2020 Players to Pass On

by Pat Cloghessy

Something funny happened on the way to writing this article. Call it a metaphor for what occurs in fantasy baseball drafts. While attending the Mets open workout in Port St. Lucie, it was readily observable and patently obvious who the biggest draws were not. Not two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom. It wasn’t Thor or the prodigal Yoenis Cespedes. Tim Tebow? Nope. Kids and adults alike wanted to get close to Pete Alonso. They wanted his autograph. Mostly they just wanted to say they were near enough to constitute some semblance of a bond. 

It was FOMO in real life. Those lucky enough to get the Polar Bear’s signature were walking away saying things like, “Okay, we can leave now”. They had their Moby Dick. Mission accomplished. 

That, in a sense, is the Pete Alonso (P+) premium. The enamorization is priced in at ADP 31.

Is he worth it?

Extreme power is not an abundant resource in the BABS database. However, there are others with the same asset mix. Max Muncy at pick 75 or even Miguel Sano at 124 have the skills to approximate a Pete Alonso season. They do not have the star power or the growing legend, but these things don’t matter in Rotisserie standings. 

The stat projections may not agree, but as we know, the stats are out to get you. There are also other players with skills that, in BABS’ view, might vitiate their market value. In other words, BABS might pass on the following players at their current prices. 

Chris Paddack (e,k) is another young stud with high expectations. Most playing time projections (BABS included) for Paddack fall short of 170 innings pitched. Is it worth spending a pick in the 5th round on a mid-time SP with assets that point to moderate impact? Stronger-skilled full-timers like Yu Darvish (e,KK) and Trevor Bauer (e,KK) go later. Same for fellow mid-timer Carlos Carrasco (ADP 109). 

Would you pay a 2nd round price tag for Charlie Blackmon or Josh Bell? How about Jose Abreu or Xander Bogaerts? If the answer was yes, then BABS has a bridge in Brooklyn she’d like to sell you. Otherwise, be advised that BABS sees it as plausible that any one of those players could finish 2020 within gimme territory of Alex Bregman or Rafael Devers at (p,AV). Bregman has his own issues, aside from the many metrics that did not support his 40 HR season in 2019. Devers looks to be a star in the making, but might not be all the way there yet. Will his surprise SB total from a season ago come back for an encore? Lots of change in Boston, including a new manager. 

Adalberto Mondesi (S+) gets a lot of love for his speed, and for good reason. His recovery from off-season shoulder surgery needs to be monitored, because that extra pop has to be part of the draft day cost. Spending a premium pick on a speed-only player who flirts with a sub .300 OBP is always a dangerous game. 

Who attached a moon-bound rocket to Luis Robert’s ADP? Robert’s (p,S+ | -A,EX) overall ADP is 91, but in February alone it sits near 80. There are so many reasons to be excited, but he’s now bordering on a price that would completely disregard any downside. This for a player who has yet to appear in a major league game. Talk about FOMO.

Gleyber Torres (p,a) also deserves a mention. His player history scan provides a good summation on whether or not his skills necessitate a high draft choice.