2022 Asset Group Analysis – (PW)
(Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)
by Pat Cloghessy
Asset groups are a key component of the BABS system. They are our means to assemble players with comparable skills profiles and then review how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. As described in Chapter 2 of The BABS Project 3.1, that’s not always the case. Here is where we can uncover opportunities to build profit into our rosters.
(PW)
| ADP | R$ | BATTER | Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | * | Pk | Rg | Sk- | Inj | Ex | Nw | Ag | Pk | Rg | RISK | |
| 113 | $11 | Contreras,Willson | C | CHC | F | PW | inj- | 1.00 | ||||||||||||
| 137 | $9 | Meadows,Austin | OD | TBR | M | PW | inj- | 1.00 | ||||||||||||
| 191 | $6 | Happ,Ian | O | CHC | F | PW | * | 0 | ||||||||||||
| 194 | $6 | Soler,Jorge | OD | ATL | M | PW | * | Rg+ | inj- | 1.00 | ||||||||||
| 210 | $5 | Donaldson,Josh | 3D | MIN | F | PW | * | INJ | Ag | 3.25 | ||||||||||
| 278 | $2 | Yastrzemski,Mike | O | SFG | M | PW | Rg+ | inj- | 1.00 | |||||||||||
| 340 | $0 | McCutchen,Andrew | O | PHI | F | PW | * | inj- | 1.00 | |||||||||||
| 477 | $(2) | Calhoun,Kole | O | TEX | M | PW | INJ | Nw | 3.25 |
Power-only bats shouldn’t kill your batting average. This is an asset profile that will find its way onto many rosters this season. The group boasts eight players slated as mid- or full-timers.
The set is dominated by outfielders. The aggregate risk profile is low. Josh Donaldson and Kole Calhoun are easily avoidable as the riskiest of the bunch.
The (PW) asset elicits the hope of 30 HR seasons for all members. For a few of them, it wouldn’t be the first time they reached that level. Others haven’t yet, but the skills say it’s possible.
Austin Meadows (pictured) stands out as potentially “overvalued” here. His ADP of 138 is at least 50 spots higher than every other outfielder in the group. Ask yourself if you’d rather spend a 9th rounder on Meadows, or a 13th on Ian Happ or Jorge Soler.
Meadows and Soler have both surpassed 30 HR in prior seasons, Happ hasn’t. Though Happ did hit a career high 25 in 2021. We’re now splitting hairs. The old “errant gust of wind” applies here. A zephyr here and there and Happ has more HR than Meadows in 2022. Who wants odds?
Now approaching three years since Soler’s monstrous 2019 season, we are left to wonder if he can do it again. He returned healthy during the playoffs last season, and it showed. A healthy Soler is a difference-maker. Charges of grand larceny could end up being filed against those that take him in the 190 ADP range.
Mike Yastrzemski struggled through 2021. Injuries played a part, though he still logged 468 ABs. At pick 278, there is certainly room for upside, with little risk. BABS doesn’t think Yastrzemski is the batting average anchor that he was last season. He might still be below average, but a hit or two per month and he’s up near .260. Add 25+ homers and that’s a late round gem, especially if power was sacrificed for speed at the top of the draft.
Willson Contreras is a positional outlier here. With the National League DH in the offing, power-hitting catchers don’t get much better than Willy.