2022 Post-Hype Prospects

by Curt Brooks

Post-hype prospects are those who have been highly touted early in their careers but have yet to live up to their promise. This article was compiled after reviewing various prospect lists over the past five or so years, focusing primarily on top-25 “ish” players. Of those players, we examine some who have yet to become a star, or a valuable fantasy contributor, with a focus on BABS’s current projections. This article provides the perspective of time and serves as a tool to help assess the current value of a prospect in a fantasy manager’s performance of due diligence.

(MLE ratings from BABS Minor League Ratings Page)

2017

Can a prospect from five years ago still be considered post-hype? Tough call, but Victor Robles (s|-A) may fit the bill. Other than the one $20+ season in 2019, he has never lived up to his (multi-year) top 10 billing. He presently looks to be a contributor in the speed department, although past MLEs (s,A+) suggest he might actually contribute batting average if he can find that lost skill. Also, Clint Frazier (p|-A) has a rating that certainly doesn’t look great, but his 2018 MLE (P+,s,AV) hints at redeeming skills… and sneaky profit?.

2018

Lewis Brinson (-A) doesn’t fare nearly as well in BABS’ eyes for the coming year, carrying an important skill liability. Kolby Allard (|-EK) does not look that strong either but does have MLEs (ER) to suggest he could overcome at least one skill liability. AJ Puk (k) has spent more time in the minors and the IL than the majors over the last few seasons and has no clear path to PT.

2019

On at least one prospect list, Jo Adell (s|-A) was squeezed between No. 1 Vlad and No. 3 Tatis; he’s not mentioned in the same breath as those two any more. Adell’s current ratings do not suggest he will ascend anywhere near those levels this year although recent MLEs (PW|-A) do suggest additional skills. Keston Hiura (PW|-A) carries identical MLEs (PW|-A), suggesting he may be a one-trick pony and he will likely be fighting for playing time on a team full of quality infielders.

Although there are some positive signs, the risks associated with Carter Kieboom (-PA) suggest a wait-and-see approach is in order. Jesus Luzardo (k|-E) is looking to regain the luster on his tarnished star and could contribute if he can resurrect his previous MLEs (ER,k). Sixto Sanchez (e) looks to contribute this year and build on his promising 2020 rookie season.

2020

Gavin Lux (a) has multi-position eligibility with the potential to be a valuable role player, especially given his 2019 MLEs (p,s,AV). Alec Bohm (a) could also be a positive contributor, although he has conflicting MLEs (p|-A), so it suggests a wait-and-see approach may be prudent.

The outlook for MacKenzie Gore (k|-E) has dropped considerably over the past year as he struggles with his command and appears to be destined for another year in the minors. Joey Bart (|-PA) is projected for some PT this year, but caution is suggested given his liabilities and his most recent MLEs (p|-A).

Jarred Kelenic (p), pictured, has proven himself at the AAA level based on his latest MLEs (PW,s,a). He carries the potential for some power (and more) and seems destined for full-time PT this year with Seattle – he certainly bears watching.

Special Category

This category is reserved for two players who have seemingly been on prospect lists for years. Forrest Whitley () and Royce Lewis () still aren’t projected for playing time this season. Both careers have been sidelined by injury and the lost year due to COVID. However, both players are on their respective team’s 40-man roster, so the major league clubs have not yet lost faith in their abilities. Be patient…

Spring training will have much to say about the future of many of the players included here so they bear a close watch. Also, trades and injuries may help (or hinder) the opportunities for some of them.