2020 Asset Group Analysis – (ER,K+,SV/sv-)

Asset groups are how BABS assembles players with comparable skills and then reviews how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. As described in Chapter 2 of The BABS Project 3.0, that’s is not always the case, It is here where we can uncover numerous opportunities to build profit into our rosters.

 

(ER,K+,SV/sv-)
ADP R$ PITCHER Pos Tm PT Er K Sv * Pk Rg Sk- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg
115 $11 Hendriks,Liam rp OAK ER K+ SV Rg-
119 $11 Hand,Brad rp CLE ER K+ SV
132 $10 Jansen,Kenley rp LAD ER K+ SV
148 $9 Neris,Hector rp PHI ER K+ SV
129 $10 Diaz,Edwin rp NYM ER K+ sv- Rg+
141 $9 Smith,Will rp ATL ER K+ sv- Nw
172 $7 Leclerc,Jose rp TEX ER K+ sv-
245 $4 Anderson,Nick rp TBR ER K+ sv- Rg+ EX

BABS bifurcates the (ER,K+,SV/sv-) group between four arms who are projected for 30-plus saves, and the balance, viewed as moderate saves sources between 10-29. The market perceives the collective group similarly, as the ADP range runs from near Round 9 to Round 12, for seven of the eight arms.

Looking at the four significant saves sources, Liam Hendriks ran with the Oakland closer job mid-season and did a fine job nailing down 25 stretch saves, but that’s the extent of his 9th inning track record. Still, he enters 2020 as the frontrunner… Brad Hand goes into 2020 with a firm position as closer as well. The Tribe also got Hand some help with some 7th and 8th inning flamethrowers to alleviate the need for him to work multiple innings that contributed to arm fatigue at the end of last season… Kenley Jansen once again brings his elite skills to the back end of the Dodger pen and although LAD added Blake Treinen, he is not an immediate threat to Jansen unless the incumbent struggles again… In Philadelphia, Hector Neris firmly established his role as closer after injuries to David Robertson, Seranthony Dominguez and others, and he seems as secure as any in the group heading into 2020. He also has the lowest ADP of the three, making Neris an attractive saves target in the 10th round.

Looking at the (sv-) group, BABS envisions great possibilities but also foresees issues that could keep this group from joining the 30+ saves club. Edwin Diaz went from 57 saves, a 1.96 ERA and 124 Ks in 2018 to a mid-five ERA last season, although he still saved 26 games. His skills are still evident despite the 2019 stat line, but the Mets have an arguably stronger pen this year, with options that could unseat Diaz if he struggles again.

Atlanta added Will Smith to an already crowded pen, but BABS says Smith has the best skills of the group. Mark Melancon has been reported as getting the first shot at 9th inning work, but his less dominant (ER,k) profile has BABS a bit more skittish at his ability to hold the role.

Jose Leclerc could only secure 14 saves in Texas last year but starts the new season as most likely to fill the position. The market has discounted Leclerc, and he is an attractive value at his 12th round price… BABS says Nick Anderson has the necessary skills to step into the Rays 9th inning role despite his lack of experience at the back end. Anderson’s ADP of 245 makes him the best value of this asset group, but don’t snooze as his draft position is rising rapidly.