2022 Market-playing time inefficiencies

(Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

by Greg Fishwick

If you scan down many of the asset groups, you’ll observe that the marketplace seems to be forgetting about the importance of stockpiling playing time. Against the backdrop of scarcity in several stat categories, along with the disappearance of workhorse innings, it’s still odd to see full-timers buried behind mid-timers in the same groups. This year, we also ask ourselves if dropping down a notch on one or more assets to accumulate more playing time is an effective response to market inefficiencies.

When more of less is better than less of more

In the pitching (ER,K+) group, there are two full-timers and three mid-timers. Four demonstrate the case for getting more IP from a lesser asset rather than risking fewer IP from the higher-risk/higher-skilled group. Full-timer Shane Bieber (ADP 31, Risk Cost $5), pictured, missed the 2nd half with a shoulder strain and showed us 6 IP at season’s end with a velocity 2 MPH lower than his rookie year. Three mid-timers have high Risk Costs: Max Scherzer (18, $3.75), Chris Sale (54, $5) and Shane Baz (139, $2). But just below (ER,K+) and (e,K+) groups is a sweet spot for reliable SP draft targets in (ER,KK): six full-timers with Risk Costs of $3.25 or less and six mid-timers with only Shohei Ohtani’s (8, $5) Risk Cost over $3.25, all within an ADP range of 8-199.

The market has all of the full-timers going ahead of the mid-timers, as it should. The advantage to seek here is not sneaking in a full-timer while others reach for a mid-timer. It’s snagging at least two and maybe three from among full-timers Walker Buehler (16, $3.25), Brandon Woodruff (19,$0), Aaron Nola (40, $0), Kevin Gausman (65, $0.50), Joe Musgrove (79, $1) and Frankie Montas (88,$1). I was delighted to nab Nola at 39, Gausman at 63 and Musgrove at 82 as my first three SPs in my RazzSlam Best Ball draft.

The first notable playing time market inefficiency comes in the (ER,k) asset group. After full-timer Zack Wheeler (23, $0), the market prefers mid-timer Logan Webb (60, $4.25) to full-timer Max Fried (72, $1.00). Heed the Risk Cost and go for Fried. To finish up on the hill, the (e,KK) group is another sweet spot. ADPs range from 42 to 401—an entire draft’s worth! Four full-timers, 13 mid-timers, and three part-timers. Only two Risk Costs above $3.25. The two mid-timers going ahead of full-timers are Freddy Peralta (56, $0.25) and Jack Flaherty (72, $3). Flaherty goes about a round before Luis Castillo (83, $0) and Dylan Cease (85, $1). Peralta precedes Lance Lynn (64, $1.25). Let others pray Peralta realizes his upside with a full-time workload and/or Flaherty bounces back from oblique and shoulder strains. Target Castillo and/or Cease.

Hidden hitters

There are only two hitters in the (p,S+) asset group, but the market is misplaying them by 20 picks. Mid-timer Adalberto Mondesi (58 ADP,$5 Risk Cost) is going before full-timer Jazz Chisholm (77, $2). Royals brass have said they’re not counting on Mondesi to play more than 135 games, so why should you? His career high in AB is 415. Chisholm is the choice.

The massive (p,a) asset group has over 40 hitters, but there are surprisingly few market inefficiencies there. Mid-timer Eddie Rosario (162, $3) should be one of the earlier free agents signed whenever the lockout ends, and with the universal DH, he’s likely to become a full-timer. That would make Marcell Ozuna (214, $3) the only other non-catcher going ahead of any full-timers in the group. It’s possible that his off-field baggage could suppress his PT opportunities, so no need to reach for him ahead of full-timers like Jeimer Candelario (225, $0), Anthony Santander (253, $3), Jesus Aguilar (288, $1), or perhaps even Connor Joe (346, $3).

In the (PW) asset group, there are three full-timers hidden behind mid-timers. Ian Happ (191, $0) is the best of the bunch that also includes Josh Donaldson (210, $3.25) and Andrew McCutchen (340, $1). All three have the OBP boost (*), so OBP or points leaguers should take them over mid-timers Austin Meadows (137, $1), Mike Yastrzemski (278, $1) or Kole Calhoun (477, $3.25). But like Rosario above, mid-timer Jorge Soler (194, $1) is likely to become a full-timer when the lockout dust settles, and that should bump up his ADP past Happ’s.

Lastly, select late-round/dollar day targets from among the 40+ single-asset group (a) and (p) sources without skill liabilities. Among full-timers going behind mid-timers who can bolster BA are a few low-risk hidden gems—some with multi-position eligibility. Give a late look to Kolten Wong (193, $1), 1B/2B Jonathan Schoop (199, $1), Nate Lowe (242, $0), 2B/3B Abraham Toro (258, $1), Nick Solak (395, $1) and veterans David Peralta (478, $0) and Miguel Cabrera (490, $0.25) for BA help. To add a little last-minute power, consider Max Kepler (280, $1), LaMonte Wade, Jr. (306, $2), and Randal Grichuk (368, $0).