2022 RELIEF PITCHERS

(Photo by Juan DeLeon/Icon Sportswire)

by Pat Cloghessy

In 2021, league wide abandonment of primary closers continued apace. 

Early on in 2022, drafters appear to be betting that trend will continue. BABS concurs, projecting just six relievers to be ace game finishers (SV). Recent history tells us even that hypothesis is susceptible to failure once tested in real games. Closers come out of the spring every year and fail and never see the 9th inning again. Saves continue to be more distributed in this era, making them difficult to project. This may be the reason we see 10 closers leave the board over the first ~110 picks, and only 14 taken between ADP 110 and 303. 

Here are the BABS ratings for relief pitchers who will potentially provide positive value to your team:

ADP R$ RELIEF PITCHERS Pos Tm PT Er K Sv Rg Sk Inj Ex Ag Rg RISK
36 $23 Hader,Josh rp MIL E+ K+ SV       Rg- 0.25
58 $18 Iglesias,Raisel rp LAA E+ K+ SV         0.00
73 $16 Pressly,Ryan rp HOU E+ K+ SV         0.00
34 $23 Hendriks,Liam rp CHW E+ K+ sv-         0.00
147 $9 Kimbrel,Craig rp CHW E+ K+ sv-       Rg- 0.25
220 $5 Knebel,Corey rp PHI E+ K+ sv-   INJ   Rg- 3.50
316 $1 Williams,Devin rp MIL E+ K+   inj- e   2.00
65 $17 Clase,Emmanuel rp CLE E+ KK sv-     e Rg- 1.25
229 $5 Rogers,Taylor rp MIN E+ KK sv- Rg+ INJ     3.00
70 $16 Diaz,Edwin rp NYM ER K+ SV         0.00
84 $14 Chapman,Aroldis rp NYY ER K+ sv-   INJ     3.00
114 $11 Gallegos,Giovanny rp STL ER K+ sv-   inj-   Rg- 1.25
207 $6 Bednar,David rp PIT ER K+ sv-     e Rg- 1.25
270 $3 Giles,Ken rp SEA ER K+ sv-   INJ     3.00
510 -$3 Rosenthal,Trevor rp OAK ER K+ sv-   INJ     3.00
523 -$4 Fairbanks,Peter rp TAM ER K+ sv-     e   1.00
674 -$6 Bummer,Aaron rp CHW E+ KK   INJ     3.00
739 -$7 Antone,Tejay rp CIN E+ KK   INJ+ EX Rg- 7.25
92 $13 Jansen,Kenley rp LA e K+ sv-       Rg- 0.25
268 $3 Sims,Lucas rp CIN e K+ sv- Rg+ inj-     1.00
271 $3 Barnes,Matt rp BOS e K+ sv-   inj-     1.00
395 -$1 Rainey,Tanner rp WAS e K+ sv- Rg+ INJ e   4.00
739 -$7 Anderson,Nick rp TAM e K+ sv-   INJ+ e Rg- 6.25
269 $3 Ashby,Aaron rp MIL ER K+ Rg+   EX   2.00
332 $1 Sewald,Paul rp SEA ER K+         0.00
400 -$1 Green,Chad rp NYY ER K+         0.00
501 -$3 Neris,Hector rp HOU ER K+         0.25
595 -$5 Hudson,Daniel rp LA ER K+   inj-     1.00
654 -$6 Yates,Kirby rp ATL ER K+   INJ     3.25
101 $13 Smith,Will rp ATL ER KK SV   inj-     1.00
107 $12 Romano,Jordan rp TOR ER KK SV   inj- e Rg- 2.25
303 $2 Kittredge,Andrew rp TAM ER KK sv-   INJ   Rg- 3.25
404 -$1 Castillo,Diego rp SEA ER KK sv-   inj-     1.00
159 $8 Doval,Camilo rp SF e K+     EX   2.00
434 -$2 Karinchak,James rp CLE e K+     e   1.00
182 $7 Barlow,Scott rp KC e KK sv-       Rg- 0.25
204 $6 Soto,Gregory rp DET e KK sv-     e   1.00
474 -$3 Johnson,Pierce rp SD e KK sv-   inj- e   2.00
628 -$5 Duffey,Tyler rp MIN e KK sv-         0.00
186 $7 Treinen,Blake rp LA ER KK       Rg- 0.25
411 -$1 Loaisiga,Jonathan rp NYY ER KK   INJ   Rg- 3.25
430 -$2 Bender,Anthony rp MIA ER KK     EX   2.00
485 -$3 Alcala,Jorge rp MIN ER KK     e   1.00
245 $4 Floro,Dylan rp MIA e k sv-       Rg- 0.25
355 $0 Fulmer,Michael rp DET e k sv-   inj-     1.00
137 $10 Melancon,Mark rp ARI ER sv-       Ag Rg- 0.75
298 $2 Reyes,Alex rp STL P K+     e Rg- 1.25
352 $0 Wick,Rowan rp CHC KK sv-   INJ e   4.00
441 -$2 Wells,Tyler rp BAL KK sv-   inj- EX   3.00
617 -$5 Bard,Daniel rp COL KK sv- Rg+     Ag   0.25
682 -$6 Givens,Mychal rp CIN KK sv-   inj-     1.00
367 $0 Kennedy,Ian rp PHI k sv-   INJ   Ag Rg- 3.50
414 -$1 Finnegan,Kyle rp WAS k sv-     e   1.00
484 -$3 Estevez,Carlos rp COL k sv-   inj-     1.00
289 $2 McGee,Jake rp SF sv-   inj-   Rg- 1.25

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Er (Pitching Effectiveness), K (Strikeouts), Sv (Saves), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience),  Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt), Risk cost

True to form, the top closers of a year ago bubble toward the top of draft boards. The (E+,K+,SV) asset group has familiar names: Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias and Ryan Pressly (pictured). Hader is a 3rd round pick while the other two can be had a bit later. None are “cheap”, but that’s 50 percent of the projected primary closer group, according to BABS.

A tick behind (by BABS standards) is Liam Hendriks (E+,K+,sv-). This obviously has little to do with Liam’s elite skills,  but more to do with his asset groupmate/teammate, Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel saved just one game over 23 innings after joining the Sox last season. Corey Knebel boasts similar skills, and enters a Philly bullpen that auditioned a slew of potential options in 2021. Knebel showed he can still sling it, and at ADP 220 seems as good a stab as any to garner save opportunities. 

Desirable assets continue with the (ER,K+,sv-) lot. Risk tolerance will be a big factor here, as Aroldis Chapman, Ken Giles and Trevor Rosenthal all check in as elevated injury risks. David Bednar (ADP 207) is set to offer comparable skills, and probably deserves a spot on the cheatsheet. His entry cost is palatable, if not desirable. Missed out on the first wave of front line guys? Try on Giovanny Gallegos (ADP 114) for size. He could be a solid No. 1 saves guy. 

After Gallegos, we are officially in the weeds. Fantasy managers essentially eschew closers from Gio until we reach ADP 200, with just three selected between ADP 114 and 203. Mark Melancon (ER,sv-) and Scott Barlow (e,KK,sv-) are two of the three, each with their own warts. The third is Kimbrel. Slim pickings, indeed.

As the draft wears on, it becomes a virtual dartboard of who may get saves this season. Since we are compelled to play this game,  it’s  a good idea to pair potential save opportunities with other elite skills. The asset group of (e,K+,sv-) offers many options. This is the Kenley Jansen (ADP 94) profile, so upside is available. Lucas Sims and Matt Barnes are both still around near ADP 270. The price tag is the spoonful of sugar to make the medicine go down. Tanner Rainey (ADP 395) and Peter Fairbanks (ADP 523) have the potential to amass whiffs and some saves at virtually no cost. 

Finally, some blue chip skill profiles that could use some attrition before entering the 9th inning. Nonetheless, worth monitoring are:  Devin Williams (E+,K+) packs Hader-esque assets and should be okay so long as he sticks to baseball instead of boxing. Dustin May, Aaron Bummer and Tejay Antone all sport (E+,KK) profiles. If they can prove healthy, and opportunity presents itself, these assets mirror the likes of Emmanuel Clase and Taylor Rogers. Worth a buck or at least FAAB watchlist consideration. 

Happy hunting!

NOTES: The chart above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.