2022 BABS targets in Best Ball Leagues

(Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

by Greg Fishwick

With no lineup changes and few FAABs, your Best Ball draft determines your destiny. Fortunately, BABS’ long-term, large-sample emphasis is best suited to drafting, so BABS and Best Ball are a match made in heaven.

As detailed in Points game strategies for 2022, Best Ball points drafts are very different from roto category drafts. Draft preparation depends upon deep analysis and understanding of the point system. As in Best Ball Strategies for 2022, we’ll use the NFBC scoring system for Best Ball and Best Ball Cutline contests to demonstrate how points drive strategy. And you can dig deeper by sorting NFBC ADP for those two contests.

In Best Ball Strategies for 2022, we showed how BABS’ Best Ball screens for hitters and pitchers can build a foundation of positive points. Now let’s use those filters to find some examples.

There are no hitters acing the ratings at (P+,A+), so let’s look at (P+,AV). Fernando Tatis tops that list with (P+,SB,AV). But what if we’re wary of his $3.00 Risk Cost? Among the five (P+,AV) profiles are Bryce Harper, with only a two-bit Risk Cost, and Nick Castellanos, with no Risk Cost. Or we can choose between the two (PW,A+) profiles with no Risk Cost, Freddie Freeman and Juan Soto (pictured). At pick No. 10 in my 2022 RazzSlam Best Ball tournament on NFBC, I was happy to have Harper available. I then found Freeman at pick 15 and Castellanos at pick 34.

Including Speed adds these players:

  • Shohei Ohtani (P+, SB, a) with no Risk Cost
  • Mookie Betts (PW,SB,AV) with $3.00 Risk
  • Byron Buxton (PW,SB,AV) with $3.25 Risk
  • Jose Ramirez (PW,s,AV) with no Risk Cost
  • Kyle Tucker (PW,s,AV) with a $2.00 Risk
  • Trevor Story (PW,SB,a) with no Risk Cost.

In NFBC Best Ball contests, Ohtani counts only at whichever position he scores best for the week, not both. His mid-time (ER,KK) pitching profile might make him the ultimate multi-position player—except for his $5.00 Risk Cost.

Some later-round targets:

  • Full-time catchers Salvador Perez (P+,a), $3.25 and Will Smith (P+,a), $2.00
  • Teoscar Hernandez (PW,s), $3.00
  • Rafael Devers and Paul Goldschmidt (PW,AV) with no Risk Cost
  • Manny Machado (p,AV) and JD Martinez (PW,AV) with no Risk Cost
  • Javier Baez (p,SB,a) with $2.00 Risk
  • Rhys Hoskins and Max Muncy, both (P+a), $3.00 profiles

The next levels of hitting targets can be selected by starting with (PW,a) asset profile groups, adding in any Speed Assets you can find while minimizing Risk Costs. Continue lowering the (Pw) ratings, then the (Av) ratings and repeating the process. Prioritize full-time play, then mid-time play, and manage Risk Costs. Screen out all skills liabilities. The (PW), (p,AV), and (p,a) Asset groups are scheduled for analysis articles in our March 10 Game Plan update and will yield even more examples.

On the pitching side, both of the previous articles in this series describe how to use BABS to filter for pitching targets. Shane Bieber and Chris Sale have identical profiles of (ER,K), Risk Cost $5.00. If forced to choose one, Bieber is projected for more innings. Mid-timer Max Scherzer has the same Assets, plus a potential Pk+ advantage in Citi Field. His $3.75 Risk Cost makes him the most reasonable choice of the three.

Factoring in ADP allows fantasy GMs to triage pitchers up next on their draft lists. For instance, full-timers Walker Buehler, Brandon Woodruff and Aaron Nola are in the same (ER,KK) asset group. But Buehler comes with a Risk Cost of $3.25, while Woodruff and Nola have zero Risk Cost. That moves Buehler down our ranking. Woodruff and Nola have ADPs of 19 and 40, respectively. At 21 picks later than Woodruff, Nola is the preferred target.

Between ADPs 60 and 90 are three more full-timers in the same (ER,KK) group and no more than $1.00 in  Risk Costs: Kevin Gausman, Joe Musgrove and Frankie Montas. If you miss out on Nola, you have three chances to get the same skill set up to three rounds later. If you rostered Nola, you could even double-dip in the full-time (ER,KK) pool. Another similar full-time value is Luis Castillo (e,KK) with zero Risk Cost at an ADP above 80. Points game strategies for 2022, includes some excellent mid-time SP and RP targets  targets as examples around ADP 100.

Limit liability incorporation

Most negative points in Best Ball come from pitchers. It’s the kiss of death to have any of your top nine pitchers contribute negative numbers in any week. Luckily, limiting liabilities is a BABS specialty. She’s the only one identifying skills liabilities and quantifying Risk Cost. BABS’ ratings reveal the following skills liabilities for some fairly popular players, crossing them off Best Ball target lists:

HITTERS 
DJ LeMahieu (-P)
Jean Segura (-P)
Raimel Tapia (-P)
Hunter Renfro (-A)
Matt Chapman (-A)
Garrett Hampson (-A)

PITCHERS
Joe Barlow (-E)
Josiah Gray (-E)
Taijuan Walker (-E)
Cole Irvin (-EK)
Marco Gonzales (-EK)
Dallas Keuchel (-EK)

As noted in Best Ball Strategies for 2022, begin by screening out SP with liabilities in pitching effectiveness (-E), then strikeouts (-K). That makes (-EK) a profile to run away from. The (-E) is worse than the (-K), because pitching effectiveness reflects both earned runs allowed, and hits and walks allowed. The (-K) liability is not subtracting points, but using these soft-tossers makes it impossible to keep up with the plethora of high-K pitchers likely to be on opponents’ rosters. Here are a few more pitchers with ADPs under 375 to penalize:

  • Joe Ryan (k|-E)
  • Jesus Luzardo (k,|E)
  • James Kaprielian (k|-E)
  • Adam Wainwright (e|-K)
  • Aaron Civale (|-K)
  • Casey Mize (|-K)
  • Kyle Hendricks (|-K)
  • Chris Flexen (|-K)

Lastly, on the hitting side, avoid those who lack power (-P), as that is the one overriding asset driving Best Ball points. Hits are also important, as those saddled with (-A) also cannot keep up with the competition. In some cases, however, their assets could outweigh their liabilities, as with (P+|-A) profiles. Again, here are some examples with ADPs under 375:

  • Myles Straw (S+|-P)
  • Keibert Ruiz (a|-P)
  • Amed Rosario (SB,a|-P)
  • Christian Vazquez (a|-P)
  • Nick Madrigal (s,A+|-P)
  • Nicky Lopez (SB,a|-P)
  • Vidal Brujan (S+,a|-P)
  • Luis Arraez (A+|-P)
  • Jonathan Villar (|-P)
  • Joey Bart (|-PA)
  • David Fletcher (s,AV|-P)
  • Miguel Rojas (s,AV|-P)
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa (SB,a|-P)
  • Adam Frazier (AV|-P)
  • Rafael Ortega (SB|-P)
  • Lorenzo Cain (SB,a|-P)
  • Adolis Garcia (p,s|-A)
  • Joey Gallo (P+|-A)
  • Eugenio Suarez (P+|-A)
  • Adam Duvall (P+|-A)
  • Jo Adell (s|-A)
  • Mike Zunino (P+|-A)
  • Gary Sanchez (PW|-A)
  • Miguel Sano (P+|-A)
  • Lane Thomas (|-A)
  • Mark Canha (|-A)
  • Patrick Wisdom (P+|-A)
  • Cavan Biggio (p|-A)
  • Eric Haase (p|-A)
  • Kyle Lewis (p|-A)
  • Max Stassi (|-A)
  • Bobby Bradley (P+|-A)
  • Sam Hilliard (PW,s|-A)
  • Hunter Dozier (p|-A)
  • Brandon Marsh (SB|-A)
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (p|-A)