2022 Players to pass on

by Doug Gruber

Knowing which players to pass on is a crucial element of the BABS draft plan. The asset group rankings help us avoid players being selected in the early rounds, who do not possess sufficient skills — and perhaps also have elevated risk levels — to justify their acquisition costs.

Let’s look at several players in the first dozen rounds of a mixed 15-team format. BABS suggests you cross them off your draft lists at their current cost (though they do become more desirable the further they fall).  The notations after each player name refer to (Asset rating | Risk Cost | #ADP)

Rounds 1-2: After a dreadful 2020 season, Ozzie Albies (p,s,a|5.00|#20) bounced back in a big way, one of a handful of players in 2021 to put up a 30/20 season. A large rise in his launch angle and exit velocity metrics fueled a power boost, at the expense of his BA which fell to .259. BABS agrees that Albies is a talented player, giving him marks in all three asset categories. But these marks are moderate, and for an early second round acquisition tag, BABS recognizes a number of hitters with extreme or significant skills rated well above Albies. Others to Avoid: Manny Machado (p,AV|0|#23), Zack Wheeler (ER,k|0|#23).

Rounds 3-4: Marcus Semien (p,a |0.25|#34) put together an MVP caliber season for the Blue Jays, including career highs in HR (45), RBIs (102) and steals (15), while logging 724 PAs. He cashed in with a new $175 million deal. His draft price now sits at early round 3, one that BABS feels is too lofty. The move from Dunedin/Buffalo/Toronto parks to Globe Life is a major downgrade, and his below average speed skills place the odds against a repeat of double-digit steals. A more likely outcome for Semien would be somewhere between 2021 and his prior year in Oakland, where he struggled to a 7/23/.223 with 4 SBs in 236 PAs. Others to Avoid: Julio Urias (e,k|o.25|#36), Francisco Lindor (p,a|3.00|#49).

Rounds 5-6: Jose Berrios (e,k|0|#75) made enough early impressions in Toronto that he was rewarded with a $130M, 7-year extension. Berrios has been a workhorse, having started 32 games in each of his last three full seasons, reflected in his full-time rating and liability-free ledger. BABS rates his pitching skills as moderate, and the three-year averages in ERA and WHIP of 3.79/1.22 seem to support that rating. And it does not help that he trades an AL-Central schedule for an AL-East. Berrios is dependable, but BABS lists numerous SPs with superior skills available at this point in the draft. Others to Avoid: Eloy Jimenez (p,a|4.00|#63), Jose Altuve (AV|1.00|#73).

Rounds 7-8: Pictured above, most thought the move away from Coors would be harmful to D.J. LeMahieu (AV,-P|2.00|#112); instead, he put together consecutive $30+ seasons upon his arrival in NY. But 2021 was a major fallback, as the elite hard contact disappeared, along with the .300+ batting average, whether due to nagging injuries, advancing age, or both. BABS accepts that LeMahieu’s skills decline is real and advises against a round 8 wager to see if 2021 was an aberration. Others to Avoid: Alex Bregman (p,a|3.00|#91), Carlos Correa (p,a|0|#98).

Rounds 9-10: Mariner Jered Kelenic (p|2.00|#133) was the talk of the baseball prospect world after hitting a HR and a pair of doubles in his second MLB game. Unfortunately, Kelenic only collected five more hits over his next 20 games in what became one of the worst debuts in memory. After a demotion, he worked his way back to the big leagues and had a promising finish with 7 HRs and 3 steals in September. That finish refueled the hype and has kept his 2022 draft price elevated. BABS rates Kelenic as having a bit of power skill, but not much else. Her advice…let someone else use their 9th-round pick to see if he can build on that momentum. Others to Avoid: Miles Straw (S+,-P|2.00|#132), Chris Bassitt (e|1.50|#140).

Rounds 11-12: In 2019, Gleyber Torres (a|3.00|#151) hit 38 HRs in 600 PAs, with 186 Runs+RBIs. Since then, he has collected another 700 PAs, but his production has cratered, with only 12 more long balls across those two seasons. BABS gives Torres a small tick for batting effectiveness, but this skill set is far from that of a top 150 player like he is being drafted. Others to Avoid: Adolis Garcia (p,s,-A|4.25|#165), Marcus Stroman (e|1.25|#175).