Where to find holds and future saves

(Photo by Juan DeLeon/Icon Sportswire)

by Doug Gruber

Relief pitchers in the (E+,K+) and (ER, K+) asset groups are high impact arms projected for fewer than 85 innings and for fewer than 10 saves. Most all will help in the ERA and WHIP categories, and should also contribute to strikeouts in deep or only-leagues. These arms are very valuable for leagues that use Holds. In standard 12- or 15-team mixed leagues, they make terrific targets to speculate on Saves, as their skills likely put them “next in line” for a 9th inning role. And most important — all have ADPs outside the Top 450.

ADP

PITCHER

Pos

Sk-

Inj

461

$(2)

Betances,Dellin

NYM

E+

K+

Pk+

Rg+

INJ

470

$(2)

Pressly,Ryan

HOU

E+

K+

inj-

999

$(9)

Javier,Cristian

HOU

E+

K+

557

$(3)

Knebel,Corey

MLW

K+

INJ

562

$(4)

Barnes,Matt

BOS

K+

Rg+

606

$(4)

Munoz,Andres

SDP

K+

646

$(5)

Green,Chad

NYY

K+

Rg+

705

$(6)

Kahnle,Tommy

NYY

K+

Rg+

748

$(6)

Adams,Austin L.

SEA

K+

Rg+

INJ

750

$(6)

Castillo,Jose

SDP

K+

INJ

999

$(9)

Mattson,Isaac

BAL

K+

Let’s look first at the (E+,K+) group.

The Astros Ryan Pressly (pictured) had a phenomenal season a year ago. In 54 innings he had a K/9 rate of 12, a BB/9 of 2, and a K%-BB% of 28! His stat line included a 2.32 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and he tied for the MLB lead in holds with 31, with two wins and three saves as frosting. Dellin Betances missed almost all of 2019 with a shoulder injury followed by an Achilles tear, an injury that is still lingering this spring. In the five prior seasons, Betances was elite as he averaged 70 innings with 120 strikeouts; in fact, he has struck out 40 percent of hitters during his career. For the Mets, Betances will begin in a set-up role in front of Edwin Diaz.

BABS says to keep an eye on Cristian Javier. The 22-year-old Astros prospect advanced through three minor league levels where he logged 113 innings with 160 Ks, an ERA below 2.00 and a WHIP below 1.00. Javier was optioned to the minor league camp this spring; he could return as either a starter or reliever.

Moving to the (ER,K+) pitchers…

Corey Knebel missed all last season after undergoing TJS in the spring. In 2017 Knebel saved 39 games for the Brewers while striking out 126 batters in only 76 innings. Expected back by May, Knebel and Josh Hader make for a very formidable back-end duo, and who knows how manager Craig Counsell will utilize the two in the late innings. Matt Barnes started the 2019 season in the Boston closer role, however he struggled with both his control and with gopheritis, eventually losing his position. Barnes still owns that 97+ MPH fastball, and his 110 strikeouts from a year ago were more than many starting pitchers. He also delivered 26 holds.

The Padres have stockpiled several great arms. Andres Munoz regularly exceeds 100 MPH on his fastball, which he combines with a nasty slider. Control is the only flaw in this 21-year-old’s arsenal, as he walked 11 batters in his 23 innings with the Padres. Munoz certainly has the profile for high leverage innings including as a future closer. Jose Castillo was positioned to be the primary setup man in the San Diego bullpen, but a forearm strain and then a torn tendon ruined his 2019 season. Pre-injury, Castillo was virtually unhittable by left-handed batters while holding his own against RHBs. Castillo has started to work in simulated games, with a shot to be ready by opening day.

Chad Green had a horrible start to his 2019 season, resulting in a trip to the minors in late April. Once he returned, Green was lights out for the Yankees, striking out 91 batters in 61 innings to go along with ratios of 2.64/1.08. Green can fill many roles…from an opener to the late innings to a spot starter. Yankees teammate Tommy Kahnle had 27 holds a year ago placing him among the league leaders. Kahnle brings a wicked combination of swinging strikes and ground balls.

Austin Adams split the season between Washington and Seattle where he struck out over 14 batters per 9. Unfortunately, Adams suffered a torn ACL in September. Seattle’s bullpen roles for 2020 are still unknown, with less skillful arms like Matt McGill and Yoshihisa Hirano battling for the 9th inning job. BABS says tuck Adams away on your IL roster if you can, as he should be ready by June. Isaac Mattson arrives in Baltimore as part of the Dylan Bundy trade with the Angels. In 73 innings at three minor league levels, Mattson struck out 110 with a 2.33/1.01 ERA/WHIP, a 4:1 K:BB ratio while hitters batted a measly .184 against him. Given the uncertainty in the Baltimore pen, keep Mattson on your radar.