2022 FIRSTBASEMEN
(Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
by Greg Fishwick
As usual, 1B is a position with plenty of punch, including 20 (19%) of the 108 full-timers projected to provide impact Power and 24 (18%) of the 136 full-timers projected to provide impact Batting Effectiveness. Here’s a look at the pool of full-time, mid-time and part-time players.
| ADP | R$ | 1BMEN | Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | * | Rg | Sk | Inj | Ex | Ag | Rg | RISK | |
| 19 | $29 | Freeman,Freddie | 3 | ATL | F | PW | A+ | * | 0.00 | ||||||||
| 231 | $4 | Belt,Brandon | 3 | SF | M | P+ | AV | * | INJ | 3.00 | |||||||
| 143 | $9 | Hoskins,Rhys | 3 | PHI | F | P+ | a | * | INJ | 3.00 | |||||||
| 145 | $9 | Muncy,Max | 34 | LA | F | P+ | a | * | INJ | 3.00 | |||||||
| 6 | $40 | Guerrero Jr.,Vladimir | 30 | TOR | F | p | A+ | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 50 | $19 | Goldschmidt,Paul | 3 | STL | F | PW | AV | * | 0.00 | ||||||||
| 469 | $(2) | Ruf,Darin | 3o7 | SF | M | PW | AV | * | inj- | 1.00 | |||||||
| 232 | $4 | Dalbec,Bobby | 3 | BOS | F | P+ | e | 1.00 | |||||||||
| 43 | $21 | Olson,Matt | 3 | OAK | F | PW | a | * | 0.00 | ||||||||
| 58 | $18 | Alonso,Pete | 3 | NYM | F | PW | a | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 107 | $12 | Mountcastle,Ryan | 307o | BAL | F | PW | a | e | 1.00 | ||||||||
| 129 | $10 | Cron,C.J. | 3 | COL | F | PW | a | INJ | 3.00 | ||||||||
| 155 | $8 | Votto,Joey | 3 | CIN | F | PW | a | * | inj- | Ag | 1.25 | ||||||
| 273 | $3 | Voit,Luke | 3 | NYY | M | PW | a | INJ | 3.00 | ||||||||
| 74 | $16 | Abreu,Jose | 3 | CHW | F | p | a | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 116 | $11 | Walsh,Jared | 3 | LAA | F | p | a | e | 1.00 | ||||||||
| 134 | $10 | Bell,Josh | 3 | WAS | F | p | a | * | 0.00 | ||||||||
| 173 | $7 | Kirilloff,Alex | o39 | MIN | F | p | a | INJ | EX | 5.00 | |||||||
| 186 | $7 | Mancini,Trey | 30 | BAL | F | p | a | INJ | 3.00 | ||||||||
| 286 | $2 | Aguilar,Jesus | 3 | MIA | F | p | a | inj- | 1.00 | ||||||||
| 344 | $1 | Tellez,Rowdy | 3 | MIL | M | p | a | INJ | e | 4.00 | |||||||
| 741 | $(7) | Moreland,Mitch | 0 | OAK | P | p | a | INJ | Ag | 3.25 | |||||||
| 1000 | $(10) | Guzman,Ronald | 3 | TEX | P | p | a | Rg+ | INJ | e | 4.00 | ||||||
| 138 | $10 | France,Ty | 304 | SEA | F | AV | 0.00 | ||||||||||
| 198 | $6 | Gurriel,Yulieski | 3 | HOU | F | AV | Ag | Rg- | 0.50 | ||||||||
| 363 | $0 | Hosmer,Eric | 3 | SD | F | AV | inj- | 1.00 | |||||||||
| 747 | $(7) | Zimmerman,Ryan | 3 | WAS | P | PW | Ag | 0.25 | |||||||||
| 269 | $3 | Sano,Miguel | 3 | MIN | F | P+ | * | -A | 3.00 | ||||||||
| 410 | $(1) | Bradley,Bobby | 3 | CLE | F | P+ | -A | inj- | EX | 6.00 | |||||||
| 530 | $(4) | Pratto,Nick | 3 | KC | P | P+ | -A | EX | 5.00 | ||||||||
| 171 | $7 | Rizzo,Anthony | 3 | NYY | F | a | 0.00 | ||||||||||
| 200 | $6 | Schoop,Jonathan | 34 | DET | F | a | inj- | 1.00 | |||||||||
| 230 | $5 | Schwindel,Frank | 3 | CHC | F | a | EX | Rg- | 2.25 | ||||||||
| 243 | $4 | Lowe,Nate | 3 | TEX | F | a | * | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 486 | $(3) | Cabrera,Miguel | 3 | DET | F | a | Ag | 0.25 | |||||||||
| 434 | $(2) | Walker,Christian | 3 | ARI | M | p | INJ | 3.00 | |||||||||
| 580 | $(5) | Choi,Ji-Man | 3 | TAM | M | p | * | INJ | 3.00 | ||||||||
| 259 | $3 | Torkelson,Spencer | 3 | DET | P | * | inj- | EX | 3.00 | ||||||||
| 463 | $(2) | Santana,Carlos | 3 | KC | M | * | Ag | 0.25 | |||||||||
| 435 | $(2) | Hiura,Keston | 3 | MIL | P | PW | -A | e | 4.00 | ||||||||
| 576 | $(4) | Miller,Bradley | 3o | PHI | P | PW | * | -A | 3.00 | ||||||||
| 607 | $(5) | Diaz,Lewin | 3 | MIA | P | PW | -A | EX | 5.00 | ||||||||
| 380 | $(0) | Diaz,Yandy | 35 | TAM | M | a | * | -P | inj- | 2.00 | |||||||
| 370 | $(0) | Tsutsugo,Yoshitomo | 3o9 | PIT | F | p | * | -A | inj- | e | 5.00 | ||||||
| 675 | $(6) | Chang,Yu | 35 | CLE | P | -A | EX | 5.00 | |||||||||
| 713 | $(7) | White,Evan | 3 | SEA | P | Rg+ | -A | INJ | EX | 8.00 |
ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt), Risk cost
There are 16 full-time and four mid-time 1B-eligible batters projected to provide both Power and Batting Effectiveness. Focusing on that group, the obvious six top targets are Vladimir Guerrero, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Paul Goldschmidt, Pete Alonso (pictured), and Jose Abreu. What if you miss out on them? Let’s see who BABS likes after those sexy six.
A first sort on Power, the most important Asset to gain from 1B, then Batting Effectiveness uncovers a potential target in Brandon Belt (P+,AV) with INJ lowering his PT projection to M. Especially in OBP leagues, keep him on your radar at ADP 231. Even at a slight skills downgrade, Rhys Hoskins and Max Muncy (P+,a |INJ) are expected to play full-time and have ADPs just under 150. Muncy’s dual eligibility at 2B may be a tie-breaker. Another 1B with dual eligibility (in OF) is Darin Ruf (PW,AV|inj-). He’ll get lots of helium if the DH comes to the NL and pushes his PT from M to F, but for now he’s hidden at an ADP outside 450.
Next, look at the three full-time value plays in the same asset group as Alonso and Olson (PW,a). Ryan Mountcastle, with dual eligibility in OF and only a one-unit Liability cost is at an ADP just outside the top 100. Joey Votto, with an OBP bump and a combined Risk cost of just 1.25 is at ADP around 150. And CJ Cron has INJ risk, but is still expected to play full-time at an ADP around 130. Note that Cron missed three weeks in the first half with back tightness and posted a second-half OPS of .977.
Finally, three of the five full-timers in the same asset group as Abreu (p,a) make attractive value targets after Abreu is gone. Josh Bell may be BABS’ best of the bunch, with an OBP bump and no Liabilities. He’s going four rounds later and $6 less than Abreu at an ADP around 130. Trey Mancini’s INJ risk is from colon cancer recovery in 2020. He came back for a full season in 2021, and should be full-time and full strength for 2022. At an ADP inside 200, he is a bona fide bargain over 100 picks/seven rounds after Abreu. To end with another “as usual,” Jesus Aguilar is again likely to be the last full-timer available with both Power and Batting Effectiveness assets. He has only a minor (inj-) risk, but is going 100 picks after Mancini.
Target Power from 1B and consider double- or triple-dipping to cover 1B/CI/UT. If you do, also roster at least two multi-position players—one who could fill in at 3B/CI and another for your sixth OF. And take advantage of these ten market inefficiencies BABS has spotted for you.
NOTES: The chart above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.