2022 Rookie Batters with a BABS Lens

by Curt Brooks

While fantasy managers dream of re-capturing Mike Trout’s 2012 rookie season, reality tells us that far lesser outcomes for rookies are much more the norm. Taking the plunge on prospects can be daunting as experience and playing time factors are magnified in these rostering decisions.

(MLE ratings from BABS Minor League Ratings Page)

2021 call-ups who still qualify as rookies

Oneil Cruz (p,SB) stands out with no skill liabilities and may have a potential path to playing time. His MLEs (PW,SB,a) were among the top 5 in the minors and show that there is even further upside.

Four players offer a contribution in at least one category but have less-clear paths to playing time and/or possess skill liabilities. Speed is Vidal Brujan’s (S+,a|-P) calling card even in the minors (SB|-A). Jake Burger’s BABS rating (p|-A) is identical to his MLEs, which may indicate more of a ceiling. Keibert Ruiz (a|-P), is not expected to have much impact in the short term, but his MLE (PW,AV) suggests additional upside. On the other hand, Jose Barrero (SB|-P) is more of a mixed bag given his MLEs (PW,a) which suggests time is needed to fully sort out his skill set.

Also debuting last year, Kyle Isbel (|-PA) and Geraldo Perdomo (|-PA) stepped in to fill injury voids but neither appears to see significant playing time at present; both have moderate speed potential. Similarly, Yoho Pozo (p,AV) has low PT projections and his identical MLEs do not portend significant growth beyond current levels.

2022 prospects with compelling BABS ratings

BABS has Bobby Witt, Jr. (PW,SB,a), pictured, at the top of the class, fully supported by identical MLEs, which ranked No. 3 on the MLE list. Following closely is Riley Greene (p,SB,a), with the highest rated/near-elite MLEs (PW,SB,AV), perhaps suggesting a fantasy star in the making. Both are projected for significant PT. Josh Lowe (p,SB,*) appears to have even more upside based on his MLEs (PW,SB,a,*), but will have to crack the starting lineup.

No. 1 on many lists, Julio Rodriguez (s,a) could be a multi-category contributor, and his bat skills certainly appear to be justified given his MLEs (A+,*). Josh Jung (a), also with top 10 MLEs (PW,AV) suggests even further growth, while Adley Rutschman (a,*) had somewhat less compelling MLEs (*|-A). All three are projected for legitimate PT.

2022 prospects with uncertain playing time projections

Kevin Smith (PW) has top 3 MLEs (P+,SB) which, combined with no liabilities, is a strong line but he must earn a spot in an already talented, and deep Toronto lineup.

Nick Pratto (P+|-A) established top-15 MLEs (P+,SB|-A) but has the one liability that could hinder PT. Jordan Groshans (p) may have even more growth coming in the power department as shown in his MLEs (P), while MJ Melendez, Jr. (*) could see some PT given his valuable MLEs (PW).

Brennen Davis (p|-A) displayed moderately better MLEs (PW|-A) but may need to improve his bat skills to achieve regular PT. Likewise, Spencer Torkelson (*) had very similar MLEs (PW,*|-A) but also carries the injury tag into this season. Austin Martin (*|-P) showed some speed potential in his MLEs (s,*) that could be valuable if afforded PT, and Nolan Gorman (|-A) must overcome similarly negative MLEs (|-A) to earn regular PT. Finally, CJ Abrams (*), with a season-ending leg injury last July, had a partial-season MLE line of (a|-P).

Other 2022 prospects of note

Two players that have some forecasted playing time and possess upside based on their MLEs are Alek Thomas (), MLEs (p,s,a), and Jake Meyers (|Rg-) MLEs (p,AV).

Among the players with no MLB BABS rating but interesting MLEs include Oswald Peraza (s,a), Miguel Vargas (AV), Triston Casas (*), and Pedro Leon (*,-A). As the old saying goes, “actual mileage may vary.”

Be aware that each player discussed here will carry the (EX)perience liability for the entire season. It is imperative to continually examine MLB 40-man rosters and depth charts to assess the likelihood of PT as the season approaches and it also pays to keep an eye on the IL throughout the season. Fantasy managers must know their league rules intimately – selections for re-draft/auction, keeper, dynasty, and draft-and-hold leagues will vary immensely. For keeper or dynasty leagues, especially, it is also critical to know your strategy heading into the season – ready to challenge vs. rebuilding mode, for example.

And always remember that even the most highly-rated prospects can stumble and not achieve their lofty expectations for years (repeat after me, “Alex Rodriguez”).