2022 THIRDBASEMEN
by Doug Gruber
Early drafters have declared the third base pool as being extremely shallow for 2022. As such, Jose Ramirez (pictured) and Rafael Devers have been pushed into the first round, with Manny Machado soon after. BABS smiles when she sees this overreaction, knowing there are twelve other full-time 3Bmen who possess dual assets, several of whom can be acquired after pick 200. BABS has also identified other intriguing mid-timers, including a pair of Royals who are very skillful but carry large risk costs.
Let’s take a closer look at the BABS ratings for the 2022 third basemen:
ADP | R$ | 3BMEN | Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | * | Rg | Sk | Inj | Ex | Ag | Rg | RISK | |
4 | $44 | Ramirez,Jose | 5 | CLE | F | PW | s | AV | * | 0.00 | |||||||
92 | $13 | Witt Jr.,Bobby | 5 | KC | M | PW | SB | a | EX | 2.00 | |||||||
58 | $18 | Mondesi,Adalberto | 5 | KC | M | p | S+ | INJ | 5.00 | ||||||||
18 | $29 | Devers,Rafael | 5 | BOS | F | PW | AV | 0.00 | |||||||||
53 | $19 | Riley,Austin | 5 | ATL | F | PW | a | Rg- | 0.25 | ||||||||
161 | $8 | Turner,Justin | 5 | LA | F | PW | a | INJ | Ag | 3.25 | |||||||
169 | $8 | McMahon,Ryan | 54 | COL | F | PW | a | 0.00 | |||||||||
212 | $5 | Donaldson,Josh | 50 | MIN | F | PW | a | * | INJ | Ag | 3.25 | ||||||
23 | $27 | Machado,Manny | 5 | SD | F | p | AV | 0.00 | |||||||||
109 | $12 | Rendon,Anthony | 5 | LAA | F | p | AV | * | INJ | 3.00 | |||||||
394 | $(1) | Flores,Wilmer | 534 | SF | M | p | AV | inj- | 1.00 | ||||||||
735 | $(7) | Smith,Kevin | 5 | TOR | P | PW | s | EX | 2.00 | ||||||||
352 | $0 | Wendle,Joe | 56 | MIA | F | SB | a | 0.25 | |||||||||
142 | $9 | Hayes,KeBryan | 5 | PIT | F | s | a | INJ | e | 4.00 | |||||||
72 | $16 | Arenado,Nolan | 5 | STL | F | p | a | 0.00 | |||||||||
92 | $13 | Bregman,Alex | 5 | HOU | F | p | a | * | INJ | 3.00 | |||||||
145 | $9 | Moncada,Yoan | 5 | CHW | F | p | a | * | 0.00 | ||||||||
190 | $6 | Escobar,Eduardo | 54 | NYM | F | p | a | 0.50 | |||||||||
225 | $5 | Candelario,Jeimer | 5 | DET | F | p | a | 0.00 | |||||||||
400 | $(1) | Longoria,Evan | 5 | SF | M | p | a | INJ | Ag | 3.25 | |||||||
451 | $(2) | Davis,J.D. | 5 | NYM | P | p | a | * | INJ | Rg- | 3.25 | ||||||
737 | $(7) | Camargo,Johan | 543 | PHI | P | p | a | 0.00 | |||||||||
303 | $2 | Arraez,Luis | 547o | MIN | F | A+ | -P | INJ | e | 5.00 | |||||||
204 | $6 | Suarez,Eugenio | 56 | CIN | F | P+ | * | Rg+ | -A | 3.00 | |||||||
318 | $1 | Wisdom,Patrick | 5 | CHC | F | P+ | -A | EX | Rg- | 5.25 | |||||||
267 | $3 | Urshela,Giovanny | 56 | NYY | M | a | INJ | 3.00 | |||||||||
279 | $3 | Jung,Josh | 5 | TEX | F | a | EX | 2.00 | |||||||||
286 | $2 | Bohm,Alec | 5 | PHI | M | a | e | 1.00 | |||||||||
616 | $(5) | Diaz,Aledmys | 5 | HOU | P | a | INJ | 3.00 | |||||||||
546 | $(4) | Espinal,Santiago | 5 | TOR | F | s | AV | -P | inj- | EX | Rg- | 4.25 | |||||
375 | $(0) | Moustakas,Mike | 5 | CIN | M | p | INJ | 3.00 | |||||||||
650 | $(6) | Duffy,Matt | 54 | CHC | P | AV | -P | INJ | Rg- | 4.25 | |||||||
723 | $(7) | Alberto,Hanser | 54 | KC | P | AV | -P | 1.00 | |||||||||
383 | $(0) | Anderson,Brian | 5 | MIA | M | INJ | 3.00 | ||||||||||
701 | $(6) | Welker,Colton | 5 | COL | P | EX | 2.00 | ||||||||||
186 | $7 | Chapman,Matt | 5 | OAK | F | PW | * | -A | INJ | 6.00 | |||||||
622 | $(5) | Berti,Jon | 54 | MIA | P | SB | * | Rg+ | -P | INJ | e | 5.00 | |||||
746 | $(7) | Astudillo,Willians | 53 | MIN | P | a | -P | inj- | e | 3.00 | |||||||
282 | $3 | Biggio,Cavan | 5 | TOR | F | p | * | -A | INJ | e | 7.00 | ||||||
677 | $(6) | Burger,Jake | 5 | CHW | P | p | -A | EX | 5.00 | ||||||||
280 | $3 | Villar,Jonathan | 56 | NYM | P | -P | 1.00 | ||||||||||
749 | $(7) | Culberson,Charlie | 5 | TEX | P | -P | 1.00 | ||||||||||
745 | $(7) | Diaz,Isan | 54 | MIA | P | * | -A | inj- | e | 5.00 | |||||||
503 | $(3) | Kieboom,Carter | 5 | WAS | M | * | Rg+ | -PA | EX | 6.00 | |||||||
729 | $(7) | Gutierrez,Kelvin | 5 | BAL | M | -PA | INJ | EX | 9.00 | ||||||||
1000 | $(10) | Holt,Brock | 5 | TEX | P | * | -PA | INJ | 7.00 |
ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt), Risk cost
The next 3Bman off the draft board is Austin Riley (PW,a) who had a breakout 33/107/.303 season, although BABS thinks that batting average could regress. But you do not need to spend up for him. BABS has identified three other comparably skilled hitters in Riley’s (PW,a) asset group who can be acquired well after Round 10.
Justin Turner (PW,a|INJ) is once again undervalued, despite coming off a healthy season and his best fantasy production since 2017. He is available more than 100 picks after Riley. Or you could wait another round for Ryan McMahon (PW,a), who hit 16 HRs in the first half of 2021, likely will hit in the heart of the Rockies order and brings 3B/2B eligibility. In the 15th round is Josh Donaldson (PW,a|INJ) whose BABS rating is fully supported by his Statcast metrics. Owners may be spooked with his INJ concerns and advancing age, but he has accumulated more than 1200 PAs in the last two full seasons, earning $21 and $14, respectively. He could be a great profit source once again.
In the (p,AV) class, rather than Machado in Round 2, Anthony Rendon (p,AV|INJ) has similar power and batting skills and is available after pick 100. Rendon carries an injury liability after missing the majority of 2021, but if he is healthy as the recent reports suggest, he could be valuable at this price. But the gemstone of this group could be mid-timer Wilmer Flores (p,AV|inj-), who always seems to produce but never seems to have a position. In 2020, when the NL had a DH, Flores started 53 out of the 60 games for the Giants and delivered a $20 season. Hmmm…
Two of the full-timers offer both speed and batting effectiveness assets. Ke’Bryan Hayes (s,a|INJ,e) was a sought-after rookie a year ago, and BABS agreed that Hayes owned intriguing skills. However, an early season wrist injury cost him considerable time and hurt his power output. Fantasy leaguers will again have to balance his skills potential versus the risk costs, given his 10th round market price. Or…you could wait another 200 picks and target Joe Wendle (SB,a) where his significant speed skills may blend nicely with his new manager in Miami who is not afraid to flash a green light.
Market prices for the five full-time hitters in (p,a) asset group show a very wide range. Rather than spend a higher round chip for Nolan Arenado or Alex Bregman, BABS says you can wait till the 10th for Yoan Moncada (p,a). Better yet, there are two other similar bats, who are absent major liabilities and are available in the ADP 200 range. In the last two full MLB seasons, Eduardo Escobar (p,a) has averaged 650 PAs and a slash line of 32/104/.263, and now joins a Mets team where the top of the lineup could be exciting…S. Marte, Lindor, Escobar, Alonso. In Detroit, Jeimer Candelaria (p,a) continues to hit line drives, and his 2nd half looked like this…12/46/.284, good for $20. BABS likes the profit potential for a 15 round Candelaria investment.
BABS also says don’t sleep on Evan Longoria (p,a|INJ) or J.D. Davis (p,a|INJ) from this (p,a) group, a pair who earned double digit value in both 2019 and 2020 and are available in the end game.
Few hitters carry the coveted BABS “+” rating, reserved for those who possess skills in the top 10 percent of the respective asset categories. Within the 3B pool there are three full-time players who have these extreme skill sets; however, each has a skill liability in another category. Eugenio Suarez (P+,-A) and Patrick Wisdom (P+,-A|EX) both exhibit extreme power skills, but also are harmful to the batting effectiveness category. Suarez has been one of the top HR sources for several years running, but also hit below .200 last season. Luis Arraez (A+,-P|INJ,e) has the opposite skill set, rated A+ but he has never hit more than four home runs in a season. Nevertheless, depending on your roster construction, these extreme skills could be cheap sources of valuable category contributors.
BABS has taught that if a player exhibits the skills, they are only an injury or positional adjustment away from increased playing time. BABS also clearly highlights the risk costs, especially for early round selections. This is very evident with the BABS ratings for the two talented Royals mid-timers listed among the top 3B asset groups. Bobby Witt Jr. (PW,SB,a|EX) is one of the game’s top prospects, and maybe the new CBA will increase his chances of breaking camp with the parent club. Owners seem to be betting as such, given his 6th round and rising ADP. BABS agrees he could be valuable to all hitting categories but reminds us with an (EX) liability that he has zero big-league at bats. Adalberto Mondesi (p,S+|INJ) continues to be the poster boy for extreme speed…and significant injury risk. Even his GM recently stated, “He may not be a guy that plays more than 100 games,” which he has done only once in his career. But when he does play…oh my. His career numbers extrapolated to a 160-game season would be 18/72/.249 with 82 runs and 60 steals! It will take a high-cost 4th round selection for maybe-this-is-the-year.
The asset group rankings also help us avoid players who are being drafted in all formats but do not possess the skills to help our fantasy teams. If you are looking for a gold-glover, Matt Chapman (PW|-A,inj-) might be a good pick, however, for fantasy production, BABS says there are better targets available at 3B. Ditto for Cavan Biggio (p|-A,INJ,e) and Jonathan Villar (-P).
NOTES: The chart above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.