep, capable collection of pitchers projected for a mid 3s ERA and probably 10-11 Ks per nine. You will want at least one, maybe more, for your roster.
A quick consult with the FISH List tells us that BABS pegs fair value for this class around picks 110-120. That makes the first six taken much too pricey, reflecting a market rush towards scarce pitchers projected for 180 innings or more.
Next comes a more interesting foursome, all going just before pick 100. Drafters are indifferent between two of last year’s rookie sensations in Alek Manoah and Trevor Rogers versus established stars Charlie Morton and Yu Darvish. BABS says each is a gifted arm worthy of roster consideration at this price, so pick your preference…an aging veteran with injury risk or a young gun with less than a full season of experience.
As we move to the lower half, we find a pair of former Cy Young winners. Justin Verlander (pictured) pitched one game in 2020 and none in 2021 due to TJS, and the delayed 2022 spring training makes him a risky selection at this point. Blake Snell put together a terrific stretch in July-August, resembling his 2018 award-winning numbers, before a September injury ended his campaign. Feeling lucky? It only costs an 8th round selection to see if either can return towards prior performance levels, but those prices could soar with positive news from camp.
Further down the group is the BABS sweet spot: pitchers who possess comparable skill sets to the big names above, minimal liabilities and a market discount. The rap on Nathan Eovaldi has previously been his health. A year ago, he made 32 starts, good for 182 innings, with a K-BB rate of 21 percent and ratios of 3.75/1.19. Target Eovaldi in round 9.
Luis Garcia ran with his Astros rotation spot and never looked back. He delivered an excellent swinging strike rate of nearly 14 percent while earning $16, to the delight of his 2021 fantasy owners. BABS thinks Garcia has the talents to do it again.
After a full year proving that his COVID-related complications are behind him, Eduardo Rodriguez signed a long-term deal with the Tigers before the lockout. With 31 starts, a K-rate of 27 percent and a 3.31 FIP — more than a full run below his actual ERA — E-Rod makes for a positive regression play while also moving to a better ballpark for 2022. You’ll need to budget for the injury risk, however.
Sonny Gray had a down year, but a closer examination reveals his skills metrics were in line with his historical numbers. BABS thinks Gray could be a source of profit at his 12th round ADP.
In the 2nd half of 2021, Tarik Skubal put up a solid 20 percent K-BB rate, to go with a 1.09 WHIP. Home runs were his nemesis, suppressing this year’s draft price. BABS sees this as a buying opportunity.
The final three hurlers are packed with liabilities, but at their ADPs, BABS believes the rewards may outweigh the risk costs. Patrick Sandoval posted career-best strikeout rates and ratios; unfortunately, he was limited to 87 IP before his season ended with a back injury. Be ready for his stock to rise if he looks healthy in the upcoming weeks.
Over his first eight starts Huascar Ynoa and his elite slider delivered a 3.09 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, backed by a 22 percent K-BB rate. We all know what happened afterwards, when dugout frustration led to a broken hand. Although Ynoa didn’t have the same pre-injury magic when he returned, BABS is still a supporter heading into 2022.
Ditto for Domingo German, who flashed periods of domination in his 18 starts for the Yanks, only to have his season cut short with shoulder woes. He only costs an end game speculative dart.