22-02-10 Mailbag
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How are Asset Groups ranked against each other? Higher skills in the same category are obvious, but how do you decide to rank (PW, a) vs (p, AV)? Or (ER, k) vs (e, KK)? And, the most mysterious of all, how are hitting and pitching categories ranked against each other? In general, is this finely honed or somewhat arbitrary?
There is a wide range between “finely honed” and “somewhat arbitrary,” and BABS’ approach is firmly planted in between, somewhere. In general terms, speed is ranked higher than batting effectiveness, which is ranked higher than power, from a strictly skills scarcity perspective as it relates to most fantasy formats. This works well in a Rotisserie environment where stolen bases are a precious commodity; somewhat less in a sim game where SBs are a supplementary skill. But there is little in BABS that is carved in stone. That is why we provide a spreadsheet that you can use to better customize the rankings to your own league experience.
That thought carries over to all the rankings of Asset Groups. There is little difference between (PW,a) and (p,AV), and if you opt to target one class of player over another, nobody is going to show up at your house with a machete. Integrating hitters and pitchers is more art than science. They represent two different commodities and skill sets; ranking them needs to be based on your roster construction and need. It’s like saying that spaghetti pomodoro is better than meatloaf. You might think one is better, I might think the other is better, but both of them together is the best way to win at dinner.
I haven’t seen this anywhere but evaluating players assets with playing time, which is considered better value and which is least?
Player A – Full-timer (p)
Player B – Mid-timer (PW)
Player C – Part-timer (P+)
When it comes to hitters, playing time drives everything. So while the power skills are different, the impact on other categories matters. At its most extreme, these players might actually hit around the same number of HRs — 15-20, perhaps — but Player A will have far more runs and RBIs, perhaps more stolen bases, and a bigger impact on your team batting average (assuming that’s a positive).
However, this also needs to be analyzed within the players’ respective contexts. Playing time expectations are fluid, driven by things like player health and team construct. If that full-timer is an injury risk and the mid-timer is behind a shaky front-liner, then the (M) option might be the best.
No love for Vlad Jr.? I am sure some regression is going to kick in, but how is a kid in his early 20s coming off a 48 HR season only a ‘p’?
Yeah, it seems counterintuitive. BABS is slow to respond to the ridiculously sharp spike in Guerrero’s underlying skills from previous years, relying more on regression. And he’s still a little ground-ball heavy. I could do a manual override on the rating (I’ve been arm-twisted to do that on occasion) but that has occasionally come back to bite me. BABS is right more often than she’s not, but she is admittedly blind on some players. I’ll take the heat if he hits 48 HRs again, but I’m willing to bet he’ll fall short of 40 and everyone will have overpaid… which is what BABS is trying to advise anyway.