Post-Lockout Frenzy Begins

by Doug Gruber

The Lockout is over! As expected there has been a flurry of player movements via free agent signings and trades. Let’s look at this week’s major transactions that took place, and view those from a BABS perspective for the affected teams and players.

The Cubs and Seiya Suzuki (p,a) reached an agreement, pending his physical, for five years and $85 million, including a full no-trade contract. 

BABS Take: Suzuki has been a star in Japan, including his most recent season when he slugged 38 HRs and earned a batting title. BABS initial rating puts Suzuki in the (p,a) asset group, which is a clear upgrade for the Cubs over other OF options such as Harold Ramirez (a), Jason Heyward (a) and Clint Frazier (p|-A). Suzuki’s draft price will certainly receive a blast of helium, but BABS is investing at the right price.

The Blue Jays acquired 3Bman Matt Chapman (PW|-A) from Oakland for several prospects.

BABS Take: Chapman’s outlook should improve as part of the stacked Toronto lineup. But BABS remains concerned about Chapman’s declining BA skills, especially the 32%+ K-rate for two straight seasons. Despite the scenery change, Chapman should remain off your draft list. Kevin Smith (PW,s), one of the prospects obtained by the A’s, could be one to watch. BABS likes his power and speed skill combo, and now he gets a shot at a starting position.

Kyle Schwarber (PW,a) reached a four-year agreement with the Phillies.

BABS Take: Schwarber was already a BABS draft target at his eighth-round price, and this move to Philly only enhances his value. Invest with confidence!

Anthony Rizzo (a) re-signed with the Yankees for a two-year, $32 million deal.

BABS Take: Rizzo’s move to New York last year did not result in an increase in production, and now he is back for more. Even in the 12th round, BABS says that is still too expensive for Rizzo’s fading skills.

In a surprise development, the Atlanta Braves acquired first baseman Matt Olson (PW,a) from the A’s, and then signed Olson to an eight-year, $168 million extension.

BABS Take: The Freddie Freeman (PW,A+) era in Atlanta ends, and Olson slides immediately into his vacated 1B position. BABS already considered Olson too expensive at his third-round price, and now becomes a clear PASS with the elevated risks from his transition to a new league, new team, and the weight of a huge new contract. For Freeman, another MLB team will wind up with one of BABS’ top-rated hitters…stay tuned. In Oakland, Christian Pache (|-A) is the most recognized name in return package. Pache should be in the mix for a starting OF role, but BABS does not see any skills in his profile that would help your roster.

The Mariners and the Reds struck a major deal, with OF Jesse Winker (p,A+) and 3B Eugenio Suarez (P+|-A) heading to Seattle, with Jake Fraley (p|-A) and Justin Dunn (k|-E) heading to Ohio.

BABS Take: Both Winker and Suarez take a hit with this trade. Winker remains a premium BABS target, but this move is a ballpark downgrade, and carries platoon risk in a deeper Mariners roster. Suarez will also miss the Great American launching pad, and competition from players like Abraham Toro (a) increase the risk of Suarez losing playing time if his BA skills remain a liability. For Cincinnati, both Fraley and Dunn should be in contention for starting roles, but BABS does not rate either as worthy of your consideration.

Andrew McCutchen (PW) agreed to a one-year contract with the Brewers.

BABS Take: McCutchen has been available in the reserve rounds in most drafts, and now his new home is certain. However, he joins a Brewers outfield that is already crowded, including other right-hand sticks such as Hunter Renfroe (PW|-A), Lorenzo Cain (p,s|-A) and Tyrone Taylor (p,SB,a). It may be tough to find full-time ABs in the Milwaukee OF, but Taylor’s skills make him an intriguing speculation.

The Yankees and Twins pulled off a major trade, with Isiah Kiner-Falefa (SB,a|-P), Josh Donaldson (PW) and a catcher prospect heading to the Bronx in exchange for Gary Sanchez (PW|-A) and Gio Urshela (a).

BABS Take: For a few days, it looked like Ryan Jeffers (PW|-A) had become the top catcher in Minnesota when Mitch Garver was dealt to Texas. Enter Sanchez. BABS rates them identical from a skills perspective, making it difficult to target either player. BABS also remains a PASS on Urshela. In New York, on the other hand, Donaldson’s power skills should play well in his new home park but beware a rising ADP due to the Yankee hype. Kiner-Falefa possesses speed and BA skills, but BABS says make sure before you buy that your roster in abundant with power as he brings little pop. Conversely, Kyle Higashioka (P+|-A) is all power and nothing else, but with Sanchez’s removal, he moves into a starting position.

Nelson Cruz (p,a) signed a one-year $15 million deal plus a mutual option to become the DH in Washington.

BABS Take: Cruz has seen his elite skills erode, and he is entering his age 42 season. But he still provides above average power and batting assets, and his price has never been lower. BABS is a buyer.

The Twins acquired right-handed pitcher Sonny Gray (e,KK) from Cincinnati for prospects.

BABS Take: Gray is a major upgrade for the Twins shallow rotation. He had a down year as he battled through injuries. and he should benefit significantly with a move away from Great American, and the shoddy Reds defense where his home ERA was nearly 5.00. BABS was already a buyer based on his asset group and a 175 ADP. Move him further up your board. In Cincinnati, Gray’s departure increases the likelihood that Reds mega-prospect Nick Lodolo (E+,K+) earns a rotation spot. Owning a pair of BABS extreme pitching assets, Lodolo is worth a speculative stash.

The Rangers acquired catcher Mitch Garver (P+,a) from the Twins in exchange for infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa (SB,a|-P).

BABS Take: BABS has Garver rated as one of the top three catchers in MLB, sharing an asset group with Sal Perez and Will Smith. This move should solidify his full-time projection, as Garver could also DH on days off from behind the dish. He is a significant upgrade to the previous trio of Ranger catcher options Jose Trevino (-), Jonah Heim (p|-A) and Sam Huff (PW|-A).

Carlos Rodon (ER,KK) and the Giants agreed to a two-year, $44 million deal.

BABS Take: Rodon has been a bargain in early drafts. He’s been around the 35th SP off the board despite his $27 breakout year, which included ratios of 2.37/0.96 and a 35% K-rate. The Giants spoke with their checkbook that his end-of-year shoulder woes must not be serious, and his new home in pitcher’s haven Oracle Park is a major upgrade. Combined with his asset ratings, BABS cries out to grab Rodon while you still can.

Within 24 hours of the lockout conclusion, the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw (ER,KK) agreed to a one-year, $17 million contract.

BABS Take: No surprise here. The question will be how many innings Kershaw will throw, but BABS continues to rate him as one of the most skillful arms in baseball. His ADP will shoot up from the current 12th round range, but he remains a value versus his asset classmates such as Walker Buehler and Brandon Woodruff.