How to draft the stats of Didi Gregorius 220 picks later
Is there really a player with Didi Gregorius-caliber numbers that you can get 15 rounds later in the draft? Yes! There are pockets of profit up and down the draft board if you know where to look.
The Broad Assessment Balance Sheet (BABS) is a roster construction system that assigns skill and risk ratings to every player. Then it groups players together with similar profiles, and uses ADPs and auction values to uncover potential profit.
Examples of how it works…
Last year, a trio of thirdbasemen – Evan Longoria, Jake Lamb and Nick Castellanos – were rated as having the same skills profile:
ADP R$ Player Assets Liabilities === === =================== ====== =========== 107 $12 Evan Longoria PW, a 146 $9 Jake Lamb PW, a 206 $6 Nick Castellanos PW, a INJ
BABS provides a risk budget for your team. So if you were willing to absorb Castellanos’ injury risk, you could have rostered a player with the same underlying skills as two others who were being drafted far earlier. That was a 100-pick discount for the same skills profile. And Castellanos ended up far outperforming the other two.
These pitchers also had the same skills profile going into 2017:
ADP R$ Player Assets Liabilities === === =================== ====== =========== 67 $17 Carlos Martinez ER, k 68 $16 Jacob deGRom ER, k INJ 389 -$1 Alex Wood ER, k INJ
Martinez and deGrom were accurately being drafted in the same spot, though the marketplace was not taking any discount on deGrom’s injury risk. But the big winners were those who absorbed Wood’s injury risk and grabbed him in the end game.
ADP R$ Player Assets Liabilities === === =================== ====== =========== 25 $29 Xander Bogaerts s, a 253 $4 Didi Gregorius s, a
This turned out to be a huge profit opportunity. If you compared the industry projections of these two players, you would have found that the difference did not justify the premium you were paying for Bogaerts. Drafters were spending an extra $23 and over 200 draft spots for want of 15-20 points of batting average. That’s a steep price to pay for about 1.5 hits per month.
Every year, there are hundreds of these types of profit opportunities. At RonShandler.com, we have all the tools you need to find these pockets of profit and start building a winning roster in 2018.
To whet your appetite, here are a few from among the hundreds of potential 2018 profit opportunities you’ll find at RonShandler.com:
ADP R$ Player Assets Liabilities === === =================== ====== =========== 18 $29 Aaron Judge P+ inj-, e, Rg 70 $16 Khris Davis P+
Two big hitters who don’t provide more than power productivity stats. But with Judge’s litany of liabilities – minor injury concern, experience and regression – it seems that Davis would be both less expensive and safer, while providing stats well within a range of normal statistical variability.
ADP R$ Player Assets Liabilities === === =================== ====== =========== 31 $24 George Springer p, a 86 $14 Andrew McCutchen p, a Pk, Nw
Here are two from an asset group with almost two dozen players. Andrew McCutchen’s move to San Francisco has depressed his market value, but you’ll pay a four-round/$10 premium for George Springer. If you check out the industry projections for the pair, you’ll see that you’re paying that premium for essentially five additional home runs.
ADP R$ Player Assets Liabilities === === =================== ====== =========== 47 $20 Zack Greinke ER, k 54 $19 Carlos Martinez ER, k 103 $12 Luis Castillo ER, k EX 109 $12 Luke Weaver ER, k EX
Here are four of the 10 pitchers in this asset group. Greinke and Martinez are going at about the same spot and have comparable skills profiles. Castillo and Weaver possess the same underlying skills, but are being drafted far later because of their lack of track record (experience risk). Build that into your roster’s risk budget and you stand to gain huge potential profit.
ADP R$ Player Assets Liabilities === === =================== ====== =========== 113 $11 Didi Gregorius a inj- 333 $1 Brandon Crawford a
Gregorius is back again, but recency bias has now pushed his market value higher. Instead, you can wait 220 picks/$10 for similarly-skilled Brandon Crawford. Not the same, you say? In real terms, the difference between Gregorius and Crawford is about 5 HRs and maybe 10 points of batting average. That’s statistical noise, and certainly not worthy of a 220-pick premium.
There are hundreds more opportunities to leverage market values to find tons of profit potential. Become a member now of RonShandler.com and learn how BABS can make you a winner!
A membership to RonShandler.com gets you all this…
- The BABS Project: Uncovering the Truth About Winning at Fantasy Baseball: This PDF eBook is the core of the Broad Assessment Balance Sheet. It represents a paradigm shift in player evaluation and roster construction, and may change your way of thinking about this game.
- BABS Project updates and ongoing analysis: You’ll get 1-3 articles per week that dig deeper.
- BABS ratings, asset group rankings and cheat sheets for 2018 drafts: The foundation of your draft efforts, updated regularly through the end of March. Here are your profit opportunities!
- Custom reports from the BABS Database: If you are in an AL/NL-only league, want lists sorted alphabetically, by ADP or position, the database can meet your needs.
- Ron’s insights, including all his ESPN Insider columns: Membership here gives you access to the premium Insider articles Ron writes for ESPN.com.
- Members-only message boards: We have a growing community of fantasy leaguers, analysts and BABSians. Ask questions, offer insights, vent – it’s your neighborhood.
- BABS ratings for RotoLab software: The demand for a BABS draft application has reached the best software on the market. Once you try it, you’ll never go back. (Software sold separately.)
- BABS minor league ratings: To provide additional insight into the deeper ends of the player pool, we have BABS ratings for nearly every Double-A and Triple-A player from 2017.
- BABS Baseball leagues: We’ve launched a new fantasy format that incorporates the best parts of BABS while keeping a pulse on the changing baseball environment. You can sign up here; the template is then set up for you at OnRoto.com.
- Commentary, polls, contests and more: More ways to keep you involved!
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