2022 Asset Group Analysis – (AV)

by Doug Gruber

Asset groups are a key component of the BABS system. They are our means to assemble players with comparable skills profiles and then review how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. As described in Chapter 2 of The BABS Project 3.1, that’s not always the case. Here is where we can uncover opportunities to build profit into our rosters.

(AV)
MARKET BATTER Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av * Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg Risk
74 $15 Altuve,Jose 2 HOU F AV inj- 1.00
120 $11 Cronenworth,Jake 2S1 SDP F AV e 1.00
139 $9 France,Ty 1D2 SEA F AV 0
147 $9 Stephenson,Tyler C1 CIN F AV EX 2.00
158 $8 Verdugo,Alex O BOS F AV 0
198 $6 Gurriel,Yuli 1 HOU F AV Ag Rg- 0.50
239 $4 Blackmon,Charlie O COL F AV Ag 0.25
315 $1 McNeil,Jeff 2O NYM M AV inj- 1.00
363 $0 Hosmer,Eric 1 SDP F AV inj- 1.00
510 $(3) Cooper,Garrett O MIA M AV INJ e Rg- 4.25
518 $(3) Cano,Robinson 2 NYM P AV INJ Ag 3.25
705 $(6) Solano,Donovan 2 SFG M AV INJ 3.00
719 $(6) Estrada,Thairo S SFG P AV EX Rg- 2.25

Players from the (AV) asset group bring significant batting skills, but below average power and speed. BABS thinks a BA of .270-.285 feels about right, which is valuable in today’s game.

As we look at the group overall, two positive qualities stand out. First, eight of the top nine drafted players are all full-timers. And none of the nine have any significant injury risk. BABS says it all seems logical…possess at least one significant skill, stay healthy, play defense…and you will have value. But do they have fantasy value? Let’s look closer.

The market has separated Jose Altuve from the pack, pushing him into the fifth round after his successful season a year ago. BABS is not a believer in the power being sustainable, thanks to average hard-contact and low barrel rates. That makes his price is too high.

It’s not often that a catcher and an “AV” are found together in an asset group, but Tyler Stephenson is the lone backstop with such batting skills in this year’s BABS ratings. The market has pushed him inside the top 10 rounds, a bit rich perhaps, but maybe not in 2-catcher formats.

When looking for the best values in this group, BABS begins with Charlie Blackmon (pictured). Sure, he is not the first rounder of years ago. The steals have already disappeared and now the power has faded, even in Coors. But he still has the batting skills, earned $17 a year ago, and his price is around pick 250.

During 2018-2020, this hitter had a BA of .292, .318, .311. In fact, a year ago, BABS labeled Jeff McNeil as a scarce A+ hitter, and he was drafted inside the top 100. Recency bias from a down season and recent free agent signings by the Mets have pushed McNeil’s price outside Round 20. A return to full health and a more normal hit rate (career low 26% in 2021) could hint at a sneaky profit source for 2022.

All Eric Hosmer seems to do is keep on hitting, yet every off-season brings renewed trade rumors. Hosmer is still being ignored in drafts but it only costs a reserve round pick for a player who has earned $14 or more in his four seasons as a Padre.

The last four have been passed over in early drafts except for 50-round draft and hold leagues. Garrett Cooper has provided brief periods of production in his career, but he can never stay healthy long enough to sustain it. Last year an elbow injury prematurely ended his season in July. With health, and an extra lineup spot with the new NL DH rule, Cooper may be worth an end game dart throw.

Giants infielders Donovan Solano and Thairo Estrada had periods of hot hitting, but have never turned those streaks into a starting position. Worth keeping this pair on your FAAB watch list if playing time opportunities develop.

And what do you know, it’s Robinson Cano. Hard to know what to expect, other than he will be paid a lot of money. But it will not cost you anything to see if he still has the batting skills and a role after his PED hiatus.