The 2023 Nouveau Elite

by Pat Cloghessy

Consider this: since 2015 (eight seasons worth of data), an average of just 4.25 players drafted in the first round (by ADP) actually earn that value by season’s end. Figure 11 of the top 15 players come October will have been drafted outside the first round. 

So this should be easy, right? 

Wrong. This is BABS, we like a challenge. A good number of those “outsiders” who end up returning first round/$30 value will have done so previously. 

Today, we’re hunting first-timers. Players who’ve never reached this level of performance. 

Last season in this space, we hit on Yordan Alvarez and Randy Arozarena. Came close with Max Fried. 

We’re trying to front-run here. Some names mentioned below may feel like a reach to return $30 seasons. It’s the nature of the beast. Hard to find gold without digging deep. 

These days, predicting any pitcher to reach the $30 plateau is troublesome; mostly a result of the continuous decline of the starting pitcher in general. The number of $30 arms are in extremely short supply. You’re almost certainly going to need 200+ IP in order to put up the necessary numbers. Last season, Sandy Alcantara came up and did it. And it took him 229 innings. Who might reach those heights this year, for the first time?

Why not Carlos Rodon (ER,K+)? One of the most skilled SP in the game, and he’s been around the $25 mark for the last two seasons. Rodon seems to have shed his “injury-prone” label. BABS tabs him as one of the least risky SP with premium assets. He will enter a media market that has a history of chewing up and spitting out big-ticket players. Does he have the stomach for New York? More importantly, can he pitch in that bandbox? If the answer to those questions is “yes”, wins could be plentiful. The K% is clearly top-tier. The ingredients are there, can Carlos cook?

Was Triston McKenzie (e,KK) over his skis a bit in 2022, or did he arrive early? The big IP jump is cause for concern, but what if he’s a workhorse? Francona seems unafraid to ride his guys (see: Kluber/Bauer/Bieber). The volume appears attainable. Anyway, we’re taking chances here. Boldness is a necessary trait if one wants to reach for the stars. We saw Triston turn in numerous dominant performances last season, many with double-digit Ks. Not saying he’s Alcantara, but he’s in the same “nouveau elite” mold.

If Kyle Schwarber (P+), pictured, keeps his place near the top of the Phillies lineup, a run at first round status could be in play. Done laughing? The range of outcomes for his BA includes something in the .250-.260 neighborhood. He will get on base either way, as evidenced by Kyle’s 100 runs scored in 2022 (.218 BA). The power isn’t going anywhere, and the 10 SB last year sure feel like an outlier. However, if he had some freedom to run under the old rules, can he not reach double digit steals again with the new setup? Again, BOLD. It wouldn’t be the first time a 4th rounder made the leap. Do you hate texting “Another Schwarbomb!” to your friends during the season? BABS doesn’t. 

The old “age-27 breakout” doesn’t carry as much weight as it once did. But there were reasons we incorporated it into our outlook each season. There are still players who develop according to that timeline. Anthony Santander (PW,a) had his breakout in 2022, at 27 years old. Firmly in his prime, is there more in that bat? A full season batting behind the likes of Cedric Mullins, Andy Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson may well get Santander nearer the 100 RBI mark. A few more hits per month/some luck would push the BA well above the .240 mark. If that lines up and Santander pairs a .275ish average with 30/100, he’d be approaching the (PW,AV) asset group, which is chock-full of $30 talent. 

Quick Hits:

Wander Franco’s (s,A+) batting effectiveness is already elite. A potential average well north of .300 sets him on his way to a $20 season. If the power starts to pop, 20/20 isn’t out of the question. First round status may not happen in 2023, but if it does (and it could), an ADP of 91 is risible. 

Cut and paste from 2022, but with a better power asset (sue me):

Jazz Chisolm (PW,S+) can skyrocket. The sub-70% contact rate may hold him back, but if gains are made.. Jazz → New Orleans → French Quarter → Nouveau Elite. Something is brewing here. Ask your Illuminati friend to connect the dots.